Calling the States
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wrote on 12 Nov 2020, 03:52 last edited by
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wrote on 12 Nov 2020, 04:31 last edited by
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wrote on 12 Nov 2020, 15:06 last edited by
@jon-nyc , what do you think of these numbers?
https://dailycaller.com/2020/11/11/third-parties-spoil-election-states-races-most-affected/
There’s no indication Jorgensen voters would have supported Trump had she not been on the ballot. But the 2020 election may have gone to Trump had even a fraction showed up and voted for the president in a few swing states.
Biden leads Trump by 12,813 votes in Arizona as of Wednesday, according to the Times. While the outcome hasn’t yet been declared by most media organizations, if Trump received roughly 25% of Jorgensen’s 50,636 votes, he would be ahead.
In Georgia, another uncalled state, Trump is down by 14,093 votes as of Wednesday, according to The Times. If 23% of Jorgensen’s 62,053 supporters voted for the president, he would be leading Biden.
And Trump would be ahead of Biden in Pennsylvania, which was called Saturday morning, had he received about 65% of Jorgensen’s 77,942 votes in the state. Biden leads Trump in Pennsylvania by 50,213 as of Wednesday, according to The Times.
Similarly, if Trump would have won 54% of Jorgensen’s 38,271 in Wisconsin, he would be ahead, according to the Times. Biden leads in Wisconsin by 20,539 as of Wednesday.
Both Brian Carroll, of the American Solidarity Party, and Don Blankenship, of the Constitution Party, received more than 5,000 votes in Wisconsin, according to The Times. Nearly 8,000 people voted for write-ins.
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wrote on 12 Nov 2020, 15:19 last edited by jon-nyc 11 Dec 2020, 15:37
Well, it's true as far as it goes but it's a different point that LD and I were discussing.
This is imagining JJ still in the race, but some of her supporters going to Trump. What LD and I were discussing was what might have happened if there had been no third party candidate. In that case you assume some of those votes are going to break for Biden too. Therefore the number of JJ voters Trump needs is larger than just the initial gap.
Let's just play with their first example:
Biden leads Trump by 12,813 votes in Arizona as of Wednesday, according to the Times. While the outcome hasn’t yet been declared by most media organizations, if Trump received roughly 25% of Jorgensen’s 50,636 votes, he would be ahead.
Ok. Imagine JJ isn't in the race and ALL of those voters either go for Biden or Trump.
Trump needs 31,725 of the 50,636 or 63%. Why the difference? Because Trump needs to cover the existing 12k gap PLUS an additional vote for every one Biden gets. (note that Trump getting 31,725 in this example means Biden gets the other 18,911. Those numbers are 12,814 apart - just enough for Trump to cover the original gap with one to spare).
Note also that this assumes ALL the votes she got go instead to either Trump or Biden. If you make the more realistic assumption that some stay home or write in a name, then the percentage Trump needs of the reminder increases further.
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wrote on 12 Nov 2020, 15:25 last edited by jon-nyc 11 Dec 2020, 15:27
Actually I gave them a bit too much credit. Based on the first sentence, they are in fact opining about what would happen if JJ was off the ballot.
They just aren't good at thinking it through. Journos can't really math.
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wrote on 12 Nov 2020, 15:35 last edited by
@George-K said in Calling the States:
the 2020 election may have gone to Trump had even a fraction showed up and voted for the president in a few swing states.
If we had ham we could have ham and eggs for breakfast, if we had any eggs.
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@George-K said in Calling the States:
the 2020 election may have gone to Trump had even a fraction showed up and voted for the president in a few swing states.
If we had ham we could have ham and eggs for breakfast, if we had any eggs.
wrote on 13 Nov 2020, 01:27 last edited by@Catseye3 said in Calling the States:
@George-K said in Calling the States:
the 2020 election may have gone to Trump had even a fraction showed up and voted for the president in a few swing states.
If we had ham we could have ham and eggs for breakfast, if we had any eggs.
LOL
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wrote on 13 Nov 2020, 14:43 last edited by
NYT and all the remaining networks called AZ for Biden.
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wrote on 15 Nov 2020, 23:45 last edited by
AP called everything but GA, 290-232.
FoxNews called everything but GA, 290-232.ABC called all the states, 306-232.
CBS called all the states, 306-232.
DecisionDesk HQ called all the states, 306-232.
NBC called all the states, 306-232.
NYT called all the states, 306-232.
Reuters called all the states, 306-232.
RCP called all the states, 306-232. -
wrote on 16 Nov 2020, 00:34 last edited by
The news media does not pick the winner.
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wrote on 16 Nov 2020, 00:34 last edited by jon-nyc
You’re right. We voters picked Biden. The media is just reporting the fact.
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wrote on 16 Nov 2020, 00:39 last edited by
It's yet to be proven that the voters actually picked Biden.
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AP called everything but GA, 290-232.
FoxNews called everything but GA, 290-232.ABC called all the states, 306-232.
CBS called all the states, 306-232.
DecisionDesk HQ called all the states, 306-232.
NBC called all the states, 306-232.
NYT called all the states, 306-232.
Reuters called all the states, 306-232.
RCP called all the states, 306-232.wrote on 16 Nov 2020, 00:42 last edited by@jon-nyc said in Calling the States:
AP called everything but GA, 290-232 and etc.
Thanks for this update, Jon.
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You’ve moved from denial to bargaining, with occasional signs of decathexis.
That’s progress.
wrote on 16 Nov 2020, 01:10 last edited by@jon-nyc said in Calling the States:
You’ve moved from denial to bargaining, with occasional signs of decathexis.
That’s progress.
Dream on, Alice. I'll send you a get well card when Biden loses and they have to commit you.
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wrote on 25 Nov 2020, 15:47 last edited by
Pennsylvania, Nevada, MN, and NC certify their results.
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wrote on 25 Nov 2020, 15:56 last edited by
And you think that's the end of that, huh.....
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wrote on 25 Nov 2020, 16:11 last edited by
Pretty much.
Trump’s antics will continue. But that’s all they are at this point.
I do hope he appeals his PA case to Scotus. I’m not yet tired of watching him lose.
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wrote on 25 Nov 2020, 16:12 last edited by
Whatever will you do when you find out he lost?
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wrote on 25 Nov 2020, 16:13 last edited by
In Scotus? Laugh my ass off and post about it here.
