The Battleground Thread
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If Teh Donald wins Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina, Nate Silver's model says his chances are 50/50 (more or less):
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/
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If Teh Donald wins Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina, Nate Silver's model says his chances are 50/50 (more or less):
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/
@George-K said in The Battleground Thread:
If Teh Donald wins Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina, Nate Silver's model says his chances are 50/50 (more or less):
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/
If he wins PA, Silver says 61%.
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And RCP just updated PA to Biden +2.9, a 1.3% drop since this morning. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_biden-6861.html
@LuFins-Dad said in The Battleground Thread:
And RCP just updated PA to Biden +2.9, a 1.3% drop since this morning. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_biden-6861.html
And now the average has dropped to 2.5%.
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Over the last few days, Trump's ground game has seemed much stronger than Biden's and actually, I thought Clinton and Co. did a better job last go round in the final week leading up to the election as compared to Biden. Also, when things were trending downward for Trump it seemed like there was a big hit every week on him from a different source. If anything the only hit worth noticing has been the Hunter Biden business - and given the memory of the American public - that's the last thing they heard. It will be an interesting week. The trend is also favorable to Trump as people who think he's behind but close - more likely to stand in line to vote. People who think Biden has it - stay home.
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A Biden win might boil down very simply to Democrat voters hating Biden less than than they hated Clinton. IOW, if they're not crazy about Biden, they'll find it easier to hold their noses for Biden than they did for Clinton.
Success is measured by your discipline and inner peace. – Mike Ditka
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@George-K said in The Battleground Thread:
Someone commented, "If that's what they're saying publicly, what do you think they're saying privately?"
That depends on their reason for saying it publicly. They could be trying to make sure that Biden voters don't stay home because they think he's got it in the bag. On the other hand, they could be panicking.
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I think everyone is trying to get on the record thinking another 2016 surprise might happen. I’d be surprised if Trump even gets 200 electoral votes.
@89th said in The Battleground Thread:
I think everyone is trying to get on the record thinking another 2016 surprise might happen. I’d be surprised if Trump even gets 200 electoral votes
You're not just going to be surprised, you might actually piss yourself.
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Biden's campaign message this week has been 'battle for the soul of the nation'. It's even on his podium. Politicians talking about souls smells like desparation to me.
“I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill
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I think we may need a to institute a Wishful Thinking Index (tm).
It's off the charts at the moment.
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A Biden win might boil down very simply to Democrat voters hating Biden less than than they hated Clinton. IOW, if they're not crazy about Biden, they'll find it easier to hold their noses for Biden than they did for Clinton.
@Catseye3 said in The Battleground Thread:
A Biden win might boil down very simply to Democrat voters hating Biden less than than they hated Clinton. IOW, if they're not crazy about Biden, they'll find it easier to hold their noses for Biden than they did for Clinton.
Agree
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Biden's campaign message this week has been 'battle for the soul of the nation'. It's even on his podium. Politicians talking about souls smells like desparation to me.
@Mik said in The Battleground Thread:
Biden's campaign message this week has been 'battle for the soul of the nation'. It's even on his podium. Politicians talking about souls smells like desparation to me.
But Mik, all politicians do this. President Trump is talking about saving the suburban, he’s talking about protecting America from XYZ. America is under threat, etc.
He may not specifically say “soul” but it is the same thing.
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RCP just dropped Biden down to +1.2 in PA.
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I am not confident in the source... Are these numbers accurate?
https://amgreatness.com/2020/10/30/the-state-of-the-early-vote/
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FiveThirtyEight's model:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/
If Trump takes Georgia and Florida and loses Pennsylvania, he has a 6% chance of winning.
If he wins Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Florida , Silver gives him a 90% chance of winning.
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Cool! For the record, I want a Trump win. Would be fun to see an upset. Would also be fun to see all the upset (see what i did there?) woke folks cry.
@89th said in The Battleground Thread:
Cool! For the record, I want a Trump win. Would be fun to see an upset. Would also be fun to see all the upset (see what i did there?) woke folks cry.
The chances of their disappointment being limited to crying at home is lower than a Trump win itself.
