Rasmussen predicts
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Final NPR Electoral Map: Biden Has The Edge, But Trump Retains Narrow Path
Monday, November 2, 2020 • 4:47 PM EST
The final NPR Electoral College map analysis shows Democrat Joe Biden going into Election Day with the clear edge, while President Trump has a narrow but not impossible path through the states key to winning the presidency.
Among states leaning or likely to go in a particular candidate's direction, Biden leads by 279 electoral votes to Trump's 125. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win a majority of the votes available — and the presidency.
This month, we [NPR] moved Arizona from Lean Democratic to Toss-Up; Texas — after much hesitation — from Lean Republican to Toss-Up; Montana from Likely Republican to Lean Republican; and New Hampshire from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic.
The math is daunting but does not rule Trump out entirely. He is within the margin of error in all seven of the toss-up states and the one toss-up congressional district in Maine.
In Texas and Ohio, Trump currently leads narrowly in the polling averages. In the others — Georgia, Iowa, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona and Maine's 2nd congressional district — Biden leads by about 3 percentage points or less on average.
If all of those go Trump's way, and if all the states leaning toward Biden except Pennsylvania stick with the former vice president, suddenly it would be a 259-to-259 map.
That would make Pennsylvania the decider and it's a state that could take longer to count its vote this year, because it's not used to processing the high amount of mail-in ballots it is receiving this year.
So in short, there's a lot of uncertainty heading into Tuesday. Yes, Biden has been consistently ahead nationally and holds small but consistent leads in the competitive states. But for lots of Democrats, well, they've heard that before.
When all the votes are counted, it's very possible we could see a Biden blowout — or a Trump squeaker.
@Catseye3 said in Rasmussen predicts:
That would make Pennsylvania the decider and it's a state that could take longer to count its vote this year, because it's not used to processing the high amount of mail-in ballots it is receiving this year.
That's not the reason why PA will take longer and it's absurd that they made that claim.
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@Catseye3 said in Rasmussen predicts:
That would make Pennsylvania the decider and it's a state that could take longer to count its vote this year, because it's not used to processing the high amount of mail-in ballots it is receiving this year.
That's not the reason why PA will take longer and it's absurd that they made that claim.
@LuFins-Dad PA just want's to be the Illinois from 1960!
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I’ve said it a million times. Trump has zero chance of winning this.
ZEEE
RO
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@89th said in Rasmussen predicts:
I’ve said it a million times. Trump has zero chance of winning this.
ZEEE
RO
According to 538, there’s 61% chance if Trump takes PA, and he has a solid shot right now...
The Brad
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@89th said in Rasmussen predicts:
I’ve said it a million times. Trump has zero chance of winning this.
ZEEE
RO
According to 538, there’s 61% chance if Trump takes PA, and he has a solid shot right now...
@LuFins-Dad said in Rasmussen predicts:
@89th said in Rasmussen predicts:
I’ve said it a million times. Trump has zero chance of winning this.
ZEEE
RO
According to 538, there’s 61% chance if Trump takes PA, and he has a solid shot right now...
How does 538 rate his chances overall?
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@LuFins-Dad said in Rasmussen predicts:
@89th said in Rasmussen predicts:
I’ve said it a million times. Trump has zero chance of winning this.
ZEEE
RO
According to 538, there’s 61% chance if Trump takes PA, and he has a solid shot right now...
How does 538 rate his chances overall?
@jon-nyc 10%, but that’s where it was when Biden was 6.8% up in PA, they don’t seem to have updated now that the lead has dropped to 2.5%.
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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/pennsylvania/
That’s the Pennsylvania data underlying 538’s forecast.
Compare to the survey data presented by Real Clear Politics:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_biden-6861.html
