Enter your official Electoral Predictions Here
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@Klaus said in Enter your official Electoral Predictions Here:
How about posting real and honest predictions and not the result you wish for?
Biden wins, but it's a lot closer than the polls suggest.
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Ill bite
Biden 329 Trump 209
I gave Trump Texas georgiA and florida
Biden took Ohio NC and Iowa. And Michigan and Wisconsin. And Penn.
@bachophile said in Enter your official Electoral Predictions Here:
Ill bite
Biden 329 Trump 209
I gave Trump Texas georgiA and florida
Biden took Ohio NC and Iowa. And Michigan and Wisconsin. And Penn.
I think we all assume Trump outperforms the polls, the question is by how much. Some people se m to think the pollsters fixed it by adjusting for college vs non-college educated voters. That may help, but I think they are still underestimating the “shy” Trump voter.
After 4 years of reading about physical attacks on people wearing Trump hats, after seeing what happened to the Covington kids, reading stories about businesses being run into the ground because the owner or an employee supports Trump, and all the frigging slander....After 4 years of that crap, do you think people are more likely or less likely to tell a stranger on the phone that they are voting for Trump?
Even so, Trump has been leading or tied in polls in Ohio, Texas, and Iowa so I see him walking away with those. Georgia and NC Trump is within 1-2 points. The big question mark is Pennsylvania. Trump is at a significant polling disadvantage there, but the news on the ground is all Trump and Biden surely hurt himself in PA with the last debate, yet the polls didn’t change one iota. No way that happens. That makes me think there is a major issue with polling in that state.
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@bachophile said in Enter your official Electoral Predictions Here:
Ill bite
Biden 329 Trump 209
I gave Trump Texas georgiA and florida
Biden took Ohio NC and Iowa. And Michigan and Wisconsin. And Penn.
I think we all assume Trump outperforms the polls, the question is by how much. Some people se m to think the pollsters fixed it by adjusting for college vs non-college educated voters. That may help, but I think they are still underestimating the “shy” Trump voter.
After 4 years of reading about physical attacks on people wearing Trump hats, after seeing what happened to the Covington kids, reading stories about businesses being run into the ground because the owner or an employee supports Trump, and all the frigging slander....After 4 years of that crap, do you think people are more likely or less likely to tell a stranger on the phone that they are voting for Trump?
Even so, Trump has been leading or tied in polls in Ohio, Texas, and Iowa so I see him walking away with those. Georgia and NC Trump is within 1-2 points. The big question mark is Pennsylvania. Trump is at a significant polling disadvantage there, but the news on the ground is all Trump and Biden surely hurt himself in PA with the last debate, yet the polls didn’t change one iota. No way that happens. That makes me think there is a major issue with polling in that state.
Here is the hope for Trump supporters:
The universe of nonvoters is vast. Nationwide, 4 in 10 of those eligible did not vote in 2016. According to Brookings Institution demographer William Frey, more than 21 million nonvoters in 2016 were non-college-educated white men, Trump’s base. In Wisconsin, which is 81% non-Hispanic white, 459,000 non-college-educated white men didn’t vote in 2016. Trump won non-college-educated white men nationwide by an astounding 50 points. A modest rise in their turnout in key states in 2020 could swamp the Democratic nominee.
The hope in PA is that non college educated white man who work in fracking got scared enough by Biden to actually come out and vote-at scale.
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OK, here's another category for prediction - when will we know the results?
“I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill
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I agree
Lots of Trump bluster on dragging to the courts but I think there will be a clear winner by wed daytime.
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@LuFins-Dad said in Enter your official Electoral Predictions Here:
Trump 279 - Biden 259
I think Trump takes PA, Ohio, Florida, Georgia, NC, Texas, Arizona, and Iowa.
Interesting that you are including TX and GA.
@jon-nyc said in Enter your official Electoral Predictions Here:
@LuFins-Dad said in Enter your official Electoral Predictions Here:
Trump 279 - Biden 259
I think Trump takes PA, Ohio, Florida, Georgia, NC, Texas, Arizona, and Iowa.
Interesting that you are including TX and GA.
Texas and Georgia are two states the democrats dream of winning and try to talk up every election. Texas has seen a huge influx of Californians who left california because of the mess democrats have made of that state, and the dumbassed have brought their politics with them. Not enough to win the state, however. Texas remains a democrat wet dream. Georgia has a large black population which the democrats keep hoping every election will give them that state, but not only will that not happen, Trump will get between 20% and 30% of the black vote nationally this election. Both texas and georgia will go to Trump.
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Donald Trump will furiously try to stop the vote count in Pennsylvania.
"You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
-Cormac McCarthy -
@Mik said in Enter your official Electoral Predictions Here:
OK, here's another category for prediction - when will we know the results?
I think Trump will concede by the weekend.
@89th said in Enter your official Electoral Predictions Here:
@Mik said in Enter your official Electoral Predictions Here:
OK, here's another category for prediction - when will we know the results?
I think Trump will concede by the weekend.
Why are you so determined to see our country get flushed down the toilet?
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It’s a two step process. He has to get past FL, AZ and N.C. for PA to be relevant.
Valiant effort at the end but it’s going to be too little to late.
The story will be how peaceful all this was and all the fear mongering was a waste of people’s brains. <— my firmest prediction.
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FWIW, Trump is the first to whiff Dixville Knox since McGovern.
"You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
-Cormac McCarthy -
It’s a two step process. He has to get past FL, AZ and N.C. for PA to be relevant.
Valiant effort at the end but it’s going to be too little to late.
The story will be how peaceful all this was and all the fear mongering was a waste of people’s brains. <— my firmest prediction.
@Loki said in Enter your official Electoral Predictions Here:
The story will be how peaceful all this was and all the fear mongering was a waste of people’s brains. <— my firmest prediction.
Agree.
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@jon-nyc said in Enter your official Electoral Predictions Here:
FWIW, Trump is the first to whiff Dixville Knox since McGovern.
Dixieville Knox still has 150,000 mail in ballots to count.
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It’s a two step process. He has to get past FL, AZ and N.C. for PA to be relevant.
Valiant effort at the end but it’s going to be too little to late.
The story will be how peaceful all this was and all the fear mongering was a waste of people’s brains. <— my firmest prediction.
@Loki said in Enter your official Electoral Predictions Here:
It’s a two step process. He has to get past FL, AZ and N.C. for PA to be relevant.
Valiant effort at the end but it’s going to be too little to late.
The story will be how peaceful all this was and all the fear mongering was a waste of people’s brains. <— my firmest prediction.
We shall see. Momentum shifts in polls are lagging indicators. If that still holds true, that would imply that Trump is well ahead in most of the important battlegrounds. Even the polls with Biden still in the lead showed the race tightening and Trump is within the margin of error...
