Enter your official Electoral Predictions Here
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@89th said in Enter your official Electoral Predictions Here:
I could see it Biden 400 to Trump 138, but will stick with 335/203.
Latest polls show a huge shift in favor of Trump. Supposedly most of the democrats who plan to vote have already voted, most of the republicans who plan to vote say they will vote on the 3rd. Then consider the large number of democrats who are walking away from the democrat party and will vote for Trump this election......
Of course, there's no telling how many dead voters there will be this time.....
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I can't imagine even one person voting for Mr. Biden
I don't believe any of the polls, sometimes I wish I could, but I have no faith in them at all. None.
If I don't believe the polls, how could I possibly make any kind of reasonable estimate at all? I have no source.
Having no reasonable expectation is the only possible honest prediction.
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Biden wins is my prediction.
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@89th said in Enter your official Electoral Predictions Here:
Biden 335
Trump 203This is the direction I am going. But I think it will be closer - maybe 300 - 250 in favor of VP Biden
From what I have been read, President Trump has to win X state, Y state, and Z state, etc. If even one of those does not work then it will be difficult for him to win overall.
VP Biden can possibly lose X state, and maybe even Y state, but can still win overall.
A bit more flexibility for him.
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Biden wins is my prediction.
@Aqua-Letifer said in Enter your official Electoral Predictions Here:
Biden wins is my prediction.
Mine too.
If Tump is doing well he will take Florida.
If that happens then 50/50 we have wait for PA.
North Carolina and Arizona are the only other two to really watch if you believe there will be drama.
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Trump 279 - Biden 259
I think Trump takes PA, Ohio, Florida, Georgia, NC, Texas, Arizona, and Iowa.
@LuFins-Dad said in Enter your official Electoral Predictions Here:
Trump 279 - Biden 259
I think Trump takes PA, Ohio, Florida, Georgia, NC, Texas, Arizona, and Iowa.
Interesting that you are including TX and GA.
"You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
-Cormac McCarthy -
Ill bite
Biden 329 Trump 209
I gave Trump Texas georgiA and florida
Biden took Ohio NC and Iowa. And Michigan and Wisconsin. And Penn.
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Btw what would be considered an electoral college landslide?
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@Klaus said in Enter your official Electoral Predictions Here:
How about posting real and honest predictions and not the result you wish for?
Biden wins, but it's a lot closer than the polls suggest.
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Ill bite
Biden 329 Trump 209
I gave Trump Texas georgiA and florida
Biden took Ohio NC and Iowa. And Michigan and Wisconsin. And Penn.
@bachophile said in Enter your official Electoral Predictions Here:
Ill bite
Biden 329 Trump 209
I gave Trump Texas georgiA and florida
Biden took Ohio NC and Iowa. And Michigan and Wisconsin. And Penn.
I think we all assume Trump outperforms the polls, the question is by how much. Some people se m to think the pollsters fixed it by adjusting for college vs non-college educated voters. That may help, but I think they are still underestimating the “shy” Trump voter.
After 4 years of reading about physical attacks on people wearing Trump hats, after seeing what happened to the Covington kids, reading stories about businesses being run into the ground because the owner or an employee supports Trump, and all the frigging slander....After 4 years of that crap, do you think people are more likely or less likely to tell a stranger on the phone that they are voting for Trump?
Even so, Trump has been leading or tied in polls in Ohio, Texas, and Iowa so I see him walking away with those. Georgia and NC Trump is within 1-2 points. The big question mark is Pennsylvania. Trump is at a significant polling disadvantage there, but the news on the ground is all Trump and Biden surely hurt himself in PA with the last debate, yet the polls didn’t change one iota. No way that happens. That makes me think there is a major issue with polling in that state.
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@bachophile said in Enter your official Electoral Predictions Here:
Ill bite
Biden 329 Trump 209
I gave Trump Texas georgiA and florida
Biden took Ohio NC and Iowa. And Michigan and Wisconsin. And Penn.
I think we all assume Trump outperforms the polls, the question is by how much. Some people se m to think the pollsters fixed it by adjusting for college vs non-college educated voters. That may help, but I think they are still underestimating the “shy” Trump voter.
After 4 years of reading about physical attacks on people wearing Trump hats, after seeing what happened to the Covington kids, reading stories about businesses being run into the ground because the owner or an employee supports Trump, and all the frigging slander....After 4 years of that crap, do you think people are more likely or less likely to tell a stranger on the phone that they are voting for Trump?
Even so, Trump has been leading or tied in polls in Ohio, Texas, and Iowa so I see him walking away with those. Georgia and NC Trump is within 1-2 points. The big question mark is Pennsylvania. Trump is at a significant polling disadvantage there, but the news on the ground is all Trump and Biden surely hurt himself in PA with the last debate, yet the polls didn’t change one iota. No way that happens. That makes me think there is a major issue with polling in that state.
Here is the hope for Trump supporters:
The universe of nonvoters is vast. Nationwide, 4 in 10 of those eligible did not vote in 2016. According to Brookings Institution demographer William Frey, more than 21 million nonvoters in 2016 were non-college-educated white men, Trump’s base. In Wisconsin, which is 81% non-Hispanic white, 459,000 non-college-educated white men didn’t vote in 2016. Trump won non-college-educated white men nationwide by an astounding 50 points. A modest rise in their turnout in key states in 2020 could swamp the Democratic nominee.
The hope in PA is that non college educated white man who work in fracking got scared enough by Biden to actually come out and vote-at scale.
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OK, here's another category for prediction - when will we know the results?
“I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill
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I agree
Lots of Trump bluster on dragging to the courts but I think there will be a clear winner by wed daytime.
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@LuFins-Dad said in Enter your official Electoral Predictions Here:
Trump 279 - Biden 259
I think Trump takes PA, Ohio, Florida, Georgia, NC, Texas, Arizona, and Iowa.
Interesting that you are including TX and GA.
@jon-nyc said in Enter your official Electoral Predictions Here:
@LuFins-Dad said in Enter your official Electoral Predictions Here:
Trump 279 - Biden 259
I think Trump takes PA, Ohio, Florida, Georgia, NC, Texas, Arizona, and Iowa.
Interesting that you are including TX and GA.
Texas and Georgia are two states the democrats dream of winning and try to talk up every election. Texas has seen a huge influx of Californians who left california because of the mess democrats have made of that state, and the dumbassed have brought their politics with them. Not enough to win the state, however. Texas remains a democrat wet dream. Georgia has a large black population which the democrats keep hoping every election will give them that state, but not only will that not happen, Trump will get between 20% and 30% of the black vote nationally this election. Both texas and georgia will go to Trump.
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Donald Trump will furiously try to stop the vote count in Pennsylvania.
"You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
-Cormac McCarthy
