Puzzle time - who’s bullet?
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I have a similar puzzle for Jon.
Jon sends us a recording of a Rachmaninoff etude and tells us that it is a recording from him.
Jon is a trustworthy forum member, so before listening we are 99% confident that Jon tells the truth and didn't actually send us a recording by Klaus (which would be flawless).
However, we also know that the probability that Jon hits a correct note is only 40%.
We start listening to the 10 first notes. They are all correct.
What's the likelihood that it is indeed Jon's recording?
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