Question for Taiwan girl
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In response to your kind wishes to me to stay safe, I would like to ask you…
Not sure if you are permanently based in Taiwan but if so, are you concerned about a possible Chinese move against Taiwan, especially when the eyes of the world are elsewhere, and I don’t really know where DJT stands on this if there were an incursion….
I’m sure it’s something you have thought about, how much is it on your mind?
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Not permanently in Taiwan, but honestly, not really an issue. Aware of it, hope it doesn't happen, but people have not really changed anything because of it.
Mainland China has always been the "big gorilla" looking at us. Maybe kind of like Isreal, but normal people just can't stay on alert for days/months/years at a time. Use common sense, but at some point, you just need to get on with your life.
Taiwan was actually under martial law until 1987, so there always was that background "fear", and since then , things have opened up, but China has been continually making noises. Every few years, they seem to rise tensions, and then it goes down.
It does seem a bit more serious this time, but not really noticeable. I was in Taiwan Dec/Jan and things I noticed were almost constant flight drills (hearing the sonic booms) and designations around towns about location of bomb shelters and what to do in case of that. But life goes on.
Most difficult I think for the military. China is good about pushing boats and planes right up to the edge of the country line. Taiwan has to respond, but since China is so much bigger, there is a lot more stress on our pilots/captains, etc. than on them.
Regarding President Trump - during his first term, he was saying all the right things in regards to Taiwan and China. Even President Biden said the right things. Now, as you say, attention is elsewhere, and I think the US public would not be so quick to back another "foreign war".
Just my personal opinion, but I dont think that a takeover of Taiwan would be easy and there would be less than 50% chance of being successful.
- Taiwan is 2/3 mountains (kind of like Korea) and is not very friendly to an offensive fight.
- In addition, I am not sure that the Chinese public really "has the stomach" for something like that. China had the one child policy for a long time, so most of the military age men are the single child of single child parents. So, this one person is the focus of 2 or 3 generations. If they start coming back dead, there may be some public unrest internally against the mainland Chinese govt.
- Also, the Taiwan strait is about 150 km(90 miles) or so from mainland China to Taiwan. Not easy to keep supplies going across that.
- Lastly, when people are defending their country, that is a "power boost" to your abilities. (Kind of like the US and Vietnam from what I have read)
So, I think that China would probably try to blockade us rather than physically invade. If this happened, I would hope that countries would respond, at a minimum, with economic sanctions.
(Fun fact, when I was in college, it was mandatory to drill with guns and learn how to shoot them in case of an invasion. This was an all girls school, so it is pretty doubtful we would have had any effect other than to slow the Taiwan advance by a nano second. LOL)
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Thanks that was fascinating
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Fun fact, when I was in college, it was mandatory to drill with guns and learn how to shoot them in case of an invasion.
Alright, everybody keep that in mind and nobody messes with @taiwan_girl .
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Taiwan Girl:
Thank you. It's your and Bach's and other peoples first hand, real life, real world understanding of the political situations that happen around the world that make TNCR the cool place that it is. You are much appreciated. -
Taiwan Girl:
Thank you. It's your and Bach's and other peoples first hand, real life, real world understanding of the political situations that happen around the world that make TNCR the cool place that it is. You are much appreciated.@Tom-K said in Question for Taiwan girl:
Taiwan Girl:
Thank you. It's your and Bach's and other peoples first hand, real life, real world understanding of the political situations that happen around the world that make TNCR the cool place that it is. You are much appreciated.Big fucking help 89 was with the Minnesota stuff. All he could tell us was the coordinates where the ICE goons killed the Americans.
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https://www.thetimes.com/world/asia/article/china-taiwan-trump-invasion-l8xwr2fr0
China has all but stopped sending military aircraft into the skies around Taiwan, in an abrupt cessation of pressure that is adding to uncertainty about Beijing’s intentions at one of the world’s most dangerous potential flashpoints.
Since 2020, aircraft of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) have been active most days around Taiwan, part of a strategy of military pressure. Beijing claims the self-ruling island as its own territory and refuses to rule out “reunifying” by military force.
But according to monitoring by Taiwan, there were no military aircraft near the island on nine of the ten-day period between February 27 and last Sunday, although the presence of naval vessels continued at previous levels.
There could be various explanations for the sudden silence in the skies, including a recent purge by President Xi of high-ranking military officers and ongoing party meetings in Beijing. The most alarming suggestion is that the PLA is servicing its aircraft in preparation for an attack on Taiwan, although there is no other obvious sign that this is about to happen.
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https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2026-Unclassified-Report.pdf
(I think this version is readable by everyone.)
Page 22 is in regards to Taiwan and China. Bottom line, they do not think that China will do anything in the next couple of years. (Of course, this was written prior to everything happening in the Middle East.)
In 2026, Beijing probably will continue seeking to set the conditions for eventual unification with Taiwan short of conflict. China, despite its threat to use force to compel unification if necessary and to counter what it sees as a U.S. attempt to use Taiwan to undermine China’s rise, prefers to achieve unification without the use of force, if possible. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) also continues to develop military plans and capabilities for attempting to achieve unification using military force if directed to do so.
The PLA probably is making steady but uneven progress on capabilities that it would use in any attempt to seize Taiwan and deter—and, if necessary, defeat—U.S. military intervention. At times, it has increased the scope, size, and pace of operations around Taiwan.
• The IC assesses that Chinese leaders do not currently plan to execute an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, nor do they have a fixed timeline for achieving unification. However, China publicly insists that unification with Taiwan is required to achieve its goal of “national rejuvenation” by 2049—the 100th year anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Beijing almost certainly will consider a variety of factors in deciding whether and how to pursue military approaches to unification, including PLA readiness, the actions and politics of
Taiwan, and whether or not the U.S. will militarily intervene on Taiwan’s behalf.• Chinese officials recognize that an amphibious invasion of Taiwan would be extremely challenging and carry a high risk of failure, especially in the event of U.S. intervention.
A conflict between China and Taiwan may disrupt U.S. access to trade and semiconductor technology critical to the global economy. If the U.S. were to intervene, it probably would face significant but recoverable disruptions to its transportation sector from Chinese cyber attacks. Even without Washington’s involvement, U.S. and global economic and security interests would face significant and costly consequences, with tech supply chains disrupted and investor fear across markets. In addition, a protracted war with the U.S. risks unprecedented economic costs to the U.S., Chinese, and global economies.
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