Anybody Have Mexico Vacation Plans in the Near Future?
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https://www.ft.com/content/82012a4c-2cfa-49f2-b833-11632c78761fMexico’s military intelligence followed a girlfriend of Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera to locate the cartel kingpin, who then died after a shootout with his security detail, officials said.
Defence minister General Ricardo Trevilla Trejo said on Monday that authorities, relying on a mix of Mexican and US intelligence, had located “a trusted associate of one of El Mencho’s romantic partners” on Saturday, who then took her to a building in Tapalpa, Jalisco state.
“There, this partner met with El Mencho, and on February 21 she left the premises,” Trevilla added. “Information was obtained indicating that El Mencho remained at the location, surrounded by a security detail. The operation was planned that same day.”
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Polymarket’s been around long enough that we should have an idea of its accuracy. What % of the time does a thing happen when polymarket claims it has an x% chance of happening?
Would need confidence intervals to really make sense of that statistic. If it takes a million predictions to average out to accuracy, any individual one wouldn’t mean much.
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Polymarket’s been around long enough that we should have an idea of its accuracy. What % of the time does a thing happen when polymarket claims it has an x% chance of happening?
Would need confidence intervals to really make sense of that statistic. If it takes a million predictions to average out to accuracy, any individual one wouldn’t mean much.
@Horace said in Anybody Have Mexico Vacation Plans in the Near Future?:
What % of the time does a thing happen when polymarket claims it has an x% chance of happening?
Things that are predicted to happen 20% of the time have a 50% chance of happening 20% of the time, plus or minus 40%, with a confidence level of about 70%.
Or, as Trump would say, there's a three million percent chance of this happening.
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I was in Puerto Vallarta a year ago just about now. One of my daughters and her friends planned a week "party with with family" a nice idea, basically. BUT the town was full of old farts drinking, f***ing and wearing the littlest of Speedos. The restaurants were over all very good and lots of cheep liquor, but the ugly American population was a real embarrassment. I felt really bad for the poor Mexican people that have to see what pigs Americans can be.
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I was in Puerto Vallarta a year ago just about now. One of my daughters and her friends planned a week "party with with family" a nice idea, basically. BUT the town was full of old farts drinking, f***ing and wearing the littlest of Speedos. The restaurants were over all very good and lots of cheep liquor, but the ugly American population was a real embarrassment. I felt really bad for the poor Mexican people that have to see what pigs Americans can be.
@Tom-K LOL. Based on your review and what is currently happening, I dont think I will be heading there anytime soon.
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I have to admit my ignorant and say that I had never heard before of El Mencho. I had heard of other drug kingpins, but never him.
I suppose maybe he was a bit more "low key" than the others.
@taiwan_girl said in Anybody Have Mexico Vacation Plans in the Near Future?:
I have to admit my ignorant and say that I had never heard before of El Mencho. I had heard of other drug kingpins, but never him.
I suppose maybe he was a bit more "low key" than the others.
If one is a wise cartel leader that is desirable.
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Totally unrelated but I guess related. I've only been to Mexico once. It was 1999 and I was traveling there with my church youth group as a 17 year old to volunteer at an orphanage. It was located in Morelia and it was also my first international trip (and first flight). I recall landing at night and the smell of cool fresh spring air as I got off the plane on the tarmac was mesmerizing and so refreshing.
The orphanage work was rewarding, about 25 very cute young kids, we rebuilt their playground, yard, etc. It was located in the middle of the rural countryside, next to a horse farm. The people were beyond nice. I remember seeing signs for Coca-Cola everywhere, like...dirt road for 10 miles but in the middle is a shack that sells... Coca-Cola. How funny. I was too young to know much about any potential violence or risk there. Perhaps it's a bias from my first big trip but the country really made an impression, beautiful country, beautiful people, beautiful food... countries like that (and Cuba for example) are a shame they don't realize the potential they have with their culture/food/geography.
Anyway, a bit of a ramble. I should look up that orphanage to see if it's still doing well. I guess kids there are now in their late 20's.
Side note: In our hotel one of our fellow youth group kids brought out a 6 pack of beer or something. It was the first time most of us ever had a taste of alcohol, lol. Kids will be kids....
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Wow, sorry for the derail. I just did some random searching, I recalled a dormant (I hope) volcano on the left so I knew it was north of the city. Very first place I clicked on I found it. The sod is doing well. The area around it is much more rundown and poor than I remember, funny how the brain works.
EDIT: Found the website. What are the odds, the founder lives in Minnesota! https://moreliahomeforchildren.org/gallery/
