AMZN
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Amazon stock has been hit pretty hard in the tech selloff. Lots of talk of software being disrupted, but massive infrastructure tech companies like AMZN and AAPL are relatively immune from competition from an AI genius in their basement. You can't build all that global production or shipping capacity with a few Claude prompts. Maybe there is a reasonable point that pure software companies are at risk, but this selloff has hit everybody. I'm calling AMZN as a good play, as well as AAPL. But AAPL hasn't really sold off, because the market probably agrees that a basement prompt wizard isn't going to compete with them any time soon.
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It should be a good short term play, with a 15-20% return relatively quickly, but I wonder about how much of the sell off is due to AWS?
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I should admit that my "analysis" might suffer from the common flaw that just because a stock has gotten cheaper, it doesn't mean it's cheap. Maybe AMZN was hugely overvalued at its peak, from which it's lost about 20% in the recent selloff. I'm just betting not.
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An underlying problem AMZN faces is over saturation. There’s not a lot of room for their shipping platform or entertainment platforms to grow. AWS is pretty well maxed, too. And it’s not worried about the kid in the basement, its challenge is Google. Google is buying up data centers while AWS is leasing… Many of AWS leases are coming due, while Google is purchasing and making offers to purchase the preexisting centers.
