Sam Harris on the economy post AI

[Horace]

Speaking about a prediction from someone in the know that the majority of white collar jobs will be replaceable by AI within 12 to 18 months. Echoes my thoughts. One worry he doesn’t mention is that our politics don’t move fast enough to react to this immense and sudden change.

Link to video

[jon-nyc]

Haven’t listened yet but I will. Meanwhile this comment on MSFT video is funny.

[Doctor Phibes]

I suspect we're going to be 12-18 months away from this happening for quite a few years.

[Horace]

In fairness, he only said that AI "could" do those jobs, rather than "would". Companies will tread carefully, I'm sure. I suspect this will mostly play out, in the near term, with companies just not hiring new people as much.

[jon-nyc]

I think it was Altman who said ‘if you can work remotely, AI can do your job’. He wasn’t implying today but soon in context.

[89th]

@Doctor-Phibes said in Sam Harris on the economy post AI:

I suspect we're going to be 12-18 months away from this happening for quite a few years.

Yeah but it’s like hearing a monster’s footsteps but not know how far away they are. Just this week I was wondering when my lawyer neighbor or my financial analyst neighbor, how soon will they be directly impacted.

My work is currently in cybersecurity, we are using (and defending against) AI so in that sense I’m insulated a bit, but I am getting the general hunch that to thrive in the coming years it’ll be necessary to be the “he knows how to prompt and use AI the best” guy in the room.

[Horace]

It will be interesting if it comes to pass that huge companies are run almost entirely by AI. The tax structure on all those profits will have to be modified. This has been the obvious end point of technological advancement forever, but now we see it actually happening. Technology concentrates wealth, and you can't have an economy with almost all the wealth funneling to a few. The masses need wealth to buy stuff after all.

[jon-nyc]

Andreesen talks about a ‘one-person unicorn’ - the idea that a company with just a founder and AI agents arrives at a billion dollar valuation. Sitoshi is the closest we have to a real life example so far.

[Horace]

And such companies will have no need to ever go public, which enhances the wealth concentration.

[jon-nyc]

Maybe. VCs are still going to want to exit at some point.