Prediction markets
-
I know folks like @jon-nyc have referenced polymarket (competitor is Kalshi) which are basically prediction markets for anything...current events, sports, nature, etc. Pretty sure the concept will grow 100x bigger and be very much a common phrase as it pulses "the world" (or whoever wants to place a bet) on events which makes it an interesting form of journalism/poll taking.
The idea is pretty simple, btw. The odds of something happening break down into "YES" or "NO" and the % likelihood decreases how much you make, with $1.00 being the max price of something. For example, if you think Vance will win the GOP nomination and the odds are at 75%, then if you bet $100 you would make $25 profit (or lose it all, if he doesn't become the nominee). I believe you can also sell your bets as the % (price) goes up and down for an event, making it like a prediction stock market, of sorts.
Anyway...I'd imagine eventually it will be regulated to minimize inside trading. For example, during a Coinbase investors call, there were bets on what key words the founder would say during the talk and at the end he was told about the bed so he just recited the 5 key words then ended the call. Bet won.
-
I bet some cash on the Seahawks doing well this weekend. Leading first half, leading by 10.5, winning, etc... It simplifies sports betting sort of. I also put some cash on Newsom and Vance winning their nominations. I wish there was one about NASA not landing on the moon until at least 2030 (2-3 years late) as I would take that in a heartbeat. Anyway, just did a little cash for fun. Similar to the sport betting apps I'm sure I'll delete it soon enough as it feels (as it is) like gambling.
