The Iran War (was Nuclear Program) thread
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oil creeping up again...
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im telling you, the news cycle is measured in minutes
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I'm watching various KC-135 stratotankers flying from Tel Aviv over to the gulf and back, I see at least 5 in the air right now. It's interesting to see how their routes just barely stays south of the Iraqi border (aka stays in saudi arabian airspace until it gets to the gulf).
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What's really sad is how predictable this is. Making huge amounts of money from the on-again, off-again tariffs was bad enough. This is grotesque.
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Back to the point from the Economist piece about both sides having maximalist demands.
WSJ: Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, responding to mediation efforts, is demanding firm guarantees the war will not restart, a halt to Israeli strikes on Hezbollah, the shutdown of U.S. bases in the Gulf, and compensation for its losses.
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Administration is talking to the Iranian Parliament speaker. Unclear what his relationship is with the IRGC.
About as distant as from the Iranian state decision making apparatus as was the President of the USSR in its day. In other words he would be little more than an errand boy for the IRGC and what's left of the Ayatollahs. Close to absolute zero authority next to the Iranian President.
The country is run by the Spiritual Council and its bodyguard, the IRGC.
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VDH is on board.
Victor Davis Hanson: THE SIGNALS ARE ALL POINTING THE SAME DIRECTIONNo U.S. analyst knows better how to cut through the fog of war than Stanford University Prof. @VDHanson.
In the clip below, Hanson, who’s studied how wars end for 50 years, says the tide has turned in America’s favor against Iran. Forget the rancid propaganda flowing from all quarters related to the Iran conflict and how it is going - Hanson says look at how everyone else is behaving.
Hanson’s Key Points:
• Europeans: They never touch a conflict until they smell victory. Early on? Crickets. Now they’re quietly moving assets and offering support. Pure calculation — they’ve read the battlefield and decided which side wins.
• Gulf petro-states: Saudis, Emiratis, Qataris survive by reading the room perfectly. They’re expelling Iranian attachés, silently intercepting Iranian missiles over their capitals, and the UAE just reaffirmed its $1.4 trillion investment commitment to the U.S. mid-war. These are not gestures — they’re bets. And they’re all-in on America.
• Al Jazeera: The Qatari state network that usually bashes U.S. actions (and hosts Hamas offices) is now calling America’s bombing campaign “brilliant” and “underestimated.” When the outlet that hosts both the biggest U.S. air base and Hamas praises U.S. effectiveness, the message is unmistakable: they think we’re winning.
• Military reality: A-10 Warthogs and Apache gunships are now flying strike missions inside Iranian airspace at will. These slow, low-flying platforms only appear when enemy air defenses are effectively gone. Confirms what’s really happening on the ground.
Iran’s only play left is rope-a-dope: drag it out, hope U.S. public opinion flips, pray midterms pressure Trump to quit.
VDH’s verdict: If Trump sees it through — and he will — the regime falls. Not in years. Pretty soon.
Bottom line: Watch what people do, not what they say. Every player with skin in the game is betting on America.
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“TAVAJOH! TAVAJOH! TAVAJOH!” a man’s voice announces, before going on to narrate a string of numbers in no apparent order, slowly and rhythmically. After nearly two hours, the calls of “Attention!” in Persian stop, only to resume again hours later.
The broadcast has been playing twice a day on a shortwave frequency since the start of the US-Israel attack on Iran on February 28.
According to Priyom, an organization which tracks and analyses global military and intelligence use of shortwave radio, using established radio-location techniques, the broadcast was first heard as the US bombing of Iran began. It has since played on the 7910 kHz shortwave frequency like clockwork—at 02.00 UTC and again at 18.00 UTC.
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Number stations are shortwave radio broadcasts that play strings of numbers or codes that sound random—like the one now heard in Iran. “It is an encrypted radio message used by foreign intelligence services, often as part of a complex operation by intelligence agencies and militaries,” says Maris Goldmanis, a Latvian historian and avid numbers stations researcher.
Number stations are most commonly associated with espionage. “For intelligence agencies, it is important to communicate with their spies to gather intelligence,” says John Sipher, a former US intelligence officer who served 28 years in the CIA’s National Clandestine Service. “This is not always possible in person due to political constraints or conflict. This is where number stations come in.”
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Because the broadcasts are encrypted and designed to be covert, those details may remain unclear for years, Goldmanis says. The structured nature of the transmission—its fixed schedule and consistent use of frequencies—further suggests it is part of a planned operation.
One theory is that the broadcasts originate from Iran itself, as part of its wartime intelligence efforts—particularly if traditional covert communication channels have been disrupted. “Such a station would have appeared if the Iranian intelligence service had lost its usual way of covert communication with the Iranian agents abroad because of the Israeli and US strikes and was now required to use a shortwave radio to send messages and instructions,” he says.
However, another more widely backed theory is that perhaps the US, Israel, or an Iranian opposition group in exile that is based in Europe is using shortwave transmitters to reach allies inside. “There is also a suggestion that these broadcasts are used to confuse and distract the Iranian security,” Goldmanis adds.
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General Mattis:
“Iran right now, if we declared victory, they would now say they own the strait,” Mattis said during the CERAweek by S&P Global conference. “You’d see a tax for every ship that goes through.”
“We’re in a tough spot, ladies and gentlemen,” Mattis said. “I can’t identify a lot of options.”https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/23/mattis-ending-iran-war-now-cede-hormuz-00841109
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