The Iran War (was Nuclear Program) thread
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Real time ship traffic in Strait of Hormuz. Not too much movement.
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:56.4/centery:25.8/zoom:8
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The money quote:
“One of the limits of madman theory is that you always have to be the craziest man,” Miller told Stein. “And right now, he's in a game of chicken with ... the craziest sons of b—— in the world. And so it's like, 'okay. So now... now what?' And you can see what happens, which is he says, ‘Oh, I'm gonna end their civilization,’ or, ‘Oh, I'm not gonna extend the ceasefire,’ or, ‘We're gonna go back at their power plants.’ And then when push comes to shove, it's like he doesn't want to do it.”
While the “madman theory” was popularized by another controversial Republican president, Richard Nixon, Trump’s predecessor used this approach only sporadically, only after deliberately plotting his implementation — and could point to achievements like ending the Vietnam War, preventing nuclear war in the Middle East and opening up relations with China. By contrast, as Stein and Miller noted, Trump seems to act impulsively.
The difference being that Nixon understood foreign policy, diplomacy and with whom he was dealing. Trump has no clue of any of any of the three.
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So Donald Trump is threatening NATO allies for not helping enough in a war they weren’t even consulted on, while Russia helps Iran target U.S. forces and gets waivers on oil sanctions.
Make that make sense
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/22/trump-nato-allies-consequences-list-00883619
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Iran refuses to come to more talks in Pakistan. President Trump cancels US personnel (Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner).
Was a bit surprised that VP Vance was not scheduled to go this time. Should I read more into that than I should?
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Vance wasnt on the agenda because Ghalibaf wasnt going. Steve and Jared are at the Aragchi level.
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Vance wasnt on the agenda because Ghalibaf wasnt going. Steve and Jared are at the Aragchi level.
@bachophile Ah okay. Thanks!!!
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Vance wasnt on the agenda because Ghalibaf wasnt going. Steve and Jared are at the Aragchi level.
Steve and Jared are at the Aragchi level.
More like Rubio is on the Aragchi level. Putin has demonstrated that at most, Witkoff is on the Dmitriev level- that of a favoured nobody. Witkoff has yet to meet Lavrov outside of being seated at the table during the fleeting Alaska Love-in.
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Interesting.
"A Chinese businessman puts Trump’s blunders in perspective. 'Trump’s attack on Iran is less consequential than his threat to attack Greenland. When he did that, to America’s oldest allies, I knew Europe would not follow America’s approach to China.'”
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Here's an interesting analysis by Ryan McBeth explaining why America may just be doing the right thing in taking out Iran's nuclear capability. The real reason is more religious than political.
Link to videoEgo similis habere bonum et non curat nunquam accipere malum.
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