The Iran War (was Nuclear Program) thread

[jon-nyc]

At some point even many of those against the war will see the need to carry on.

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink: "If the war stops but Iran remains a threat… we could face oil above $100, even near $150 for years."

[jon-nyc]

Nate is tracking support for the war. He says that by and large Americans don't support the war unless they're MAGA voters (notwithstanding the loss of some of the influencer population per @horace). So that 39% is probably maga+neocons for the most part.

[jon-nyc]

I see this breaking news and my first thought is, how does it still exist one month in?

Not that I don’t trust the two militaries to prioritize targets, but still I’m surprised it didn’t rank high enough to be destroyed yet.

IRGC Joint Staff HQ under U.S. Israel Attack

[Renauda]

Interesting, I would have thought it a target on day one of this.

[jon-nyc]

It could also be that they thought the Iranian Delcy Rodriguez would come from there so they spared it for some time.

[Renauda]

lol

[jon-nyc]

Someone on Twitter pointed out Trump started out the year talking about affordability, then with the Iraq war, made one of the few policy decisions Trump could that would simultaneously raise gas prices and mortgage rates.

[jon-nyc]

[jon-nyc]

I wonder what price of oil is required at equilibrium to destroy 10% of global demand. And 20%, etc.

[Mik]

Well, here's the gift. We still don't know who is giving it.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/trump-ends-worldwide-guessing-game-about-what-iran-actually-gifted-to-the-us/ar-AA1ZtAkO

[Renauda]

@jon-nyc said:

I wonder what price of oil is required at equilibrium to destroy 10% of global demand. And 20%, etc.

Good question. Not sure if anyone knows at this point.

[AndyD]

All news TV is about an 80 year old stuck in a quagmire.
Or rather, quicksand.

Can his redoubtable team come up trumps?

[jon-nyc]

Matters less than it might seem but interesting all the same.

[AndyD]

Interesting graphic

[Mik]

It is. Interesting way to show it. I'd imagine Iran is getting some pretty serious pressure to open it up. But I hate to see other countries struggle with energy for this war.

[jon-nyc]

[Andrea B]

Jeezel, Pete.

[jon-nyc]

#3 is debatable, but no doubt this is yet another example that shows why mid-tier powers will want nukes.

The question is will it have been worth it when it’s over.

[jon-nyc]

Us giving up with the strait still closed seems like among the worst outcomes we might have realistically imagined.

Trump thinks he can will the W into reality by repeating it and hearing from his yes-men but the whole world will know it’s a massive L.

(Tweet author is WSJ reporter on national security beat.)

[jon-nyc]