The Iran Nuclear Program thread
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wrote on 16 Jun 2025, 22:24 last edited by jon-nyc
Polymarket stats:
US Military Action on Iran before July? 31%
Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz in 2025? 27%
Khamenei out in 2025? 51%
... by June 30? 21%
Ceasefire before July? 25% -
wrote on 16 Jun 2025, 22:40 last edited by
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wrote on 16 Jun 2025, 22:41 last edited by jon-nyc
Polymarket on US attack went from 31 to 38% in 15 minutes.
Last night at 8pm it was 25%
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wrote on 16 Jun 2025, 22:50 last edited by
Actually never mind. I thought it was a piece by Ferguson. It's not.
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wrote on 16 Jun 2025, 23:06 last edited by
@jon-nyc said in The Iran Nuclear Program thread:
All sorts of retweets of this by administration officials. Including Rubio. Maybe something is happening soon.
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wrote on 16 Jun 2025, 23:06 last edited by
@jon-nyc said in The Iran Nuclear Program thread:
Polymarket on US attack went from 31 to 38% in 15 minutes.
Last night at 8pm it was 25%
Now it’s 53%. But volatile.
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wrote on 16 Jun 2025, 23:26 last edited by
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wrote on 16 Jun 2025, 23:30 last edited by
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wrote on 16 Jun 2025, 23:36 last edited by
It just hit 61%. From 31% about an hour ago.
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wrote on 16 Jun 2025, 23:38 last edited by
White House confirms Trump will return to Washington a day early after dinner tonight to "attend to matters in the middle east".
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wrote on 16 Jun 2025, 23:39 last edited by
US military involvement is maybe the worst idea ever.
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wrote on 16 Jun 2025, 23:40 last edited by
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wrote on 16 Jun 2025, 23:44 last edited by
@Mik said in The Iran Nuclear Program thread:
US military involvement is maybe the worst idea ever.
I would have agreed with that for the vast majority of our history here. I often said that Israel should take it as an existential threat and not let it happen but it was only a peripheral interest of ours.
But I've since come to believe that the model they have in the Middle East - funding and developing proxy armies inside all the other countries - was something they were going to export to Europe, certainly, and in the US if they could pull it off.
I want us to crush their program completely. Knowing that the regime will likely fall.
There are things the US military is bad at and things they're good at. They're bad at bringing democracy to countries without a history of it, but they're damn good at blowing up nuclear sties in mountains. I want them to do this.
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wrote on 16 Jun 2025, 23:46 last edited by
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wrote on 16 Jun 2025, 23:46 last edited by
That account just posted 'damn, I really wanted to sleep tonight'. lol
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wrote on 16 Jun 2025, 23:47 last edited by
Polymarket at 67.5%
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wrote on 16 Jun 2025, 23:48 last edited by
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wrote on 16 Jun 2025, 23:52 last edited by
Nice visual of poymarket odds.
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wrote on 16 Jun 2025, 23:53 last edited by jon-nyc
