John Bolton on Trump and Putin

[Renauda]

@xenon

Then Ukraine would become the USA’s and NATO’s new West Germany.

While it will be quite unacceptable to Putin, there will be nothing he can do about it. No war of attrition but a very long Cold War.

[Mik]

Not necessarily. An American capital investment and personnel stationed in Ukraine makes it much more of a concrete American interest which could discourage further Russian aggression. I admittedly do not know if that's what Trump has in mind, but it's possible.

[Horace]

In a rare fit of transparency for the Biden admin, his National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan appeared on Yascha Mounk's podcast called The Good Fight, and talked about some of the prior administration's thinking about Ukraine.

• he considers the current level of support for Ukraine sustainable indefinitely
• He does not feel that America should be playing any role in negotiations, that any negotiations should be initiated by and between Ukraine and Russia only.
• He rejects the notion that different allocations of American military equipment would have changed the outcome (F16s earlier, different tanks, etc)
• He thinks the ongoing war is a huge success, compared to the predictions at the outset of a Russian steamroll into Kiev.

So, his plan was to support the war indefinitely, until Ukraine negotiated a deal on its own terms.

[Horace]

I have difficulty with the notion that America purchases no agency in the proceedings with its support. That America's support is just table stakes for its place as the world's defender of freedom.

[xenon]

Maybe I’m being dense and over-simplifying, but I would have thought that Ukraine would only give mineral rights if they’re going to get tangible military aid (that they intend to use) in return.

I guess what I’m hearing is that the mineral rights make it defacto US territory, and Russia won’t attack the US. I don’t know enough about the situation to comment on that.