Trumpenomics
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The world trade war has yet to make its effects felt, beyond a dip in the stock market which is still pricing in some optimism that sanity will prevail.
@Horace said in Trumpenomics:
The world trade war has yet to make its effects felt, beyond a dip in the stock market which is still pricing in some optimism that sanity will prevail.
Okay. But, let’s lean into that optimism for a minute… What happens if over the next 60-80 days DJT does come to some new and more favorable trade deals? What happens if you see say another $1T in commitments to build new US factories? What happens to the market at that point? Especially if the tax cuts gets extended and the deregulation efforts take hold? What do you think the market looks like in September if we see these results?
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@Horace said in Trumpenomics:
The world trade war has yet to make its effects felt, beyond a dip in the stock market which is still pricing in some optimism that sanity will prevail.
Okay. But, let’s lean into that optimism for a minute… What happens if over the next 60-80 days DJT does come to some new and more favorable trade deals? What happens if you see say another $1T in commitments to build new US factories? What happens to the market at that point? Especially if the tax cuts gets extended and the deregulation efforts take hold? What do you think the market looks like in September if we see these results?
I
@LuFins-Dad said in Trumpenomics:
@Horace said in Trumpenomics:
The world trade war has yet to make its effects felt, beyond a dip in the stock market which is still pricing in some optimism that sanity will prevail.
Okay. But, let’s lean into that optimism for a minute… What happens if over the next 60-80 days DJT does come to some new and more favorable trade deals? What happens if you see say another $1T in commitments to build new US factories? What happens to the market at that point? Especially if the tax cuts gets extended and the deregulation efforts take hold? What do you think the market looks like in September if we see these results?
It's not clear to me how much actual room for improvement America had in these trade deals. The tariffs against us prior to Liberation Day do not seem to have amounted to much of importance. The hand waved non-tariff trade barriers are difficult to discuss, as they are not well defined, but they do not seem very important either.
As for factories, I think you have noted that they are a pipe dream.
Best case scenario where Trump rolls back all trade war stuff, an unlikely scenario, and China decides to forgive and forget? Sure, the market could regain its highs.
I expect a world trade war, if it's not called off by Trump, will affect a lot more than the stock market, though.
And I continue to believe that the reason for this trade war, is that Trump heard the word "deficit" in the phrase "trade deficit", some fateful day many decades ago, and got fixated on how bad that is. If only he'd been introduced to the concept with different words describing the same thing, a "capital surplus". History would have been different.
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@LuFins-Dad said in Trumpenomics:
@Horace said in Trumpenomics:
The world trade war has yet to make its effects felt, beyond a dip in the stock market which is still pricing in some optimism that sanity will prevail.
Okay. But, let’s lean into that optimism for a minute… What happens if over the next 60-80 days DJT does come to some new and more favorable trade deals? What happens if you see say another $1T in commitments to build new US factories? What happens to the market at that point? Especially if the tax cuts gets extended and the deregulation efforts take hold? What do you think the market looks like in September if we see these results?
It's not clear to me how much actual room for improvement America had in these trade deals. The tariffs against us prior to Liberation Day do not seem to have amounted to much of importance. The hand waved non-tariff trade barriers are difficult to discuss, as they are not well defined, but they do not seem very important either.
As for factories, I think you have noted that they are a pipe dream.
Best case scenario where Trump rolls back all trade war stuff, an unlikely scenario, and China decides to forgive and forget? Sure, the market could regain its highs.
I expect a world trade war, if it's not called off by Trump, will affect a lot more than the stock market, though.
And I continue to believe that the reason for this trade war, is that Trump heard the word "deficit" in the phrase "trade deficit", some fateful day many decades ago, and got fixated on how bad that is. If only he'd been introduced to the concept with different words describing the same thing, a "capital surplus". History would have been different.
And I continue to believe that the reason for this trade war, is that Trump heard the word "deficit" in the phrase "trade deficit", some fateful day many decades ago, and got fixated on how bad that is. If only he'd been introduced to the concept with different words describing the same thing, a "capital surplus". History would have been different.
Agreed. He also wrongly believes the importation of goods and services into the US equates as a subsidy to a foreign country. At the same time however he appears to think that the right of export of goods and services should be exclusive to the US alone and that the rest of the world should be restricted to hewing wood and drawing water for the sole benefit of the US.
A rather blockheaded understanding of international trade and investment.
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When the trade talks start to happen, I don't think tariffs will be the only thing discussed. I think trade barriers are also going to be thrown into the mix.
There's two countries I'm really interested in - China and Russia. I think Trump is going to try to corral trade with China. Not cut off, modify. And I think he's gong to try to drive the price of energy low enough that Russia will have trouble waging war at their current pace.
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I think trade barriers are also going to be thrown into the mix.
Like what? Name some.
You start…
Elbows up!
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I think trade barriers are also going to be thrown into the mix.
Like what? Name some.
You start…
@Renauda I think that tariffs would qualify as trade barriers.
I disagree with the way President Trump is handling the trade issue, but it would be worthwhile to have trade with China more fair. China uses things like requirement of X% of domestic ownership, import quotas, subsidies, etc. I think that they do this a lot more than other countries.
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Tariffs definitely but I gathered that the other poster was obliquely referring to non tariff barriers to trade such as those you listed.
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Just more evidence that there was so little to gain with these antics. If one wants to put a coherent frame on it, you'd just have to take seriously the notion of protectionism, higher prices, and more manufacturing jobs. Which is not a better America, but at least it's a comprehensible goal.
In practice, what will probably happen is that these shenanigans will show up in inflation and jobs numbers, Trump will declare victory over a bunch of nothing-burger concessions by countries that never treated America unfairly to begin with, and the fate of the whole exercise will be left up to China, who may or may not decide to rub America's nose in it, at significant cost to both countries in the short term, and maybe a benefit to China in the long term.
Education is extremely important.
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US trade delegation asks the Japanese delegation what they were ready to offer. Japanese delegation says ‘well what do you guys want?’ They couldn’t answer.
Well the US g’ovt could hardly demand that tightening the border to address illegal immigrants or fentanyl trafficking from Japan. They blew both those lame excuses with Canada.
Maybe Japan as the 52nd state or demand reparations for the war in the Pacific?
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I think trade barriers are also going to be thrown into the mix.
Like what? Name some.
You start…
@Renauda said in Trumpenomics:
I think trade barriers are also going to be thrown into the mix.
Like what? Name some.
You start…
I’m sure we can make up some of the same ones they will pretend are real. VATs, over production and subsidization of their domestic manufacturers that are competitive with primary American exports. Low wage standards. The one that keeps getting talked about by some of the more respectable officials that I honestly don’t know much about and would appreciate more insight on is currency manipulation. That is something I would be curious to hear about.
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@Renauda said in Trumpenomics:
I think trade barriers are also going to be thrown into the mix.
Like what? Name some.
You start…
I’m sure we can make up some of the same ones they will pretend are real. VATs, over production and subsidization of their domestic manufacturers that are competitive with primary American exports. Low wage standards. The one that keeps getting talked about by some of the more respectable officials that I honestly don’t know much about and would appreciate more insight on is currency manipulation. That is something I would be curious to hear about.
The one that keeps getting talked about by some of the more respectable officials that I honestly don’t know much about and would appreciate more insight on is currency manipulation. That is something I would be curious to hear about.
As would I. I think it only refers to countries like China, Russia, India and a few others that circulate what is essentially inconvertible currencies. Openly traded currencies like the dollar, Euro and British Pound are governed by their central banks and cannot be manipulated by their host states.
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Trump's non-tariff trade barriers, posted today:
NON-TARIFF CHEATING:
- Currency Manipulation
- VATs which act as tariffs and export subsidies
- Dumping Below Cost
- Export Subsidies and Other Govt. Subsidies
- Protective Agricultural Standards (e.g., no genetically engineered corn in EU)
- Protective Technical Standards (Japan’s bowling ball test)
- Counterfeiting, Piracy, and IP Theft (Over $1 trillion a year)
- Transshipping to EVADE Tariffs!!!
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#7 is the only legitimate one listed.
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Actually #3 is legit as well. No country finds dumping acceptable. But it can be dealt with easily through the WTO process.
At a glance the rest are nonsense. Especially subsidies to the agriculture sector. The US is one of the top subsidisers of agri products..
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Actually #3 is legit as well. No country finds dumping acceptable. But it can be dealt with easily through the WTO process.
At a glance the rest are nonsense. Especially subsidies to the agriculture sector. The US is one of the top subsidisers of agri products..
@Renauda said in Trumpenomics:
Actually #3 is legit as well. No country finds dumping acceptable. But it can be dealt with easily through the WTO process.
At a glance the rest are nonsense. Especially subsidies to the agriculture sector. The US is one of the top subsidisers of agri products..
Fair enough.
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A completed, air-worthy Boeing 737 MAX that was already in China got returned to the USA -- because Xiamen Airlines, the supposed recipient of that airplane, cannot afford the tariffs and thus cannot take delivery.
