Trumpenomics

[Doctor Phibes]

And of course, this could work out OK. I can't really see how unless Trump changes course, but I'm sure as hell no expert.

The real point is that Trump has no freaking idea what's going to happen. Anybody who thinks the government is safely in control of things is delusional. I said the same about Brexit - I'd rather have the current less-than-ideal situation than something completely unpredictable.

And sure, Trump's a risk-taker. But he's taking huge risks with our life savings, so fuck no.

[Horace]

Any story where permanent tariffs (until changed by a future administration) work out well, would be fanciful. But no such story is told. The best offerings are vague implications of Pleasantville, Middle America, with a beautiful new factory, and white picket fenced homes surrounding it, where the factory workers live with their 2.5 kids. But there's no serious story about how to get there. "Because tariffs" is not a serious story.

[Doctor Phibes]

@Horace said in Trumpenomics:

Any story where permanent tariffs (until changed by a future administration) work out well, would be fanciful. But no such story is told. The best offerings are vague implications of Pleasantville, Middle America, with a beautiful new factory, and white picket fenced homes surrounding it, where the factory workers live with their 2.5 kids. But there's no serious story about how to get there. "Because tariffs" is not a serious story.

All you have to do is replace the word 'tariff' with the word 'tax', and suddenly the entire policy looks quite ugly and ridiculous.

And the idea that other countries shouldn't or won't reciprocate 'if they know what's good for them' is ridiculous. He might have got away with bullying and ripping off his suppliers when he was in charge of his own business, but it's clearly not going to work here.

[Renauda]

@Jolly

I'll give you some advice...

Yes and it’s called Beauregard’s Barnyard Gospel of Platitudes to Himself Alone.

[jon-nyc]

This is now the worst three-day performance for the S&P 500 since October 1987.

[jon-nyc]

But….

[Horace]

Yeah the markets went up just now.

[xenon]

@LuFins-Dad said in Trumpenomics:

So here’s the question you have to ask. Is Bessent (a Yale grad that went on to run Soros’ London office and ultimately became a partner before starting his own highly successful firm focused on global trading and macroeconomics) an absolute idiot and lucked his way into the wealth and positions he was in? Or is there something more at play?

I thought those guys were the guys we were specifically not listening to with this policy.

I don't know if Bessent is true believer, but you don't get a job in this admin without being a lickspittle. And there's a lot of spittle to lick here.

Conspicuously missing here is any leadership by the President, aside from a tweet or two.

[kluurs]

Nearly every hour I think of something where prices are going to increase – a lot – tulip bulbs, cut flowers, etc.
America doesn’t run a trade deficit because other countries “exploit us’, but because we exploit them, using the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. Corporate debt, oil transactions, and so much else is done in dollars for the most part. Countries have a strong incentive to keep the value of the dollar stable. Tariffs disrupt the incentives and create new ones. Without a coherent state led plan for industrialization and import substitution, the result of tariffs is a sharp rise in price, a fall in the buying power of American wages, the destabilization of the American economy and the dollar which will result in a recession as American assets and wages fall in real value. The wealthiest will have even more control of the economy than at present – ala Russia.

[kluurs]

[Horace]

Hassett was on the interview circuit yesterday doubling down on how awesome and permanent the tariffs were going to be.

Anyway, the markets gave up the flash gains now. Not sure why.

[Horace]

Reading some stock forums over the weekend, a lot of people saying how they're moving their investments to cash. When someone does so in a 401k, they typically have to wait 30 days to move the money back into the market. I hope they don't get burned by this insanity. Even if the indices recover, people will lose money if they reacted disadvantageously to the panic. But it's difficult to call anybody stupid for reacting to this, and trying to keep their money safe. That's what Trump has wrought.

[jon-nyc]

[Horace]

Wow, whoever faked that just made a lot of money. I wonder if that's illegal.

[jon-nyc]

@Horace Typically it’s a time period before you can buy the same fund once you sell it. Maybe there’s a workaround for many by buying the Russell 1k rather than the S&P, or a managed stock fund.

[jon-nyc]

@Horace said in Trumpenomics:

Wow, whoever faked that just made a lot of money. I wonder if that's illegal.

[Doctor Phibes]

I think I've lost about as much money in the last week as my previous house cost.

Not to worry, though, because some guy who's worth 500 million and went to Yale says everything's going to be OK.

Of course, he can lose half his wealth and still afford to retire whenever the fuck he likes.

[Horace]

@jon-nyc said in Trumpenomics:

@Horace said in Trumpenomics:

Wow, whoever faked that just made a lot of money. I wonder if that's illegal.

I know the indices gave it back up, I just figure they were in a position to profit off a temporary move. Unless it was just a pure prank that went way more viral than anybody thought it would.

Anyway, that price action tells the tale of a bunch of "active traders" being very happy or very angry, all at the same time.

[kluurs]

Word is Trump is threatening to increase tariffs to China if they don't back down from their retaliatory tariffs. If I were China, I might say, "bring it on , fat boy."

[kluurs]

Skip to 1:13 in for the "good stuff"

Link to video