Trumpenomics
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The economy is complicated and we might be on the cusp of learning something we did not know before. That's all to say - nothing is certain.
But what we do know is there is no way for many businesses to sell what they're selling today without a massive price increase. A price increase which may kill their demand.
I also can't imagine any business leader wanting to seriously invest against an executive order. I also think no large company wants to be the first to complain - so these things may hang around until the pain is quite severe.
I guess - I'm responding to @LuFins-Dad, I don't see how this is similar to the covid panic. We have a pretty clear line of sight to the first order effects. I also don't think the stock market aspect is the really important one - it's just where the impact shows up first.
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@Doctor-Phibes said in Trumpenomics:
@Horace said in Trumpenomics:
tariffs suck, and America needs to learn that
Government intervention in the name of protectionism is totally counter to traditional conservative values. I think large numbers of Republicans must still believe this. Maybe they're actually hoping that MAGA burns on the lighthouse rocks of mixed-metaphor, and think this might be the best way to get rid of the goblins who are in the process of taking over the castle.
I guess it's a good thing in the long term, if this lesson can be very well learned.
In fairness, it was already pretty well learned, and there is no way Trump would have won if people had believed he'd do these sorts of tariffs. He'd have still gotten plenty of votes, but this single issue would easily have swayed enough people to overcome his 1 or 2% victory margins in swing states. People care deeply about their money, that they've sacrificed through their lives to accumulate. Not to state the obvious.
I know he's talked about how much he loves tariffs his whole life, but Trump 1.0 still didn't attempt anything like this.
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@Horace said in Trumpenomics:
I know he's talked about how much he loves tariffs his whole life, but Trump 1.0 still didn't attempt anything like this.
I think it's becoming pretty clear that1.0 was heavily restrained.
@xenon said in Trumpenomics:
@Horace said in Trumpenomics:
I know he's talked about how much he loves tariffs his whole life, but Trump 1.0 still didn't attempt anything like this.
I think it's becoming pretty clear that1.0 was heavily restrained.
Yeah, but nobody could have stopped him from doing this last time. He was self-restrained. Unless anybody thinks he was talked out of anything last time.
Or maybe it took him time to formulate this tariff plan. Maybe it hadn't occurred to him yet by 2020.
Or the most sinister version, he knew he'd be unelectable after doing it, so he had to wait for term 2. I doubt that one. I guess he thinks this'll work, and make him popular. So far, it seems the economic destruction is being enjoyed as spectator sport. So, it's working in that regard.
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Futures tomorrow look grim. Has anyone given thought to the real reason he’s doing this? He simply needs to be the center of attention to feed the narcissim. And the whole purpose of the tarriffs are to get nations to come entreat witu the Donald and bend the knee and do it all in front of cameras so the world can see how important the king of America is. And he will most certainly deal. That’s what he does. He is not so dense that he is not bombarded with econmic 101 lessons by his people. He has to understand the trade imbalances that exist are just like what was mentioned earlier here. No country’s gouging the USA.. But i wouldnt blame them if they tried as we are sitting on the biggest pot of money and global power the world has ever known. We are the bull
n the China shop and Trump wants to hop on and ride it for 8 seconds if he can. Look 
at me, i’m Sandra Dee is what this all is.
I have never personally met Someone whose personality is so overtly poisoned. -
I wonder how folk here will cope with the forthcoming price increases, from coffee to pensions, with increasing unemployment and market uncertainty?
We're hardly wealthy baby boomers, owning for example two 10 year old cars; however we can absorb price inceases having annuities guaranteed for life, and full state pensions in a few years.
But what of our children who are relatively new to the job & housing markets, of our friends who are coming up to retirement, and people worldwide in places like Vietnam, Cambodia with manufactufing jobs etc.?
Promised US domestic manufacturing jobs will take years to create if they ever materialise. I reckon there must be significant buyer regret among Trump(CF) voters, who didn't realise the difference between his promises and reality.
What about the international rule of law built up after the chaos of WW2, now reduced to Might makes right.
America appears little better than Russia. Veto the UN, disregard ICC, threaten weaker countries. No consequences. Two totalitarian states facing off?@Jolly "I'm just sitting back, enjoying the show"
World ends Monday.
Women and children to suffer most.
I still like ol' Larry. And I still think you're an opportunistic pissant.The world is a far worse place because of Trump(CF), and yes, women and children will suffer more.
It's a shitshow, so just what the hell are you enjoying about it?
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What happens to long-term supply contracts of imported goods with pre-negotiated prices?
The buyer points at the contract and says "I am not paying a penny more than what's written in the contract." The seller still has to pay 10%~99% more for tariffs as a matter of cost. What's the usual mechanisms to deal with something like this? Is there insurance that hedge for "sudden cost increases caused by government policies"?
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So here’s the question you have to ask. Is Bessent (a Yale grad that went on to run Soros’ London office and ultimately became a partner before starting his own highly successful firm focused on global trading and macroeconomics) an absolute idiot and lucked his way into the wealth and positions he was in? Or is there something more at play?
The Brad
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So here’s the question you have to ask. Is Bessent (a Yale grad that went on to run Soros’ London office and ultimately became a partner before starting his own highly successful firm focused on global trading and macroeconomics) an absolute idiot and lucked his way into the wealth and positions he was in? Or is there something more at play?
@LuFins-Dad said in Trumpenomics:
So here’s the question you have to ask. Is Bessent (a Yale grad that went on to run Soros’ London office and ultimately became a partner before starting his own highly successful firm focused on global trading and macroeconomics) an absolute idiot and lucked his way into the wealth and positions he was in? Or is there something more at play?
Well, if he disagrees with Trump he loses his job, so there's that.
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@LuFins-Dad said in Trumpenomics:
So here’s the question you have to ask. Is Bessent (a Yale grad that went on to run Soros’ London office and ultimately became a partner before starting his own highly successful firm focused on global trading and macroeconomics) an absolute idiot and lucked his way into the wealth and positions he was in? Or is there something more at play?
Well, if he disagrees with Trump he loses his job, so there's that.
@Doctor-Phibes said in Trumpenomics:
@LuFins-Dad said in Trumpenomics:
So here’s the question you have to ask. Is Bessent (a Yale grad that went on to run Soros’ London office and ultimately became a partner before starting his own highly successful firm focused on global trading and macroeconomics) an absolute idiot and lucked his way into the wealth and positions he was in? Or is there something more at play?
Well, if he disagrees with Trump he loses his job, so there's that.
The guy worth $500M is willing to risk losing all or most of that for the sake of a job that pays $250K per year? Is that seriously your argument?
The Brad
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@Doctor-Phibes said in Trumpenomics:
@LuFins-Dad said in Trumpenomics:
So here’s the question you have to ask. Is Bessent (a Yale grad that went on to run Soros’ London office and ultimately became a partner before starting his own highly successful firm focused on global trading and macroeconomics) an absolute idiot and lucked his way into the wealth and positions he was in? Or is there something more at play?
Well, if he disagrees with Trump he loses his job, so there's that.
The guy worth $500M is willing to risk losing all or most of that for the sake of a job that pays $250K per year? Is that seriously your argument?
@LuFins-Dad said in Trumpenomics:
@Doctor-Phibes said in Trumpenomics:
@LuFins-Dad said in Trumpenomics:
The guy worth $500M is willing to risk losing all or most of that for the sake of a job that pays $250K per year? Is that seriously your argument?
Well, another guy was willing to lose 100 Billion to work for free.
Though Musk seems to be firing people who might interfere with his James Bond villain plans for world and space domination. So there’s that…
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I wonder how folk here will cope with the forthcoming price increases, from coffee to pensions, with increasing unemployment and market uncertainty?
We're hardly wealthy baby boomers, owning for example two 10 year old cars; however we can absorb price inceases having annuities guaranteed for life, and full state pensions in a few years.
But what of our children who are relatively new to the job & housing markets, of our friends who are coming up to retirement, and people worldwide in places like Vietnam, Cambodia with manufactufing jobs etc.?
Promised US domestic manufacturing jobs will take years to create if they ever materialise. I reckon there must be significant buyer regret among Trump(CF) voters, who didn't realise the difference between his promises and reality.
What about the international rule of law built up after the chaos of WW2, now reduced to Might makes right.
America appears little better than Russia. Veto the UN, disregard ICC, threaten weaker countries. No consequences. Two totalitarian states facing off?@Jolly "I'm just sitting back, enjoying the show"
World ends Monday.
Women and children to suffer most.
I still like ol' Larry. And I still think you're an opportunistic pissant.The world is a far worse place because of Trump(CF), and yes, women and children will suffer more.
It's a shitshow, so just what the hell are you enjoying about it?
@AndyD said in Trumpenomics:
I wonder how folk here will cope with the forthcoming price increases, from coffee to pensions, with increasing unemployment and market uncertainty?
We're hardly wealthy baby boomers, owning for example two 10 year old cars; however we can absorb price inceases having annuities guaranteed for life, and full state pensions in a few years.
But what of our children who are relatively new to the job & housing markets, of our friends who are coming up to retirement, and people worldwide in places like Vietnam, Cambodia with manufactufing jobs etc.?
Promised US domestic manufacturing jobs will take years to create if they ever materialise. I reckon there must be significant buyer regret among Trump(CF) voters, who didn't realise the difference between his promises and reality.
What about the international rule of law built up after the chaos of WW2, now reduced to Might makes right.
America appears little better than Russia. Veto the UN, disregard ICC, threaten weaker countries. No consequences. Two totalitarian states facing off?@Jolly "I'm just sitting back, enjoying the show"
World ends Monday.
Women and children to suffer most.
I still like ol' Larry. And I still think you're an opportunistic pissant.The world is a far worse place because of Trump(CF), and yes, women and children will suffer more.
It's a shitshow, so just what the hell are you enjoying about it?
No, the world is not worse because of Trump. The women and children quote is from a NYT gag, but you're probably not smart enough to know that.
And you don't have to enjoy the show, you can lay back and think of England, if you wish.
I'll give you some advice... Put not your faith in princes or principalities. Owe no man money. Never put all your financial eggs in one basket. Live on 75% of your take-home income. Try to create more than one revenue stream. Learn poor boy skills...how to cut a 5/12 rafter, how to patch a roof, wire an electrical outlet, change a set of disc brakes, grow a vegetable garden, how to lay a floor (wood, tile or other) and how to cook well on a limited budget. Treat relationships as relationships, and business as business.
Know that God laughs at men's plans and your control over your life is illusion.
Cinch up, take a dally and enjoy Life's ride...
“Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”
Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton
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So here’s the question you have to ask. Is Bessent (a Yale grad that went on to run Soros’ London office and ultimately became a partner before starting his own highly successful firm focused on global trading and macroeconomics) an absolute idiot and lucked his way into the wealth and positions he was in? Or is there something more at play?
@LuFins-Dad said in Trumpenomics:
So here’s the question you have to ask. Is Bessent (a Yale grad that went on to run Soros’ London office and ultimately became a partner before starting his own highly successful firm focused on global trading and macroeconomics) an absolute idiot and lucked his way into the wealth and positions he was in? Or is there something more at play?
It’s quite possible that one can apply Larry’s statement “educated beyond his intelligence” to the man.
That, and Copperhead’s oft stated platitude, “money makes you stupid”.
