Trumpenomics
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I'm actually finding this quite surprising. I never thought Trump would actually follow through with all of his bullshit.
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The fact that the market plunged after he announced the tariffs, is proof that very few people thought he'd do this. If they thought he'd do this, it would have been priced in after he was elected. The idea that Trump cared about the stock market, was generally agreed upon.
If you start counting the market drop from the time it started becoming clear he was serious, after he took office, we're at a 20% drawdown on America's piggy bank. The 12% over the past two days has been a continuation of the slow realization of how serious he is about the tariffs. No telling where it stops, but permanent tariffs, at least until 2028, would surely cause more beatings, at least until morale improved. I'm worried about companies going out of business, and the job losses from that. You can't suffocate efficiency in highly tuned economic systems without suffocating a bunch of jobs out of existence. And the lead time to create new jobs will be significant, in that best case scenario where there's a point to this all.
Education is extremely important.
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Jolly said in Trumpenomics:
I'm just sitting back, enjoying the show....I guess you have that in common with a good chunk of the left...
And other wealthy folk who won't be affected financially by these taxes. Including your bumchum Trump (CF)
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Jolly said in Trumpenomics:
I'm just sitting back, enjoying the show....I guess you have that in common with a good chunk of the left...
And other wealthy folk who won't be affected financially by these taxes. Including your bumchum Trump (CF)
@AndyD said in Trumpenomics:
Jolly said in Trumpenomics:
I'm just sitting back, enjoying the show....I guess you have that in common with a good chunk of the left...
And other wealthy folk who won't be affected financially by these taxes. Including your bumchum Trump (CF)
You've always been a pissant, haven't you, dating back to the days when you'd drop by long enough to let Larry whup up on you. Nice to know there are constants in the world.
This may come as a shock to you, but I'm not wealthy. Don't even come close to a lot of the folks here. And I'm getting older, so it's harder to apply my possum living skills, should I need them.
No, I just think I understand what's happening and how Trump is rolling the economic dice. His vision is to create better paying middle-class jobs through tariffs and corporate taxes, to keep individual taxes as low as he can and to combat inflation with low energy prices. Biden focused on government job creation, Trump is trying to grow private job numbers..
Will it work? Again, I dunno.
Right now, I figure the market goes up and the market goes down. I don't plan on touching any of my investments for another seven years, so right now, it's all imaginary money. Plus, I've had the view the market is horrendously overpriced with abysmal P/E ratios, so corrections are inevitable.
I pulled carrots and we canned them yesterday. My corn is looking ok, but the grass is going to be a problem. I transplanted cucumbers yesterday, need to transplant tomatoes and the beans and squash are up. Still need to plant peas and okra.
One of the nice things about living on the rural route, gardening and puttering around the house, trying to stay connected with God and people through a local church, is that it lowers the stress levels of everyday life to manageable parameters. And grandkids...Those help with everyday life, too.
Anyway, it works for me. Try it, if you're a mind to and maybe you'll be happier.
“Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”
Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton
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@jon-nyc said in Trumpenomics:
Good to see that you, Adam, and whoever made the meme still don’t get it.
As I mentioned several times already, still better than the alternative…
The Brad
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The fact that the market plunged after he announced the tariffs, is proof that very few people thought he'd do this. If they thought he'd do this, it would have been priced in after he was elected. The idea that Trump cared about the stock market, was generally agreed upon.
If you start counting the market drop from the time it started becoming clear he was serious, after he took office, we're at a 20% drawdown on America's piggy bank. The 12% over the past two days has been a continuation of the slow realization of how serious he is about the tariffs. No telling where it stops, but permanent tariffs, at least until 2028, would surely cause more beatings, at least until morale improved. I'm worried about companies going out of business, and the job losses from that. You can't suffocate efficiency in highly tuned economic systems without suffocating a bunch of jobs out of existence. And the lead time to create new jobs will be significant, in that best case scenario where there's a point to this all.
@Horace said in Trumpenomics:
The fact that the market plunged after he announced the tariffs, is proof that very few people thought he'd do this. If they thought he'd do this, it would have been priced in after he was elected. The idea that Trump cared about the stock market, was generally agreed upon.
In a way, I think that’s what made this necessary. IF this is about leverage, then it wouldn’t be a very good tool if nobody thought he would really go through with it. To his way of thinking he had no choice. I still think it’s entirely possible that within 2 weeks there are a number of reworked trade deals and things are looking far rosier. You’ll see a handful of promises to restore manufacturing and the markets will be euphoric for a few weeks.
The Brad
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@AndyD said in Trumpenomics:
Jolly said in Trumpenomics:
I'm just sitting back, enjoying the show....I guess you have that in common with a good chunk of the left...
And other wealthy folk who won't be affected financially by these taxes. Including your bumchum Trump (CF)
You've always been a pissant, haven't you, dating back to the days when you'd drop by long enough to let Larry whup up on you. Nice to know there are constants in the world.
This may come as a shock to you, but I'm not wealthy. Don't even come close to a lot of the folks here. And I'm getting older, so it's harder to apply my possum living skills, should I need them.
No, I just think I understand what's happening and how Trump is rolling the economic dice. His vision is to create better paying middle-class jobs through tariffs and corporate taxes, to keep individual taxes as low as he can and to combat inflation with low energy prices. Biden focused on government job creation, Trump is trying to grow private job numbers..
Will it work? Again, I dunno.
Right now, I figure the market goes up and the market goes down. I don't plan on touching any of my investments for another seven years, so right now, it's all imaginary money. Plus, I've had the view the market is horrendously overpriced with abysmal P/E ratios, so corrections are inevitable.
I pulled carrots and we canned them yesterday. My corn is looking ok, but the grass is going to be a problem. I transplanted cucumbers yesterday, need to transplant tomatoes and the beans and squash are up. Still need to plant peas and okra.
One of the nice things about living on the rural route, gardening and puttering around the house, trying to stay connected with God and people through a local church, is that it lowers the stress levels of everyday life to manageable parameters. And grandkids...Those help with everyday life, too.
Anyway, it works for me. Try it, if you're a mind to and maybe you'll be happier.
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@Horace said in Trumpenomics:
The fact that the market plunged after he announced the tariffs, is proof that very few people thought he'd do this. If they thought he'd do this, it would have been priced in after he was elected. The idea that Trump cared about the stock market, was generally agreed upon.
In a way, I think that’s what made this necessary. IF this is about leverage, then it wouldn’t be a very good tool if nobody thought he would really go through with it. To his way of thinking he had no choice. I still think it’s entirely possible that within 2 weeks there are a number of reworked trade deals and things are looking far rosier. You’ll see a handful of promises to restore manufacturing and the markets will be euphoric for a few weeks.
@LuFins-Dad said in Trumpenomics:
@Horace said in Trumpenomics:
The fact that the market plunged after he announced the tariffs, is proof that very few people thought he'd do this. If they thought he'd do this, it would have been priced in after he was elected. The idea that Trump cared about the stock market, was generally agreed upon.
In a way, I think that’s what made this necessary. IF this is about leverage, then it wouldn’t be a very good tool if nobody thought he would really go through with it. To his way of thinking he had no choice. I still think it’s entirely possible that within 2 weeks there are a number of reworked trade deals and things are looking far rosier. You’ll see a handful of promises to restore manufacturing and the markets will be euphoric for a few weeks.
That would be nice, but I am not optimistic. I do think some very high tariffs will be reduced through negotiations, but I don't know if the flat 10% across the board will be negotiable. I will watch the Vietnam thing, to get an indicator if Trump is willing to reduce tariffs below 10% on any country.
Since these are not real reciprocal tariffs, a country can't simply reduce tariffs on America to zero, and expect America to reciprocate that.
I think Trump is really excited about this revenue. It's like he's living out the fantasy of someone who bought a bridge, and will now charge the tolls.
Education is extremely important.
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@jon-nyc said in Trumpenomics:
Good to see that you, Adam, and whoever made the meme still don’t get it.
As I mentioned several times already, still better than the alternative…
@LuFins-Dad said in Trumpenomics:
@jon-nyc said in Trumpenomics:
Good to see that you, Adam, and whoever made the meme still don’t get it.
As I mentioned several times already, still better than the alternative…
Cold comfort for the Trump haters.
But I can't see a clip from that movie, and not mention that it is one of the greatest comedies of all time.
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Jolly said in Trumpenomics:
I'm just sitting back, enjoying the show....I guess you have that in common with a good chunk of the left...
And other wealthy folk who won't be affected financially by these taxes. Including your bumchum Trump (CF)
@AndyD said in Trumpenomics:
Jolly said in Trumpenomics:
I'm just sitting back, enjoying the show....I guess you have that in common with a good chunk of the left...
And other wealthy folk who won't be affected financially by these taxes. Including your bumchum Trump (CF)
I doubt wealthy people are enjoying this, either. Buffet maybe, who's got tons of cash on the sidelines, waiting for an opportunity like this.
Education is extremely important.
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For some people, their support for Trump is faith based.
They will not be confused by information.@Axtremus said in Trumpenomics:
For some people, their support for Trump is faith based.
They will not be confused by information.Most of the immediate information the average person gets is either biased, incomplete or erroneous. I didn't work for the Feds, but I have a pretty good idea that much of the data generated by them is no better than state government generated data (and a lot of that sucks).
I think we're probably better at trends, particularly in a historic context or perhaps crunching metadata.
As for faith in Trump? Only a fool has absolute faith in any politician.
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@AndyD said in Trumpenomics:
Jolly said in Trumpenomics:
I'm just sitting back, enjoying the show....I guess you have that in common with a good chunk of the left...
And other wealthy folk who won't be affected financially by these taxes. Including your bumchum Trump (CF)
I doubt wealthy people are enjoying this, either. Buffet maybe, who's got tons of cash on the sidelines, waiting for an opportunity like this.
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@Axtremus said in Trumpenomics:
#3 can happen after the Democrats win big in the mid-term.
Two years of this madness will be enough time for the Dems to gain credit for saving the economy, if they end the tariffs. If they do it now, with some GOP help, Trump takes only a small hit, and he'll be able to retail the idea that the tariffs would have worked if they'd been given a chance.
As Matt Yglesias opens today's email with:
Well, “Liberation Day” has arrived and it sucks, but Trump’s taste for terrible trade policy may be American democracy’s best hope, so I have mixed feelings about the whole thing.
I assume these sorts of mixed feelings are shared by lots of Democrats, and so I'm a little surprised they would try to end the tariffs right now. But once the legislation is on the floor, which I hope happens as soon as possible, I guess they'll have to vote to end them, or take responsibility for them.
@Horace said in Trumpenomics:
@Axtremus said in Trumpenomics:
#3 can happen after the Democrats win big in the mid-term.
Two years of this madness will be enough time for the Dems to gain credit for saving the economy, if they end the tariffs. If they do it now, with some GOP help, Trump takes only a small hit, and he'll be able to retail the idea that the tariffs would have worked if they'd been given a chance.
As Matt Yglesias opens today's email with:
Well, “Liberation Day” has arrived and it sucks, but Trump’s taste for terrible trade policy may be American democracy’s best hope, so I have mixed feelings about the whole thing.
I assume these sorts of mixed feelings are shared by lots of Democrats, and so I'm a little surprised they would try to end the tariffs right now. But once the legislation is on the floor, which I hope happens as soon as possible, I guess they'll have to vote to end them, or take responsibility for them.
And nowhere does Mr. Yglesias state what he would suggest doing about the problems Trump is trying, however well or badly, to address. he just snipes from the gallery. Pundits gotta pundit.
“I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill
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The fact that the market plunged after he announced the tariffs, is proof that very few people thought he'd do this. If they thought he'd do this, it would have been priced in after he was elected. The idea that Trump cared about the stock market, was generally agreed upon.
If you start counting the market drop from the time it started becoming clear he was serious, after he took office, we're at a 20% drawdown on America's piggy bank. The 12% over the past two days has been a continuation of the slow realization of how serious he is about the tariffs. No telling where it stops, but permanent tariffs, at least until 2028, would surely cause more beatings, at least until morale improved. I'm worried about companies going out of business, and the job losses from that. You can't suffocate efficiency in highly tuned economic systems without suffocating a bunch of jobs out of existence. And the lead time to create new jobs will be significant, in that best case scenario where there's a point to this all.
@Horace said in Trumpenomics:
No telling where it stops, but permanent tariffs, at least until 2028, would surely cause more beatings, at least until morale improved.
If he keeps this up, imagine the mid-terms. He will lose everything in 2026, and will be able to spend the remaining two years of his Presidency ranting about voter fraud, buoyed up by his fanbase.
I was only joking
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@Horace said in Trumpenomics:
@Axtremus said in Trumpenomics:
#3 can happen after the Democrats win big in the mid-term.
Two years of this madness will be enough time for the Dems to gain credit for saving the economy, if they end the tariffs. If they do it now, with some GOP help, Trump takes only a small hit, and he'll be able to retail the idea that the tariffs would have worked if they'd been given a chance.
As Matt Yglesias opens today's email with:
Well, “Liberation Day” has arrived and it sucks, but Trump’s taste for terrible trade policy may be American democracy’s best hope, so I have mixed feelings about the whole thing.
I assume these sorts of mixed feelings are shared by lots of Democrats, and so I'm a little surprised they would try to end the tariffs right now. But once the legislation is on the floor, which I hope happens as soon as possible, I guess they'll have to vote to end them, or take responsibility for them.
And nowhere does Mr. Yglesias state what he would suggest doing about the problems Trump is trying, however well or badly, to address. he just snipes from the gallery. Pundits gotta pundit.
@Mik said in Trumpenomics:
@Horace said in Trumpenomics:
@Axtremus said in Trumpenomics:
#3 can happen after the Democrats win big in the mid-term.
Two years of this madness will be enough time for the Dems to gain credit for saving the economy, if they end the tariffs. If they do it now, with some GOP help, Trump takes only a small hit, and he'll be able to retail the idea that the tariffs would have worked if they'd been given a chance.
As Matt Yglesias opens today's email with:
Well, “Liberation Day” has arrived and it sucks, but Trump’s taste for terrible trade policy may be American democracy’s best hope, so I have mixed feelings about the whole thing.
I assume these sorts of mixed feelings are shared by lots of Democrats, and so I'm a little surprised they would try to end the tariffs right now. But once the legislation is on the floor, which I hope happens as soon as possible, I guess they'll have to vote to end them, or take responsibility for them.
And nowhere does Mr. Yglesias state what he would suggest doing about the problems Trump is trying, however well or badly, to address. he just snipes from the gallery. Pundits gotta pundit.
It's not hard to meaningfully criticize, when doing nothing would have been much better than doing something. Your premise that Trump is addressing a problem, is flawed. Trade imbalances are not a problem. People in poorer countries doing America's dirty work making cheap products and selling them to us, is not a problem.
Education is extremely important.
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@Mik said in Trumpenomics:
@Horace said in Trumpenomics:
@Axtremus said in Trumpenomics:
#3 can happen after the Democrats win big in the mid-term.
Two years of this madness will be enough time for the Dems to gain credit for saving the economy, if they end the tariffs. If they do it now, with some GOP help, Trump takes only a small hit, and he'll be able to retail the idea that the tariffs would have worked if they'd been given a chance.
As Matt Yglesias opens today's email with:
Well, “Liberation Day” has arrived and it sucks, but Trump’s taste for terrible trade policy may be American democracy’s best hope, so I have mixed feelings about the whole thing.
I assume these sorts of mixed feelings are shared by lots of Democrats, and so I'm a little surprised they would try to end the tariffs right now. But once the legislation is on the floor, which I hope happens as soon as possible, I guess they'll have to vote to end them, or take responsibility for them.
And nowhere does Mr. Yglesias state what he would suggest doing about the problems Trump is trying, however well or badly, to address. he just snipes from the gallery. Pundits gotta pundit.
It's not hard to meaningfully criticize, when doing nothing would have been much better than doing something. Your premise that Trump is addressing a problem, is flawed. Trade imbalances are not a problem. People in poorer countries doing America's dirty work making cheap products and selling them to us, is not a problem.
