Trumpenomics
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wrote on 4 Apr 2025, 20:48 last edited by
Just looked at the major stock market indices. Yikes!
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wrote on 4 Apr 2025, 21:09 last edited by kluurs 4 Apr 2025, 21:10
A guy with a small business that ships in containers at a cost of $50K from China notes the increase in the cost of goods...from 36 cents in 2024 to $5.76 per unit now. He figures the business will fold in 2025.
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wrote on 4 Apr 2025, 21:12 last edited by
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/04/04/europe-china-trade-talks-trump-tariffs/
Spurned by Trump, Europe and China weigh closer economic ties
Jilted European allies are scrambling to hedge their bets in a world where economic and political alliances have been turned upside down by the United States.
Xi and Putin probably feel pretty good right now.
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Well, it just cost me money beyond my 401K… Customer cancelled an order specifically citing how much they lost in the stock market yesterday…
wrote on 4 Apr 2025, 21:23 last edited by@LuFins-Dad said in Trumpenomics:
Well, it just cost me money beyond my 401K… Customer cancelled an order specifically citing how much they lost in the stock market yesterday…
OTOH, if one is thinking of buying a foreign car, high end audio equipment or piano - I might want to buy today because by next month, it could cost 15-30% more. Today's prices are tomorrow's sales prices.
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A guy with a small business that ships in containers at a cost of $50K from China notes the increase in the cost of goods...from 36 cents in 2024 to $5.76 per unit now. He figures the business will fold in 2025.
wrote on 4 Apr 2025, 21:30 last edited by@kluurs said in Trumpenomics:
A guy with a small business that ships in containers at a cost of $50K from China notes the increase in the cost of goods...from 36 cents in 2024 to $5.76 per unit now. He figures the business will fold in 2025.
I think a lot of business will be going under, and a lot of jobs will be lost. So many businesses operate on low margins.
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wrote on 4 Apr 2025, 21:59 last edited by
What's almost unfathomable in all of this, is that a good part of the reason the election went the direction that it did - was that a sizeable portion of the country did not buy into the messaging that inflation was coming down. That is, people were impatient with the slowness of the recovery.
So...we're at the very beginnings of the impact of the recent tariff action. The seeds are in the ground - and there's a hint of germination, but nothing big has really come of it. One can still buy things at the grocery and on Amazon for many of the prices that were there a couple of weeks ago - but in most cases, we haven't seen the first fusillade of return fire from Europe and the far east, let alone the impact of the bullets we put in our own foot.
This is gonna be interesting. Is he the genius that MAGA purports, or the idiot/savant/conman who thrives on chaos and overwhelming the system with chicanery?
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What's almost unfathomable in all of this, is that a good part of the reason the election went the direction that it did - was that a sizeable portion of the country did not buy into the messaging that inflation was coming down. That is, people were impatient with the slowness of the recovery.
So...we're at the very beginnings of the impact of the recent tariff action. The seeds are in the ground - and there's a hint of germination, but nothing big has really come of it. One can still buy things at the grocery and on Amazon for many of the prices that were there a couple of weeks ago - but in most cases, we haven't seen the first fusillade of return fire from Europe and the far east, let alone the impact of the bullets we put in our own foot.
This is gonna be interesting. Is he the genius that MAGA purports, or the idiot/savant/conman who thrives on chaos and overwhelming the system with chicanery?
wrote on 4 Apr 2025, 22:07 last edited by@kluurs said in Trumpenomics:
What's almost unfathomable in all of this, is that a good part of the reason the election went the direction that it did - was that a sizeable portion of the country did not buy into the messaging that inflation was coming down. That is, people were impatient with the slowness of the recovery.
So...we're at the very beginnings of the impact of the recent tariff action. The seeds are in the ground - and there's a hint of germination, but nothing big has really come of it. One can still buy things at the grocery and on Amazon for many of the prices that were there a couple of weeks ago - but in most cases, we haven't seen the first fusillade of return fire from Europe and the far east, let alone the impact of the bullets we put in our own foot.
This is gonna be interesting. Is he the genius that MAGA purports, or the idiot/savant/conman who thrives on chaos and overwhelming the system with chicanery?
This ties into the latest 5D Chess theory al that I’ve heard. This is an effort to manipulate the bond market to lower rates, resulting in a 10 year savings on servicing the debt.
The argument against it is it would be inflationary, driving the FED to raise rates, driving the bond rates back up.
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wrote on 4 Apr 2025, 22:37 last edited by
Still, it has the feel of passing a truck in the opposite lane while staring at an 18 wheeler closing quickly. We're playing chicken with some interesting consequences. Bonds and borrowing - may not perform as predicted should the US become a Perahia in the world market. These tariffs aren't "reciprocal" inasmuch as some of them are against countries with little to no tariffs - and as much as Trump thinks everyone loves a bully, yeah - not so much. Liberation Day may turn out to be the day China's success became assured.
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wrote on 4 Apr 2025, 23:03 last edited by
Here we go...Vietnam wants a tariff of zero. Trump wants to deal...
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wrote on 4 Apr 2025, 23:07 last edited by
Yes, in the interest of fairness, it is worth noting that the EU and Japan have approached us since the announcement to discuss purchasing large amounts of LNG and a few other items.
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Still, it has the feel of passing a truck in the opposite lane while staring at an 18 wheeler closing quickly. We're playing chicken with some interesting consequences. Bonds and borrowing - may not perform as predicted should the US become a Perahia in the world market. These tariffs aren't "reciprocal" inasmuch as some of them are against countries with little to no tariffs - and as much as Trump thinks everyone loves a bully, yeah - not so much. Liberation Day may turn out to be the day China's success became assured.
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Here we go...Vietnam wants a tariff of zero. Trump wants to deal...
wrote on 4 Apr 2025, 23:13 last edited by@Jolly said in Trumpenomics:
Here we go...
VietnamNike wants a tariff of zero. Trump wants to deal...FIFY. Vietnam is the junior partner.
But you knew that already.
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Still, it has the feel of passing a truck in the opposite lane while staring at an 18 wheeler closing quickly. We're playing chicken with some interesting consequences. Bonds and borrowing - may not perform as predicted should the US become a Perahia in the world market. These tariffs aren't "reciprocal" inasmuch as some of them are against countries with little to no tariffs - and as much as Trump thinks everyone loves a bully, yeah - not so much. Liberation Day may turn out to be the day China's success became assured.
wrote on 4 Apr 2025, 23:14 last edited by@kluurs said in Trumpenomics:
Still, it has the feel of passing a truck in the opposite lane while staring at an 18 wheeler closing quickly. We're playing chicken with some interesting consequences. Bonds and borrowing - may not perform as predicted should the US become a Perahia in the world market. These tariffs aren't "reciprocal" inasmuch as some of them are against countries with little to no tariffs - and as much as Trump thinks everyone loves a bully, yeah - not so much. Liberation Day may turn out to be the day China's success became assured.
As Shapiro noted, most of these trade deficits are due to the nations A) being much smaller, there simply isn’t enough demand for US products in countries that size to match the US interest in their products and B) very poor. Vietnam has a GDP Per Capita of $4,289 with a median income of $7200 per year. How the hell do you expect them to make up a $125 Billion trade deficit? Ridiculous.
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wrote on 4 Apr 2025, 23:21 last edited by
I would expect a prosperous nation of consumers to have huge trade deficits with less prosperous nations.
I wish I knew how trade deficits got confused with tariff differences. But it's not confusion, it's just opportunistic false messaging.
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wrote on 4 Apr 2025, 23:23 last edited by
It’s not a trade deficit. They exchanged goods for dollars. It’s an equal and satisfactory exchange.
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I would expect a prosperous nation of consumers to have huge trade deficits with less prosperous nations.
I wish I knew how trade deficits got confused with tariff differences. But it's not confusion, it's just opportunistic false messaging.
wrote on 4 Apr 2025, 23:24 last edited by@Horace said in Trumpenomics:
I would expect a prosperous nation of consumers to have huge trade deficits with less prosperous nations.
I wish I knew how trade deficits got confused with tariff differences. But it's not confusion, it's just opportunistic false messaging.
“Trade Barriers” = lower wages is equivalent to a tariff.
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wrote on 4 Apr 2025, 23:24 last edited by
Y'all may not believe it, but Donald J. Trump is a master at holding a grudge.
Word is, his State Department (and Trump) were pissed during Trump's first term, because of China's reluctance to come anywhere near reciprocity on tariffs.
Maybe...There are countries we are willing to run trade deficits with. Countries we know are not going to buy much from us.
Maybe Trump is willing to let countries run a trade surplus against us, if we have low, reciprocal tariffs. Maybe we try to cut China out in favor of Vietnam or India.
I dunno.
But I think it's fixin' to get interesting...
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Y'all may not believe it, but Donald J. Trump is a master at holding a grudge.
Word is, his State Department (and Trump) were pissed during Trump's first term, because of China's reluctance to come anywhere near reciprocity on tariffs.
Maybe...There are countries we are willing to run trade deficits with. Countries we know are not going to buy much from us.
Maybe Trump is willing to let countries run a trade surplus against us, if we have low, reciprocal tariffs. Maybe we try to cut China out in favor of Vietnam or India.
I dunno.
But I think it's fixin' to get interesting...
wrote on 4 Apr 2025, 23:26 last edited by@Jolly said in Trumpenomics:
But I think it's fixin' to get interesting...
"Interesting" got here a while ago.
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Y'all may not believe it, but Donald J. Trump is a master at holding a grudge.
Word is, his State Department (and Trump) were pissed during Trump's first term, because of China's reluctance to come anywhere near reciprocity on tariffs.
Maybe...There are countries we are willing to run trade deficits with. Countries we know are not going to buy much from us.
Maybe Trump is willing to let countries run a trade surplus against us, if we have low, reciprocal tariffs. Maybe we try to cut China out in favor of Vietnam or India.
I dunno.
But I think it's fixin' to get interesting...
wrote on 4 Apr 2025, 23:26 last edited by@Jolly said in Trumpenomics:
Y'all may not believe it, but Donald J. Trump is a master at holding a grudge.
Word is, his State Department (and Trump) were pissed during Trump's first term, because of China's reluctance to come anywhere near reciprocity on tariffs.
Maybe...There are countries we are willing to run trade deficits with. Countries we know are not going to buy much from us.
Maybe Trump is willing to let countries run a trade surplus against us, if we have low, reciprocal tariffs. Maybe we try to cut China out in favor of Vietnam or India.
I dunno.
But I think it's fixin' to get interesting...
That makes 0 sense in regards to the actions being taken. You realize that S Korea and fucking Japan have just agreed to act in concert with China in response? He is strengthening China.
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@Jolly said in Trumpenomics:
Y'all may not believe it, but Donald J. Trump is a master at holding a grudge.
Word is, his State Department (and Trump) were pissed during Trump's first term, because of China's reluctance to come anywhere near reciprocity on tariffs.
Maybe...There are countries we are willing to run trade deficits with. Countries we know are not going to buy much from us.
Maybe Trump is willing to let countries run a trade surplus against us, if we have low, reciprocal tariffs. Maybe we try to cut China out in favor of Vietnam or India.
I dunno.
But I think it's fixin' to get interesting...
That makes 0 sense in regards to the actions being taken. You realize that S Korea and fucking Japan have just agreed to act in concert with China in response? He is strengthening China.
wrote on 4 Apr 2025, 23:28 last edited by@LuFins-Dad said in Trumpenomics:
@Jolly said in Trumpenomics:
Y'all may not believe it, but Donald J. Trump is a master at holding a grudge.
Word is, his State Department (and Trump) were pissed during Trump's first term, because of China's reluctance to come anywhere near reciprocity on tariffs.
Maybe...There are countries we are willing to run trade deficits with. Countries we know are not going to buy much from us.
Maybe Trump is willing to let countries run a trade surplus against us, if we have low, reciprocal tariffs. Maybe we try to cut China out in favor of Vietnam or India.
I dunno.
But I think it's fixin' to get interesting...
That makes 0 sense in regards to the actions being taken. You realize that S Korea and fucking Japan have just agreed to act in concert with China in response? He is strengthening China.
As Shapiro notes, other nations have to cooperate for any of this to play to America's advantage. China has a lot more staying power through pain, with its permanent government. They won't cooperate. They'll just wait.