Trumpenomics
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Most of you’ns don’t really care for Shapiro, but the first 10 minutes or so are useful.
Link to video@LuFins-Dad said in Trumpenomics:
Most of you’ns don’t really care for Shapiro, but the first 10 minutes or so are useful.
Link to videoThanks for posting this, I watched the first 10 minutes and appreciated the charts displaying the increase in manufacturing over the last 30-40 years, as well as the shrinking of the middle class because most are shifting into the upper-middle class tier. I also was wondering if the "tariffs charged to the US" figures on Donald's charts were accurate, as Ben points out... no, they are not (IMO, another lie from Donald the Liar).
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So correct me if I'm wrong here with the basics:
the US Federal government is going to tax pretty much every import.
The importing dealer pays the Fed the tax and will then pass on some or all of that tax expense to customers. You.
10% increase in price for you on a bottle of whisky, 25% increase on a Ferrari, much higher tax on shoes from the far east, utilities imported from Canada etc.So your cost of living is going up, probably a lot; your Fed has upped taxes on you, indirectly but dramatically, and is sitting pretty.
Inflation is rising but your salaries aren't.That's the nub?
The rest of the discussion is theory regarding future possibilities of job creation, internal manufacturing investment, the stock market.
@AndyD said in Trumpenomics:
So correct me if I'm wrong here with the basics:
the US Federal government is going to tax pretty much every import.
The importing dealer pays the Fed the tax and will then pass on some or all of that tax expense to customers. You.
10% increase in price for you on a bottle of whisky, 25% increase on a Ferrari, much higher tax on shoes from the far east, utilities imported from Canada etc.So your cost of living is going up, probably a lot; your Fed has upped taxes on you, indirectly but dramatically, and is sitting pretty.
Inflation is rising but your salaries aren't.That's the nub?
Yup.
Just this morning a coworker and I were talking about this, and your summary is what we discussed. Taxes (to IRS) on imports, customers pay more for stuff (or stop buying!), salaries probably don't change... so we have inflation and/or recession.
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It's actually surprising to me how legitimately stupid even the calculation is. I did not expect this level of disconnect from reality, when playing around with economic heavy machinery capable of doing this much destruction.
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It's actually surprising to me how legitimately stupid even the calculation is. I did not expect this level of disconnect from reality, when playing around with economic heavy machinery capable of doing this much destruction.
@Horace said in Trumpenomics:
It's actually surprising to me how legitimately stupid even the calculation is. I did not expect this level of disconnect from reality, when playing around with economic heavy machinery capable of doing this much destruction.
Even as somebody who dislikes Trump I've been surprised by how shit the last couple of weeks has been.
Hell, I had a root-canal on Wednesday and it was actually one of the better parts of the week. The other really enjoyable part has been abusing my Trump-supporting friend during the lunch break at work.
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And still better than the alternative, lol. How embarrassing.
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And still better than the alternative, lol. How embarrassing.
@LuFins-Dad said in Trumpenomics:
And still better than the alternative, lol. How embarrassing.
I'd certainly be embarrassed if I was an American voter rather than just a US taxpayer
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/04/04/europe-china-trade-talks-trump-tariffs/
Spurned by Trump, Europe and China weigh closer economic ties
Jilted European allies are scrambling to hedge their bets in a world where economic and political alliances have been turned upside down by the United States.
Xi and Putin probably feel pretty good right now.
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Well, it just cost me money beyond my 401K… Customer cancelled an order specifically citing how much they lost in the stock market yesterday…
@LuFins-Dad said in Trumpenomics:
Well, it just cost me money beyond my 401K… Customer cancelled an order specifically citing how much they lost in the stock market yesterday…
OTOH, if one is thinking of buying a foreign car, high end audio equipment or piano - I might want to buy today because by next month, it could cost 15-30% more. Today's prices are tomorrow's sales prices.
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A guy with a small business that ships in containers at a cost of $50K from China notes the increase in the cost of goods...from 36 cents in 2024 to $5.76 per unit now. He figures the business will fold in 2025.
@kluurs said in Trumpenomics:
A guy with a small business that ships in containers at a cost of $50K from China notes the increase in the cost of goods...from 36 cents in 2024 to $5.76 per unit now. He figures the business will fold in 2025.
I think a lot of business will be going under, and a lot of jobs will be lost. So many businesses operate on low margins.
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What's almost unfathomable in all of this, is that a good part of the reason the election went the direction that it did - was that a sizeable portion of the country did not buy into the messaging that inflation was coming down. That is, people were impatient with the slowness of the recovery.
So...we're at the very beginnings of the impact of the recent tariff action. The seeds are in the ground - and there's a hint of germination, but nothing big has really come of it. One can still buy things at the grocery and on Amazon for many of the prices that were there a couple of weeks ago - but in most cases, we haven't seen the first fusillade of return fire from Europe and the far east, let alone the impact of the bullets we put in our own foot.
This is gonna be interesting. Is he the genius that MAGA purports, or the idiot/savant/conman who thrives on chaos and overwhelming the system with chicanery?
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What's almost unfathomable in all of this, is that a good part of the reason the election went the direction that it did - was that a sizeable portion of the country did not buy into the messaging that inflation was coming down. That is, people were impatient with the slowness of the recovery.
So...we're at the very beginnings of the impact of the recent tariff action. The seeds are in the ground - and there's a hint of germination, but nothing big has really come of it. One can still buy things at the grocery and on Amazon for many of the prices that were there a couple of weeks ago - but in most cases, we haven't seen the first fusillade of return fire from Europe and the far east, let alone the impact of the bullets we put in our own foot.
This is gonna be interesting. Is he the genius that MAGA purports, or the idiot/savant/conman who thrives on chaos and overwhelming the system with chicanery?
@kluurs said in Trumpenomics:
What's almost unfathomable in all of this, is that a good part of the reason the election went the direction that it did - was that a sizeable portion of the country did not buy into the messaging that inflation was coming down. That is, people were impatient with the slowness of the recovery.
So...we're at the very beginnings of the impact of the recent tariff action. The seeds are in the ground - and there's a hint of germination, but nothing big has really come of it. One can still buy things at the grocery and on Amazon for many of the prices that were there a couple of weeks ago - but in most cases, we haven't seen the first fusillade of return fire from Europe and the far east, let alone the impact of the bullets we put in our own foot.
This is gonna be interesting. Is he the genius that MAGA purports, or the idiot/savant/conman who thrives on chaos and overwhelming the system with chicanery?
This ties into the latest 5D Chess theory al that I’ve heard. This is an effort to manipulate the bond market to lower rates, resulting in a 10 year savings on servicing the debt.
The argument against it is it would be inflationary, driving the FED to raise rates, driving the bond rates back up.
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Still, it has the feel of passing a truck in the opposite lane while staring at an 18 wheeler closing quickly. We're playing chicken with some interesting consequences. Bonds and borrowing - may not perform as predicted should the US become a Perahia in the world market. These tariffs aren't "reciprocal" inasmuch as some of them are against countries with little to no tariffs - and as much as Trump thinks everyone loves a bully, yeah - not so much. Liberation Day may turn out to be the day China's success became assured.
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Here we go...Vietnam wants a tariff of zero. Trump wants to deal...
“Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”
Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton
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Yes, in the interest of fairness, it is worth noting that the EU and Japan have approached us since the announcement to discuss purchasing large amounts of LNG and a few other items.
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Still, it has the feel of passing a truck in the opposite lane while staring at an 18 wheeler closing quickly. We're playing chicken with some interesting consequences. Bonds and borrowing - may not perform as predicted should the US become a Perahia in the world market. These tariffs aren't "reciprocal" inasmuch as some of them are against countries with little to no tariffs - and as much as Trump thinks everyone loves a bully, yeah - not so much. Liberation Day may turn out to be the day China's success became assured.
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Here we go...Vietnam wants a tariff of zero. Trump wants to deal...
@Jolly said in Trumpenomics:
Here we go...
VietnamNike wants a tariff of zero. Trump wants to deal...FIFY. Vietnam is the junior partner.
But you knew that already.
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Still, it has the feel of passing a truck in the opposite lane while staring at an 18 wheeler closing quickly. We're playing chicken with some interesting consequences. Bonds and borrowing - may not perform as predicted should the US become a Perahia in the world market. These tariffs aren't "reciprocal" inasmuch as some of them are against countries with little to no tariffs - and as much as Trump thinks everyone loves a bully, yeah - not so much. Liberation Day may turn out to be the day China's success became assured.
@kluurs said in Trumpenomics:
Still, it has the feel of passing a truck in the opposite lane while staring at an 18 wheeler closing quickly. We're playing chicken with some interesting consequences. Bonds and borrowing - may not perform as predicted should the US become a Perahia in the world market. These tariffs aren't "reciprocal" inasmuch as some of them are against countries with little to no tariffs - and as much as Trump thinks everyone loves a bully, yeah - not so much. Liberation Day may turn out to be the day China's success became assured.
As Shapiro noted, most of these trade deficits are due to the nations A) being much smaller, there simply isn’t enough demand for US products in countries that size to match the US interest in their products and B) very poor. Vietnam has a GDP Per Capita of $4,289 with a median income of $7200 per year. How the hell do you expect them to make up a $125 Billion trade deficit? Ridiculous.
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I would expect a prosperous nation of consumers to have huge trade deficits with less prosperous nations.
I wish I knew how trade deficits got confused with tariff differences. But it's not confusion, it's just opportunistic false messaging.
Education is extremely important.
