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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. Trumpenomics

Trumpenomics

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  • HoraceH Horace

    There was always a fair case to be made that the market was overvalued (and continues to be). But that doesn't mean that this correction has anything to do with anything other than the chaos tariffs.

    jon-nycJ Offline
    jon-nycJ Offline
    jon-nyc
    wrote on last edited by jon-nyc
    #182

    @Horace said in Trumpenomics:

    There was always a fair case to be made that the market was overvalued (and continues to be). But that doesn't mean that this correction has anything to do with anything other than the chaos tariffs.

    My point was they (Trump and his financial team) never even hinted that they believed that before the Trump sell off.

    You were warned.

    HoraceH 1 Reply Last reply
    • X Offline
      X Offline
      xenon
      wrote on last edited by
      #183

      Existing over valuation - if it were real - makes the situation worse.

      The fed will use its dry powder to combat the tariff-induced slowdown. When (if) the real slowdown comes, we’re extra fucked.

      1 Reply Last reply
      • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

        @Horace said in Trumpenomics:

        There was always a fair case to be made that the market was overvalued (and continues to be). But that doesn't mean that this correction has anything to do with anything other than the chaos tariffs.

        My point was they (Trump and his financial team) never even hinted that they believed that before the Trump sell off.

        HoraceH Offline
        HoraceH Offline
        Horace
        wrote on last edited by
        #184

        @jon-nyc said in Trumpenomics:

        @Horace said in Trumpenomics:

        There was always a fair case to be made that the market was overvalued (and continues to be). But that doesn't mean that this correction has anything to do with anything other than the chaos tariffs.

        My point was they (Trump and his financial team) never even hinted that they believed that before the Trump sell off.

        I took your point, that they are using situational rhetoric. That would be ubiquitous in all of politics.

        Education is extremely important.

        1 Reply Last reply
        • HoraceH Offline
          HoraceH Offline
          Horace
          wrote on last edited by
          #185

          I wonder how much money will go to the coffers through these tariffs. It seems like that's never talked about. I'm not sure it's even budgeted in the deficit forecasts. Of course, nobody knows what the tariffs will be, so there's good reason not to budget them.

          Education is extremely important.

          1 Reply Last reply
          • X Offline
            X Offline
            xenon
            wrote on last edited by
            #186

            Current total tariffable trade is $4T. At 25% that’d be $1T.

            But either the tariffs are about stopping imports to stimulate domestic producers or it’s about raising revenue. Can’t be both.

            HoraceH jon-nycJ 2 Replies Last reply
            • X xenon

              Current total tariffable trade is $4T. At 25% that’d be $1T.

              But either the tariffs are about stopping imports to stimulate domestic producers or it’s about raising revenue. Can’t be both.

              HoraceH Offline
              HoraceH Offline
              Horace
              wrote on last edited by Horace
              #187

              @xenon I think the practical effect of tariffs is necessarily a bit of both.

              But the part where it's a supposedly good thing to bring back a bunch of mindless assembly line jobs at inflated wages in a dying industry that is destined to be overtaken by machines, makes me a little sick in my stomach. Then if it got to the point where we didn't allow those jobs to be overtaken by machines, because of union protectionism, while the rest of the world sprinted past us with automation, that becomes dystopic. Manufacturing jobs are nobody's American dream.

              Education is extremely important.

              1 Reply Last reply
              • LuFins DadL Offline
                LuFins DadL Offline
                LuFins Dad
                wrote on last edited by
                #188

                If it was possible to have factories up and running within a month or two, this still wouldn’t have merit.

                The Brad

                HoraceH 1 Reply Last reply
                • X xenon

                  Current total tariffable trade is $4T. At 25% that’d be $1T.

                  But either the tariffs are about stopping imports to stimulate domestic producers or it’s about raising revenue. Can’t be both.

                  jon-nycJ Offline
                  jon-nycJ Offline
                  jon-nyc
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #189

                  @xenon said in Trumpenomics:

                  Current total tariffable trade is $4T. At 25% that’d be $1T.

                  About a quarter of that are services, many really difficult to put tariffs on. Example: travel. When you go to Portugal and get a hotel room in Lisbon, that counts as an ‘import’.

                  Imported goods are more like 3T. Of course the tariffs affect demand so you can’t just multiply that by 0.25. But it’s still a lot of money in taxes on the American people.

                  You were warned.

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

                    If it was possible to have factories up and running within a month or two, this still wouldn’t have merit.

                    HoraceH Offline
                    HoraceH Offline
                    Horace
                    wrote on last edited by Horace
                    #190

                    @LuFins-Dad said in Trumpenomics:

                    If it was possible to have factories up and running within a month or two, this still wouldn’t have merit.

                    I have hope that automation will be allowed to continue apace, and having automated factories in America would actually be a good thing. Musk is a pioneer of factory automation, so it's not far-fetched that this is in the mind of the administration.

                    The other hope would be that the tariffs are a negotiating tool which will motivate more advantageous trade agreements for America.

                    Education is extremely important.

                    RenaudaR 1 Reply Last reply
                    • HoraceH Horace

                      @LuFins-Dad said in Trumpenomics:

                      If it was possible to have factories up and running within a month or two, this still wouldn’t have merit.

                      I have hope that automation will be allowed to continue apace, and having automated factories in America would actually be a good thing. Musk is a pioneer of factory automation, so it's not far-fetched that this is in the mind of the administration.

                      The other hope would be that the tariffs are a negotiating tool which will motivate more advantageous trade agreements for America.

                      RenaudaR Offline
                      RenaudaR Offline
                      Renauda
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #191

                      @Horace

                      The other hope would be that the tariffs are a negotiating tool which will motivate more advantageous trade agreements for America.

                      Take dairy. Hypothetically Canada caves and gets rid of its supply management that assigns the US a tariff free quota for dairy products. We too revert back to a government subsidy system as in the US and EU, to keep our domestic dairy industry viable - you know, the Support Your Local Farmer ethos. The problem though is that consumers here are so pissed off at the US that they refuse to buy US produced dairy products. Canadian distributors and suppliers stop importing because the demand is not there. Consumers would rather pay a premium for Canadian or EU made products because they are not of US origin.

                      Once again I come back to the statement, you cannot fool the market.

                      Elbows up!

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • JollyJ Offline
                        JollyJ Offline
                        Jolly
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #192
                        1. I think real estate is still in a bubble.
                        2. I also think a lot of P/E ratios are hideous.

                        “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                        Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                        AxtremusA 1 Reply Last reply
                        • JollyJ Jolly
                          1. I think real estate is still in a bubble.
                          2. I also think a lot of P/E ratios are hideous.
                          AxtremusA Away
                          AxtremusA Away
                          Axtremus
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #193

                          @Jolly said in Trumpenomics:

                          1. I think real estate is still in a bubble.
                          2. I also think a lot of P/E ratios are hideous.

                          High asset prices and high PE ratios are products of market and consumer optimism.

                          I think the Trump policies are doing a great number on that optimism.

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • jon-nycJ Offline
                            jon-nycJ Offline
                            jon-nyc
                            wrote on last edited by jon-nyc
                            #194

                            I don’t see the sociological signs of a housing bubble but I agree with you on P/Es.

                            Housing is expensive, largely because we subsidize homeborrowership while restricting the fuck out of new supply.

                            It could come down as interest rates go back up, which seems inevitable.

                            You were warned.

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • jon-nycJ Offline
                              jon-nycJ Offline
                              jon-nyc
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #195

                              Funny from the Cato guy.

                              You were warned.

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • CopperC Offline
                                CopperC Offline
                                Copper
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #196

                                If this is a good forecast housing might get a little cheaper.

                                https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/bank-lending-rate

                                United States Average Monthly Prime Lending Rate

                                image.png

                                1 Reply Last reply
                                • JollyJ Offline
                                  JollyJ Offline
                                  Jolly
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #197

                                  Well, it helps that baby boomers are dying, too.

                                  “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                                  Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                                  1 Reply Last reply
                                  • jon-nycJ Offline
                                    jon-nycJ Offline
                                    jon-nyc
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #198

                                    You were warned.

                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    • jon-nycJ Offline
                                      jon-nycJ Offline
                                      jon-nyc
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #199

                                      IMG_3672.jpeg

                                      You were warned.

                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      • AxtremusA Away
                                        AxtremusA Away
                                        Axtremus
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #200

                                        Recession, "detox," "worth the pain," "not that bad" ...

                                        https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/18/business/economy/trump-recession-tariffs-inflation.html?unlocked_article_code=1.404.CP0f.04Af70FBQrUj

                                        Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary, has said Mr. Trump’s policies are “worth it” even if they cause a recession. Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, has said the economy may need a “detox period” after becoming dependent on government spending. And Mr. Trump has said there will be a “period of transition” as his policies take effect.

                                        “It’s the kind of language that you use when your policy isn’t going great and you can see that it’s actively harming people,” ...

                                        1 Reply Last reply
                                        • Doctor PhibesD Offline
                                          Doctor PhibesD Offline
                                          Doctor Phibes
                                          wrote on last edited by Doctor Phibes
                                          #201

                                          They'll change their tune pretty quickly if there is a recession and Trump's popularity goes down the toilet.

                                          A bunch of millionaires and billionaires telling regular folk that they need to suffer for the common good is really going to go down well.

                                          I was only joking

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