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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
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  3. Trumpenomics

Trumpenomics

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  • jon-nycJ Offline
    jon-nycJ Offline
    jon-nyc
    wrote last edited by
    #1020

    I was on an investment strategy call with Merrill and they still think the tariffs are mostly a tactical threat and that they still expect decent corporate earnings for Q2, many coming out this week.

    Thank you for your attention to this matter.

    1 Reply Last reply
    • jon-nycJ Offline
      jon-nycJ Offline
      jon-nyc
      wrote last edited by jon-nyc
      #1021

      One funny thing though, they always come up with pithy names for various bear market episodes when they refer to them or compare them across time.

      Example, the dot-com bust, the Great Financial Crisis, Covid, etc.

      The name they settled on for the spring bear market and the associated volatility is ‘The Tariff Tantrum’.

      Thank you for your attention to this matter.

      1 Reply Last reply
      • AxtremusA Away
        AxtremusA Away
        Axtremus
        wrote last edited by
        #1022

        https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/15/us/politics/canada-tariffs-mark-carney-trump.html

        Canada’s Leader Says There’s Little Hope of Avoiding U.S. Tariffs
        After long insisting that Canada could avoid Trump tariffs through talks, Mark Carney now says that is unlikely for any nation.

        Maybe the sh!t will hit the fan for real this time. 🤷

        RenaudaR 1 Reply Last reply
        • 89th8 Offline
          89th8 Offline
          89th
          wrote last edited by
          #1023

          So basically time the Trump Tariff Tantrum and make some money but get out of the market before the great dollar collapse of 2035?

          1 Reply Last reply
          • jon-nycJ Offline
            jon-nycJ Offline
            jon-nyc
            wrote last edited by
            #1024

            We’ll see. Their ‘base case’ forecast is always pretty optimistic. They are in the business of getting you to invest your money after all, not put it in your mattress.

            Thank you for your attention to this matter.

            B 1 Reply Last reply
            • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

              We’ll see. Their ‘base case’ forecast is always pretty optimistic. They are in the business of getting you to invest your money after all, not put it in your mattress.

              B Offline
              B Offline
              blondie
              wrote last edited by
              #1025

              @jon-nyc said in Trumpenomics:

              We’ll see. Their ‘base case’ forecast is always pretty optimistic. They are in the business of getting you to invest your money after all, not put it in your mattress.

              I’m having to attend a little strategy lunch with my finance guy tomorrow. I’m wondering what he’ll propose and how I’l react. My son had his meeting last week, and now a small portion of his portfolio has been infused with Crypto. AI and Bitcoin seem to be topics of Zoom meetings and webinars of late, but I don’t understand this stuff, .. at my stage of life, I hesitate. Yet I’ve too much sitting as cash, and my freeholder stuff isn’t flowing so well now. I’m quite tired of your president’s Tariff Tantum.

              1 Reply Last reply
              • AxtremusA Axtremus

                https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/15/us/politics/canada-tariffs-mark-carney-trump.html

                Canada’s Leader Says There’s Little Hope of Avoiding U.S. Tariffs
                After long insisting that Canada could avoid Trump tariffs through talks, Mark Carney now says that is unlikely for any nation.

                Maybe the sh!t will hit the fan for real this time. 🤷

                RenaudaR Offline
                RenaudaR Offline
                Renauda
                wrote last edited by
                #1026

                @Axtremus said in Trumpenomics:

                https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/15/us/politics/canada-tariffs-mark-carney-trump.html

                Canada’s Leader Says There’s Little Hope of Avoiding U.S. Tariffs
                After long insisting that Canada could avoid Trump tariffs through talks, Mark Carney now says that is unlikely for any nation.

                Maybe the sh!t will hit the fan for real this time. 🤷

                Carney is just being realistic about the future trading relationship. No sense looking at it any other way.

                Canada will just have to build closer trade and investment relations with the UK, EU, the Asian markets and South America where practicable.

                Elbows up!

                1 Reply Last reply
                • jon-nycJ Offline
                  jon-nycJ Offline
                  jon-nyc
                  wrote last edited by
                  #1027

                  By the way, Trump put a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports. That’s where 1/3 of our coffee comes from.

                  I read that if you grew coffee on every square inch of land in the US that can grow coffee, most of which is in Hawaii, it would keep the Pacific Northwest supplied with coffee for a week.

                  Thank you for your attention to this matter.

                  LuFins DadL 1 Reply Last reply
                  • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                    By the way, Trump put a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports. That’s where 1/3 of our coffee comes from.

                    I read that if you grew coffee on every square inch of land in the US that can grow coffee, most of which is in Hawaii, it would keep the Pacific Northwest supplied with coffee for a week.

                    LuFins DadL Offline
                    LuFins DadL Offline
                    LuFins Dad
                    wrote last edited by
                    #1028

                    @jon-nyc said in Trumpenomics:

                    By the way, Trump put a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports. That’s where 1/3 of our coffee comes from.

                    I read that if you grew coffee on every square inch of land in the US that can grow coffee, most of which is in Hawaii, it would keep the Pacific Northwest supplied with coffee for a week.

                    FFS, coffee beans are already wholesaling for 2x-3x what they were 5 years ago. My favorite coffee that I was buying for $12 a bag in 2020 is $18 right now…

                    The Brad

                    AxtremusA 1 Reply Last reply
                    • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

                      @jon-nyc said in Trumpenomics:

                      By the way, Trump put a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports. That’s where 1/3 of our coffee comes from.

                      I read that if you grew coffee on every square inch of land in the US that can grow coffee, most of which is in Hawaii, it would keep the Pacific Northwest supplied with coffee for a week.

                      FFS, coffee beans are already wholesaling for 2x-3x what they were 5 years ago. My favorite coffee that I was buying for $12 a bag in 2020 is $18 right now…

                      AxtremusA Away
                      AxtremusA Away
                      Axtremus
                      wrote last edited by
                      #1029

                      @LuFins-Dad said in Trumpenomics:

                      FFS, coffee beans are already wholesaling for 2x-3x what they were 5 years ago. My favorite coffee that I was buying for $12 a bag in 2020 is $18 right now…

                      Calm down, man. Just think about the alternative. Is it still better than the alternative?

                      LuFins DadL 1 Reply Last reply
                      • AxtremusA Axtremus

                        @LuFins-Dad said in Trumpenomics:

                        FFS, coffee beans are already wholesaling for 2x-3x what they were 5 years ago. My favorite coffee that I was buying for $12 a bag in 2020 is $18 right now…

                        Calm down, man. Just think about the alternative. Is it still better than the alternative?

                        LuFins DadL Offline
                        LuFins DadL Offline
                        LuFins Dad
                        wrote last edited by
                        #1030

                        @Axtremus said in Trumpenomics:

                        @LuFins-Dad said in Trumpenomics:

                        FFS, coffee beans are already wholesaling for 2x-3x what they were 5 years ago. My favorite coffee that I was buying for $12 a bag in 2020 is $18 right now…

                        Calm down, man. Just think about the alternative. Is it still better than the alternative?

                        Oh fuck yeah.

                        The Brad

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • jon-nycJ Offline
                          jon-nycJ Offline
                          jon-nyc
                          wrote last edited by jon-nyc
                          #1031

                          He’s thirty points underwater on inflation. Even though tariff inflation is only just getting started.

                          I think a lot it is that many people think ‘taming inflation’ means bringing prices down to some level where they’re ‘supposed to be’. Trump encouraged then to think this way during the campaign.

                          IMG_6355.jpeg

                          Thank you for your attention to this matter.

                          Doctor PhibesD 1 Reply Last reply
                          • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                            He’s thirty points underwater on inflation. Even though tariff inflation is only just getting started.

                            I think a lot it is that many people think ‘taming inflation’ means bringing prices down to some level where they’re ‘supposed to be’. Trump encouraged then to think this way during the campaign.

                            IMG_6355.jpeg

                            Doctor PhibesD Offline
                            Doctor PhibesD Offline
                            Doctor Phibes
                            wrote last edited by
                            #1032

                            @jon-nyc said in Trumpenomics:

                            I think a lot it is that many people think ‘taming inflation’ means bringing prices down to some level where they’re ‘supposed to be’. Trump encouraged then to think this way during the campaign.

                            What are you talking about? Eggs are going for 2 cents each in Trump's Fantasy World, gas is 79 cents a gallon, and gallons are now 10 pints!

                            I was only joking

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • 89th8 Offline
                              89th8 Offline
                              89th
                              wrote last edited by
                              #1033

                              "many people have told me" he says, too

                              Doctor PhibesD 1 Reply Last reply
                              • 89th8 89th

                                "many people have told me" he says, too

                                Doctor PhibesD Offline
                                Doctor PhibesD Offline
                                Doctor Phibes
                                wrote last edited by
                                #1034

                                @89th said in Trumpenomics:

                                "many people have told me" he says, too

                                Presumably not the 'Very Bad People' who whisper to him from under the stairs about Jeffrey Epstein's list while he's waiting for the stairlift to arrive, but the 'Very Fine People' who tell him he's the Greatest President Ever on the hour, every hour.

                                I was only joking

                                1 Reply Last reply
                                • X Offline
                                  X Offline
                                  xenon
                                  wrote last edited by
                                  #1035

                                  Im still salty that Trump normalized MMT across republicans.

                                  We’re in for some pain in the future.

                                  HoraceH 1 Reply Last reply
                                  • X xenon

                                    Im still salty that Trump normalized MMT across republicans.

                                    We’re in for some pain in the future.

                                    HoraceH Offline
                                    HoraceH Offline
                                    Horace
                                    wrote last edited by
                                    #1036

                                    @xenon said in Trumpenomics:

                                    Im still salty that Trump normalized MMT across republicans.

                                    We’re in for some pain in the future.

                                    There was never any stopping that train, and the budget deficit would have been worse under Harris.

                                    Education is extremely important.

                                    X 1 Reply Last reply
                                    • HoraceH Horace

                                      @xenon said in Trumpenomics:

                                      Im still salty that Trump normalized MMT across republicans.

                                      We’re in for some pain in the future.

                                      There was never any stopping that train, and the budget deficit would have been worse under Harris.

                                      X Offline
                                      X Offline
                                      xenon
                                      wrote last edited by
                                      #1037

                                      @Horace said in Trumpenomics:

                                      @xenon said in Trumpenomics:

                                      Im still salty that Trump normalized MMT across republicans.

                                      We’re in for some pain in the future.

                                      There was never any stopping that train, and the budget deficit would have been worse under Harris.

                                      I don’t know. Harris would have had a lot to prove. The republicans would have howled to the high heavens about the deficit (but would have also given her shit if she didn’t cut taxes).

                                      But they would have at least stuck to their traditional stance of deficits=bad.

                                      I expect this sort of profligacy from the Dems.

                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      • jon-nycJ Offline
                                        jon-nycJ Offline
                                        jon-nyc
                                        wrote last edited by jon-nyc
                                        #1038

                                        There’s talk of firing Powell again. I doubt he goes there. It’s just threats that will be ineffective. I mean the guy is gone in 10 months anyway, is he going to sell out to Trump or preserve his reputation and that of the Fed?

                                        Thank you for your attention to this matter.

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