Looks like a 10 point swing in betting odds
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wrote on 28 Aug 2020, 17:15 last edited by
Trump’s closed rapidly over the last couple of weeks.
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wrote on 29 Aug 2020, 03:42 last edited by
The BLM effect is wearing off.
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wrote on 29 Aug 2020, 03:46 last edited by
Hasn’t shown up in the polling averages yet but I fully expect tightening.
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wrote on 31 Aug 2020, 17:44 last edited by LuFins Dad
Holy Crap.
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wrote on 31 Aug 2020, 18:32 last edited by
NPR was saying today the "support BLM" in Wisconsin that was +25% (meaning 75% favored it, 25% didn't) in June is now back at +0%, or 50/50.
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wrote on 31 Aug 2020, 18:54 last edited by
People are tired of this crap. I would think the number of deaths so far exceeds the number of illegal police deaths.
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wrote on 31 Aug 2020, 19:28 last edited by
It’s not just the BLM stuff. I think there is also a COVID backlash. I have taken to stopping a couple times a week at an outdoor beer garden and in conversations with other patrons ALOT of people are thinking that much of this has been exaggerated at least a bit for political reasons and we’re pissed as hell. More than a few were self described former democrats.
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wrote on 31 Aug 2020, 19:34 last edited by
Democrats tend to systematically overplay their hands politically, I suppose. The true believers live in social bubbles of their own careful creation, so it takes a while for the notion that people might disagree to seep in.
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Democrats tend to systematically overplay their hands politically, I suppose. The true believers live in social bubbles of their own careful creation, so it takes a while for the notion that people might disagree to seep in.
wrote on 31 Aug 2020, 20:08 last edited by@Horace said in Looks like a 10 point swing in betting odds:
Democrats tend to systematically overplay their hands politically, I suppose. The true believers live in social bubbles of their own careful creation, so it takes a while for the notion that people might disagree to seep in.
Pardon, I mean it takes a while for them to realize that reasonable people might disagree. Of course the notion that evil people disagree is the whole point of being a progressive to begin with. So it's always a given that the evil people disagree with them.
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wrote on 2 Sept 2020, 11:41 last edited by
I never would have expected this a month ago.
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wrote on 2 Sept 2020, 12:06 last edited by
The country wants the rioters put down but when it comes to saying it out loud, people are still bowing to the progressive shame machinery.
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wrote on 2 Sept 2020, 13:16 last edited by
I wonder how this is parsed by those who enjoy giggling at the absurdity of Trump running against the riots, i.e. running against a thing that is happening in the country while he's president. I suppose those people simply can't comprehend why anybody might consider Trump and the right in general the answer to the riots rather than the cause. It's like TDS has parasitically taken control of their minds and is causing their mouths to make TDS noises exclusively, rather than thoughtful human sounds.
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wrote on 2 Sept 2020, 15:30 last edited by
@LuFins-Dad But to be clear, these are betting odds, not actual polls. (One might argue the former is a better gauge, lol)
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@LuFins-Dad But to be clear, these are betting odds, not actual polls. (One might argue the former is a better gauge, lol)
wrote on 2 Sept 2020, 16:25 last edited by -
wrote on 2 Sept 2020, 16:34 last edited by
So does this just imply a lot of people are betting on Trump to win, so the bookies are adjusting the odds to match?
Or maybe it implies that people with a gambling addiction are more likely to vote for Trump?
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wrote on 4 Oct 2020, 02:44 last edited by
@jon-nyc said in Looks like a 10 point swing in betting odds:
Maybe just because they are giving really really good odds!!!
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wrote on 4 Oct 2020, 02:45 last edited by
The odds are endogenous.
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wrote on 4 Oct 2020, 02:52 last edited by
@jon-nyc said in Looks like a 10 point swing in betting odds:
The odds are endogenous.
Okay, I had to look up that word, and still dont understand 55555
endogenous adjective
en·dog·e·nous | \ en-ˈdä-jə-nəs
Definition of endogenous
1 : growing or produced by growth from deep tissue- endogenous plant roots
2a : caused by factors inside the organism or system
- suffered from endogenous depression
endogenous business cycles
b : produced or synthesized within the organism or system
- an endogenous hormone
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wrote on 4 Oct 2020, 02:53 last edited by jon-nyc 10 Apr 2020, 02:54
Those probabilities are inferred from the betting.
