It’s starting

[LuFins Dad]

@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

Still well above the 2016/20 levels… Little surprised she got a small uptick. Was there a poll release that I missed?

[jon-nyc]

Not sure, could be state level polls, could also be polls aging out of the model.

[LuFins Dad]

This hasn’t been a very good week for her.

1. Mayorkas begging for more money during Hellene recovery efforts after $1 BILLION! Has been spent on on migrants on TPS and other programs over the last 2 years? Not good for the Border Czar.

2. The Hellene response hasn’t been good, period.

3. She and Joe look REALLY bad after telling Iran “Don’t” and they did. The statement she made afterward? Comeon… This woman doesn’t want the job.

4. Walz had his ass handed to him. Worse, Vance came across as reasonable and blew the whole “weird” thing away.

5. The whole hubby smacking his girlfriend around thing. I’m actually seriously wondering if she wants to be there, or he wants her to be there. And I’m not alone in that suspicion.

[Mik]

Ok now it’s a dick up against a cat head eating a snail.

[George K]

Not Nate:

https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president

[LuFins Dad]

[LuFins Dad]

50/50

[Doctor Phibes]

I don't know about you chaps, but a Trump victory has always felt a little inevitable to me.

I say this primarily because I've generally been wrong with every single election prediction I make.

[kluurs]

Yeah, I'm still waiting on the last minute surprise from either side. Another hurricane would make things interesting. Trump's folks are solid.

Harris is also caught in the pincer of trying to support Israel while keeping support from the Palestinian activists - a tough needle to thread that Trump needn't worry about. Did any of you listen to the recent This American Life? In swing state Michigan, they had 100K potential voters who are none to happy with the Harris campaign for not having any Palestinian supporter speak at the convention. Where a 10K swing can mean the difference between success and failure - not a great place to be.

[89th]

I know we lost a few posts in this thread after the forum reset. I agreed with the Doc about the Trump victory although I did misspeak (@LuFins-Dad) and didn't mean to imply it has always felt inevitable, just that if it's 50/50 now I am surprised Trump is gaining ground after he lost the debate, and if it's 50/50 now, and his poll numbers usually underestimate the actual voter support (see 2016), then his victory seems likely. I still think Harris will regain the edge and hold it through a November win but my predictions are so bad, who cares, LOL.

I also made a comment that @Jolly disagreed with that basically I thought Trump could easily be in the lead if he learned to just adjust his tone, be more hopeful, polite, respectful, and remorseful of Jan 6th. It would earn back a number of people who might vote for him but can't because of his election denial tantrum and the resulting chaos. Here's a great example of what I mean... emphasis mine.

---

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-january-6-univision-town-hall/

Washington — Former President Donald Trump insisted that the Jan. 6 attack, when his supporters stormed the Capitol and assaulted scores of law enforcement officers, was not a day of violence, but a "day of love" when "nothing" was "done wrong."

The Republican presidential nominee was asked about the assault on the Capitol at a Univision town hall on Wednesday, where a voter who said he used to be a registered Republican but was troubled by Trump's behavior during the riot said the former president could still win his vote.

"I want to give you the opportunity to try to win back my vote. OK?" said the voter. "Your — I'm going to say — action and maybe inaction during your presidency, and the last few years, sort of, was a little disturbing to me. What happened Jan. 6 and the fact that, you know, you waited so long to take action while your supporters were attacking the Capitol. ... I'm curious how people so close to you and your administration no longer want to support you, so why would I want to support you? If you would answer these questions for me I would really appreciate it, and give you the opportunity. You know, your own vice president doesn't want to support you now."

Trump responded by blasting former Vice President Mike Pence, saying he "totally disagreed with him on what he did," an apparent reference to Pence's refusal to reject the Electoral College votes after the 2020 presidential election. Pence has repeatedly — and accurately — said he had no constitutional authority to do anything but accept the results, withstanding repeated attacks from Trump and Trump's supporters.

Trump said of his supporters who came to Washington on Jan. 6, "They didn't come because of me — they came because of the election. They thought the election was a rigged election, and that's why they came."

But just over two weeks before Jan. 6, on Dec. 19, 2020, Trump had tweeted, "Big protest in D.C. on January 6th. Be there, will be wild!"

Trump went on to say some of his supporters "went down to the Capitol, I said peacefully and patriotically. Nothing done wrong, at all, nothing done wrong. And action was taken, strong action. Ashli Babbitt was killed, nobody was killed.

"There were no guns down there, we didn't have guns," Trump continued. "The others had guns, but we didn't have guns. And when I say we, these are people that walked down. This was a tiny percentage of the overall, which nobody sees and nobody shows. But that was a day of love from the standpoint of the millions, it's like hundreds of thousands, it could have been the largest group I've ever spoken before. They asked me to speak, I went, and I spoke. And I used the term peacefully and patriotically."

Trump's portrayal of Jan. 6, which he often repeats, bears little resemblance to the violent scene that played out at the Capitol that day.

More than 1,000 people have been convicted in the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, and about 350 trials are still pending. Hundreds of defendants have been charged with assaulting, resisting or impeding officers or employees, including over 100 people charged with using a deadly or dangerous weapon or causing serious bodily injury to an officer, according to the Justice Department's figures from January 2024.

About 140 police officers were assaulted on Jan. 6 — roughly 80 from the U.S. Capitol Police and about 60 from D.C.'s Metropolitan Police Department. Four people died at the Capitol that day, and one officer who was on duty during the riot died days later. Four police officers who were stationed at the Capitol on Jan. 6 died by suicide in the months that followed.

Trump's statement that there were no guns at all is false. Court documents, photos and video show several rioters had firearms, in addition to other weapons like knives and bats. Others used flagpoles as weapons and pepper and bear spray.

The former president didn't address the voter's question about what he was doing on Jan. 6 while the rioters began their march on the Capitol and breached the building.

A wall of Trump's supporters arrived at the Capitol at 12:45 p.m. on Jan. 6, having marched across the National Mall after Trump addressed a crowd near the White House that morning. D.C. police declared a riot at the Capitol at 1:49 p.m., and the U.S. Capitol Police chief called the D.C. National Guard commanding general to request immediate assistance. As rioters were assaulting the Capitol, endangering members of Congress and Pence, Trump tweeted that "Mike Pence didn't have the courage to do what should have been done to protect our Country and our Constitution."

Shortly after 2:30 p.m., Trump tweeted, "Please support our Capitol Police and Law Enforcement. They are truly on the side of our Country. Stay peaceful!" But at that time, he did not urge his supporters to stand down. It wasn't until 4:17 p.m. that Trump on social media urged rioters to go home, while also falsely claiming the election had been "stolen." He offered no proof to back up his accusation.

[Jolly]

J6 is ancient history for most people not in the Beltway. Elections are about tomorrow. not yesterday.

[LuFins Dad]

Watch all the excitement on both sides over what is still a coin flip.

[Mik]

I think that will increase with exposure the vacuousness that is Harris.

[Jolly]

Today she said Trump was exhausted and cutting his schedule. That he did not have the energy to be President.

Trump did the Al Smith Dinner last night, Fox & Friends this early morning, two other events today and is in Michigan tonight for a rally.

[89th]

Saw this today.

https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/s/TIhPalLU3o

Obviously my prediction skills suck and I still think Harris will win by an awkwardly slim electoral margin, this should give folks like me major pause. If Biden barely won in 2020 (in terms of voters in swing states), and the margin is even closer this time…

[Jolly]

We all knew that "Joy" was temporary. Kamala-lama-ding-dong basked in the afterglow too !ong. She didn't get out and campaign, doing interviews, taking hard questions and thinking on her feet..You know, the things you do during primaries. The learning process.

She's gotten better. She didn't have to go far.

But is it too late?

[taiwan_girl]

@Jolly said in It’s starting:

........Trump ...cutting his schedule.

Its true

Trump cancels NRA speech and interviews with NBC and CNBC due to 'scheduling conflicts' — but goes on 'Fox & Friends'

...several interviews that Trump had scheduled this week were scrapped, including an interview with NBC and an appearance on CNBC’s Squawk Box. And a sit-down with the Shade Room, a cultural website with a predominantly young Black audience that recently interviewed Harris, was reportedly nixed because, according to a Trump adviser, the Republican nominee was “exhausted.”

and

Meanwhile, the National Rifle Association announced Thursday that it has canceled an event in Savannah, Ga., that was set to feature Trump as its keynote speaker due to a campaign scheduling conflict.

Having said that, both candidates are keeping up crazy schedules. I am tired looking at their schedules.

[LuFins Dad]

They are now essentially where we were when I started this topic

](

[Jolly]

I think the FOX interview hurt her.

[LuFins Dad]

@Jolly said in It’s starting:

I think the FOX interview hurt her.

I don’t think that shows up in the polls until next week. I think this is still just the results of the really bad Hurricane response, Israel/Iran, and her general incompetence.