It’s starting

[LuFins Dad]

Weird, RCP shows a .2 drop for Kamala this morning, but I haven’t seen any polls posted to support the drop.

[LuFins Dad]

Nate posted this today. It brought a smile to my face https://www.huffpost.com/entry/whats-wrong-with-538_b_581ffe18e4b0334571e09e74

[Axtremus]

@LuFins-Dad said in It’s starting:

Weird, RCP shows a .2 drop for Kamala this morning, but I haven’t seen any polls posted to support the drop.

Probably just changing weights as polls age.

[Axtremus]

@LuFins-Dad said in It’s starting:

Nate posted this today. It brought a smile to my face https://www.huffpost.com/entry/whats-wrong-with-538_b_581ffe18e4b0334571e09e74

This links to an article dated Nov. 2016. You sure that's what you intended to post?

[LuFins Dad]

@Axtremus said in It’s starting:

@LuFins-Dad said in It’s starting:

Nate posted this today. It brought a smile to my face https://www.huffpost.com/entry/whats-wrong-with-538_b_581ffe18e4b0334571e09e74

This links to an article dated Nov. 2016. You sure that's what you intended to post?

Yes.

[Horace]

Ax can't imagine why Silver would want to post a link to that.

Ax's imagination should be studied by scientists.

[jon-nyc]

[LuFins Dad]

@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

So Trump is performing 25% better than he was in 2016 and 300% better than he did in 2020? I’ll take it.

[jon-nyc]

Maybe the model is performing better.

[LuFins Dad]

Yeah, hang your coat on that peg.

[jon-nyc]

[LuFins Dad]

@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

Still well above the 2016/20 levels… Little surprised she got a small uptick. Was there a poll release that I missed?

[jon-nyc]

Not sure, could be state level polls, could also be polls aging out of the model.

[LuFins Dad]

This hasn’t been a very good week for her.

1. Mayorkas begging for more money during Hellene recovery efforts after $1 BILLION! Has been spent on on migrants on TPS and other programs over the last 2 years? Not good for the Border Czar.

2. The Hellene response hasn’t been good, period.

3. She and Joe look REALLY bad after telling Iran “Don’t” and they did. The statement she made afterward? Comeon… This woman doesn’t want the job.

4. Walz had his ass handed to him. Worse, Vance came across as reasonable and blew the whole “weird” thing away.

5. The whole hubby smacking his girlfriend around thing. I’m actually seriously wondering if she wants to be there, or he wants her to be there. And I’m not alone in that suspicion.

[Mik]

Ok now it’s a dick up against a cat head eating a snail.

[George K]

Not Nate:

https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president

[LuFins Dad]

[LuFins Dad]

50/50

[Doctor Phibes]

I don't know about you chaps, but a Trump victory has always felt a little inevitable to me.

I say this primarily because I've generally been wrong with every single election prediction I make.

[kluurs]

Yeah, I'm still waiting on the last minute surprise from either side. Another hurricane would make things interesting. Trump's folks are solid.

Harris is also caught in the pincer of trying to support Israel while keeping support from the Palestinian activists - a tough needle to thread that Trump needn't worry about. Did any of you listen to the recent This American Life? In swing state Michigan, they had 100K potential voters who are none to happy with the Harris campaign for not having any Palestinian supporter speak at the convention. Where a 10K swing can mean the difference between success and failure - not a great place to be.