It’s starting

[Tom-K]

Damn, that's scary. (While I am NOT A FAN of Trump, he's the lesser of the two evils.)

[taiwan_girl]

Not sure I understand the chart. What are the first two columns meaning?

[jon-nyc]

Date range of polling, and number/group. LV= likely voters

[taiwan_girl]

@jon-nyc Sorry, I was. not more clear.

"Electoral College Probability" and "Popular Vote Probability"

Is the the % that they believe their final Electoral College Votes and Popular Vote are correct?

[jon-nyc]

Respectively the probabilities his model assigns to winning/losing the electoral college and popular votes. NOT a prediction of the vote outcome (those are later columns)

[89th]

Oh man, this is shaping to be one heck of a fun November. Wow I just realized I'll be at Disney World during it. LOL

In 2016... I was at Bandon Dunes (golf) in Oregon, and woke up to the news of the Trump win.

[LuFins Dad]

The betting markets shifted back to Trump, yesterday.

[Copper]

@LuFins-Dad said in It’s starting:

The betting markets shifted back to Trump, yesterday.

Please ask him to keep his mouth shut.

Not one word.

[jon-nyc]

It’s the Crank Realignment RFK Jr endorsement.

Let’s remember RFK was at 20% some months ago and 2% last week. By Election Day he should be a 6pt drag.

[LuFins Dad]

@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

It’s the Crank Realignment RFK Jr endorsement.

Let’s remember RFK was at 20% some months ago and 2% last week. By Election Day he should be a 6pt drag.

Your girl has already peaked, Jon. You know it.

[Mik]

https://babylonbee.com/news/democrats-consider-replacing-kamala-harris-with-more-coherent-joe-biden?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR0SoU0RTh42IMUbffbO2xoRSejDznbHiK0Fa9Z94CkbmRZdcRV0QIxHP3g_aem_okC_d9yqg0HFbjlAVSaTGg

[George K]

"More Coherent Joe Biden"

That's one damn long list...

[Jolly]

Who knows?

After her one interview, Kamala-lama-ding-dong may not do another. If she can keep the electorate from figuring out how goofy she is and the MSM keeps up the coronation music, all she has to do is survive the debate.

By that time, early voting starts and the Big Blue Machine kicks in. Throw in a jail sentence by Bragg's Boy and who knows what can happen?

[LuFins Dad]

Silver’s pissing a lot of people off…

[Jolly]

That surprises me.

[bachophile]

Another silver polll, just sayin….

[LuFins Dad]

@bachophile said in It’s starting:

Another silver polll, just sayin….

Not a poll, a model based on all the polls and statistical data. And that model and statistician was the only one that gave Trump anything over 5%, Silver was the lone voice that started going on TV and warning that the pundits were wrong, and that Trump was starting to gain momentum and posed a significant chance of winning. He got laughed at and insulted by The NY Times and WaPo.

That model you point to doesn’t diminish my point or confidence, but actually reinforces it.

https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2017/03/nate-silver-says-conventional-wisdom-not-data-killed-2016-election-forecasts/

[LuFins Dad]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/09/27/your-critique-that-fivethirtyeight-misfired-on-the-2016-race-is-wrong/

[Doctor Phibes]

I think the heavy interest with opinion polls is quite interesting psychologically. What does it matter who is "winning" in a two-party system where there is no real justification for tactical voting? Do people really change their preferred candidate based on the fact that they don't want to be on the losing team?

[LuFins Dad]

@Doctor-Phibes said in It’s starting:

I think the heavy interest with opinion polls is quite interesting psychologically. What does it matter who is "winning" in a two-party system where there is no real justification for tactical voting? Do people really change their preferred candidate based on the fact that they don't want to be on the losing team?

No, but they change their donation intentions… If it’s a close race, donors might go a little higher. If it’s trending downwards, they might either substantially increase or substantially decrease their donations.