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The New Coffee Room

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  3. Invasion of Taiwan?

Invasion of Taiwan?

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  • HoraceH Offline
    HoraceH Offline
    Horace
    wrote on last edited by
    #8

    BREAKING: Source says China will invade Taiwan in early June.

    That's my favorite sort of prediction. One that will be proven true or false in short order. I am guessing this one will be proven false, but I don't really have any idea.

    Education is extremely important.

    1 Reply Last reply
    • George KG Offline
      George KG Offline
      George K
      wrote on last edited by
      #9

      I've read that TSMC has a "kill switch" on their production lines should this break out.

      https://www.businessinsider.com/asml-tsmc-semiconductor-chip-equipment-kill-switch-china-invade-taiwan-2024-5?op=1

      "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

      The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

      taiwan_girlT 1 Reply Last reply
      • George KG George K

        I've read that TSMC has a "kill switch" on their production lines should this break out.

        https://www.businessinsider.com/asml-tsmc-semiconductor-chip-equipment-kill-switch-china-invade-taiwan-2024-5?op=1

        taiwan_girlT Offline
        taiwan_girlT Offline
        taiwan_girl
        wrote on last edited by
        #10

        @George-K said in Invasion of Taiwan?:

        I've read that TSMC has a "kill switch" on their production lines should this break out.

        https://www.businessinsider.com/asml-tsmc-semiconductor-chip-equipment-kill-switch-china-invade-taiwan-2024-5?op=1

        Yes, interesting. I heard that from Taiwan sources also. Although there are of course other reasons, but one reason TSMC is looking to build their mega factory in AZ in the US because of wanting to diversify from production only in Taiwan because of Chinese invasion fears.

        1 Reply Last reply
        • taiwan_girlT taiwan_girl

          I think the Chinese "underestimate" the difficulty of invading and maybe more important, holding Taiwan. Yes, for sure from a military standpoint, they could do a lot of damage.

          1. But, like in a video game, defending your homeland is worth XX% boost in power and defense capabilities. I know that Vietnam, Afgahistan, etc. are apples vs oranges when comparing to Taiwan, but I think that China would experience the same thing.

          2. Kind of like Russia, I think that popular opinion in the country would decrease quickly once their son is coming home injured or dead. With most families now having only one son, the loss of this child basically stops the family bloodline.

            Lots of people in Taiwan have ties to mainland China, but the reverse is not true. Fighting for something that is not a passion decreases the effectiveness of the fighting. Yes, the propaganda department in mainland China is trying to rally people for this, but for most people, I dont believe that it is a big issue

          3. Taiwan is not an easy country to fight in. Like Korea, it is very much covered with mountains. The western 1/3 is pretty flat, but the rest is very mountains. "Guerilla" war would continue.

          4. China is having economic problems. A war with Taiwan would "temporarily" take attention from these problems, but the fallout from an invasion would only increase the economic problems. Companies are already looking for alternative places for manufacturing, and this would only increase that happening. While I do not think that the US would get directly involved, I think there would be a significant amount of support.

          JollyJ Offline
          JollyJ Offline
          Jolly
          wrote on last edited by
          #11

          @taiwan_girl said in Invasion of Taiwan?:

          I think the Chinese "underestimate" the difficulty of invading and maybe more important, holding Taiwan. Yes, for sure from a military standpoint, they could do a lot of damage.

          1. But, like in a video game, defending your homeland is worth XX% boost in power and defense capabilities. I know that Vietnam, Afgahistan, etc. are apples vs oranges when comparing to Taiwan, but I think that China would experience the same thing.

          2. Kind of like Russia, I think that popular opinion in the country would decrease quickly once their son is coming home injured or dead. With most families now having only one son, the loss of this child basically stops the family bloodline.

            Lots of people in Taiwan have ties to mainland China, but the reverse is not true. Fighting for something that is not a passion decreases the effectiveness of the fighting. Yes, the propaganda department in mainland China is trying to rally people for this, but for most people, I dont believe that it is a big issue

          3. Taiwan is not an easy country to fight in. Like Korea, it is very much covered with mountains. The western 1/3 is pretty flat, but the rest is very mountains. "Guerilla" war would continue.

          4. China is having economic problems. A war with Taiwan would "temporarily" take attention from these problems, but the fallout from an invasion would only increase the economic problems. Companies are already looking for alternative places for manufacturing, and this would only increase that happening. While I do not think that the US would get directly involved, I think there would be a significant amount of support.

          The Chinese don't give a fig about war atrocities or world opinion once the invasion starts. They will pacify Taiwan by whatever means necessary, including mass executions, hostages, starvation, etc.

          These guys are going to be in it to win it, and simply will do what it takes.

          “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

          Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

          CopperC 1 Reply Last reply
          • X Offline
            X Offline
            xenon
            wrote on last edited by
            #12

            It’s an interesting way to commit economic suicide.

            Maybe I’m naive, but the decoupling would kick into hyperdrive.

            1 Reply Last reply
            • Doctor PhibesD Offline
              Doctor PhibesD Offline
              Doctor Phibes
              wrote on last edited by
              #13

              It seems to me that China can't survive without global trade, and that both the US and EU would cease doing business with them. That would be a massive hit.

              I was only joking

              X 1 Reply Last reply
              • taiwan_girlT Offline
                taiwan_girlT Offline
                taiwan_girl
                wrote on last edited by
                #14

                @xenon @Doctor-Phibes Agree. In an invasion, I think that there would soon be a internal (inside China) uprising against the invasion.

                JollyJ 1 Reply Last reply
                • Doctor PhibesD Doctor Phibes

                  It seems to me that China can't survive without global trade, and that both the US and EU would cease doing business with them. That would be a massive hit.

                  X Offline
                  X Offline
                  xenon
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #15

                  @Doctor-Phibes said in Invasion of Taiwan?:

                  It seems to me that China can't survive without global trade, and that both the US and EU would cease doing business with them. That would be a massive hit.

                  I honestly don't think we could afford to completely stop doing business with them in the short run... but it would trend in that direction. It'd be a calamity on all sides... and for what?

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • LuFins DadL Offline
                    LuFins DadL Offline
                    LuFins Dad
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #16

                    I agree with @taiwan_girl and @Doctor-Phibes I think they will test the resolve of Taiwan and the rest of the world, but not fully commit.

                    The Brad

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • JollyJ Jolly

                      @taiwan_girl said in Invasion of Taiwan?:

                      I think the Chinese "underestimate" the difficulty of invading and maybe more important, holding Taiwan. Yes, for sure from a military standpoint, they could do a lot of damage.

                      1. But, like in a video game, defending your homeland is worth XX% boost in power and defense capabilities. I know that Vietnam, Afgahistan, etc. are apples vs oranges when comparing to Taiwan, but I think that China would experience the same thing.

                      2. Kind of like Russia, I think that popular opinion in the country would decrease quickly once their son is coming home injured or dead. With most families now having only one son, the loss of this child basically stops the family bloodline.

                        Lots of people in Taiwan have ties to mainland China, but the reverse is not true. Fighting for something that is not a passion decreases the effectiveness of the fighting. Yes, the propaganda department in mainland China is trying to rally people for this, but for most people, I dont believe that it is a big issue

                      3. Taiwan is not an easy country to fight in. Like Korea, it is very much covered with mountains. The western 1/3 is pretty flat, but the rest is very mountains. "Guerilla" war would continue.

                      4. China is having economic problems. A war with Taiwan would "temporarily" take attention from these problems, but the fallout from an invasion would only increase the economic problems. Companies are already looking for alternative places for manufacturing, and this would only increase that happening. While I do not think that the US would get directly involved, I think there would be a significant amount of support.

                      The Chinese don't give a fig about war atrocities or world opinion once the invasion starts. They will pacify Taiwan by whatever means necessary, including mass executions, hostages, starvation, etc.

                      These guys are going to be in it to win it, and simply will do what it takes.

                      CopperC Offline
                      CopperC Offline
                      Copper
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #17

                      @Jolly said in Invasion of Taiwan?:

                      These guys are going to be in it to win it, and simply will do what it takes.

                      So when they are done, there is nothing left to protest about.

                      I'm assuming this is just a real estate deal, and they don't care about the people.

                      JollyJ 1 Reply Last reply
                      • CopperC Copper

                        @Jolly said in Invasion of Taiwan?:

                        These guys are going to be in it to win it, and simply will do what it takes.

                        So when they are done, there is nothing left to protest about.

                        I'm assuming this is just a real estate deal, and they don't care about the people.

                        JollyJ Offline
                        JollyJ Offline
                        Jolly
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #18

                        @Copper said in Invasion of Taiwan?:

                        @Jolly said in Invasion of Taiwan?:

                        These guys are going to be in it to win it, and simply will do what it takes.

                        So when they are done, there is nothing left to protest about.

                        I'm assuming this is just a real estate deal, and they don't care about the people.

                        That's the way I look at it.

                        “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                        Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • taiwan_girlT taiwan_girl

                          @xenon @Doctor-Phibes Agree. In an invasion, I think that there would soon be a internal (inside China) uprising against the invasion.

                          JollyJ Offline
                          JollyJ Offline
                          Jolly
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #19

                          @taiwan_girl said in Invasion of Taiwan?:

                          @xenon @Doctor-Phibes Agree. In an invasion, I think that there would soon be a internal (inside China) uprising against the invasion.

                          The dead don't protest.

                          It would have to be a massive uprising to succeed.

                          “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                          Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                          George KG 1 Reply Last reply
                          • JollyJ Jolly

                            @taiwan_girl said in Invasion of Taiwan?:

                            @xenon @Doctor-Phibes Agree. In an invasion, I think that there would soon be a internal (inside China) uprising against the invasion.

                            The dead don't protest.

                            It would have to be a massive uprising to succeed.

                            George KG Offline
                            George KG Offline
                            George K
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #20

                            @Jolly said in Invasion of Taiwan?:

                            It would have to be a massive uprising to succeed.

                            That hasn't worked out too well in the past, has it?

                            image.jpeg

                            "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                            The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                            JollyJ 1 Reply Last reply
                            • CopperC Offline
                              CopperC Offline
                              Copper
                              wrote on last edited by Copper
                              #21

                              Source says China will invade Taiwan in early June.

                              Because they want it to be over before Mr. Trump arrives.

                              Doctor PhibesD 1 Reply Last reply
                              • George KG George K

                                @Jolly said in Invasion of Taiwan?:

                                It would have to be a massive uprising to succeed.

                                That hasn't worked out too well in the past, has it?

                                image.jpeg

                                JollyJ Offline
                                JollyJ Offline
                                Jolly
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #22

                                @George-K said in Invasion of Taiwan?:

                                @Jolly said in Invasion of Taiwan?:

                                It would have to be a massive uprising to succeed.

                                That hasn't worked out too well in the past, has it?

                                image.jpeg

                                Dunno. Many accounts say tank man was executed. A few reports say he was able to escape to Taiwan ( I kinda doubt it).

                                Most Chinese know nothing or very little about him. Or about the protests.

                                “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                                Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                                1 Reply Last reply
                                • CopperC Copper

                                  Source says China will invade Taiwan in early June.

                                  Because they want it to be over before Mr. Trump arrives.

                                  Doctor PhibesD Offline
                                  Doctor PhibesD Offline
                                  Doctor Phibes
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #23

                                  @Copper said in Invasion of Taiwan?:

                                  Source says China will invade Taiwan in early June.

                                  Because they want it to be over before Mr. Trump arrives.

                                  This confirms my theory that almost every thread here supposedly about a foreign country is actually about American politics.

                                  Because nothing else matters.

                                  I was only joking

                                  AxtremusA CopperC 2 Replies Last reply
                                  • RenaudaR Offline
                                    RenaudaR Offline
                                    Renauda
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #24

                                    @Doctor-Phibes

                                    Could it be otherwise?

                                    No, not likely. But you knew that..

                                    Elbows up!

                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    • Doctor PhibesD Doctor Phibes

                                      @Copper said in Invasion of Taiwan?:

                                      Source says China will invade Taiwan in early June.

                                      Because they want it to be over before Mr. Trump arrives.

                                      This confirms my theory that almost every thread here supposedly about a foreign country is actually about American politics.

                                      Because nothing else matters.

                                      AxtremusA Away
                                      AxtremusA Away
                                      Axtremus
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #25

                                      @Doctor-Phibes said in Invasion of Taiwan?:

                                      This confirms my theory that almost every thread here supposedly about a foreign country is actually about American politics.

                                      Because nothing else matters.

                                      It’s the American Way.

                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      • Doctor PhibesD Doctor Phibes

                                        @Copper said in Invasion of Taiwan?:

                                        Source says China will invade Taiwan in early June.

                                        Because they want it to be over before Mr. Trump arrives.

                                        This confirms my theory that almost every thread here supposedly about a foreign country is actually about American politics.

                                        Because nothing else matters.

                                        CopperC Offline
                                        CopperC Offline
                                        Copper
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #26

                                        @Doctor-Phibes said in Invasion of Taiwan?:

                                        Because nothing else matters.

                                        What else is even close to mattering?

                                        1 Reply Last reply
                                        • taiwan_girlT Offline
                                          taiwan_girlT Offline
                                          taiwan_girl
                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #27

                                          https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/3266092/us-plans-turn-taiwan-strait-unmanned-hellscape-if-china-invades-top-admiral

                                          If mainland China invades Taiwan, it may face a large, lethal drone force meant to make its military “miserable”.

                                          At least that’s the plan, according to the top US admiral in the Pacific, who said the “Hellscape” strategy is designed to distract China and buy the United States time to respond.

                                          “I want to turn the Taiwan Strait into an unmanned hellscape using a number of classified capabilities,” Admiral Samuel Paparo, the commander of US Indo-Pacific Command, told The Washington Post at the International Institute for Strategic Studies’ Shangri-La Dialogue Summit.

                                          In doing so, he said: “I can make their lives utterly miserable for a month, which buys me the time for the rest of everything.”

                                          The plan involves launching thousands of unmanned systems, from surface vessels and submarines to aerial drones, to fight Chinese invading forces as soon as they begin to cross the Taiwan Strait, effectively acting as a kind of first line of defence.

                                          Below is a picture of a drone boat that Taiwan has developed.
                                          alt text

                                          alt text

                                          ...20-ton robot vessel that's 55-feet-long, 12-feet-wide, and with a draft of about 3 feet. "The vessel's top speed exceeds 30 knots (55.56 km/h), and it can cover a range of over 300 miles (555.6 km) with a fuel capacity of 1,300 liters,"

                                          https://www.ltn.com.tw/

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