Invasion of Taiwan?

[taiwan_girl]

Hopefully not. Taiwan has had some good luck in developing Anti-ship missiles, including a new supersonic missile (the HF-3 (Hsiung Feng III). Right now, they are launched by truck. Below is recent video of them on a truck.

Here are them shooting a ship.

Link to video

and there has been some secret work to have them being able to be shot from airships, such as the F-CK-1 Ching-Kuo fighter plane (經國號戰機). However, the missiles are quite heavy, so there have been some modifications done to the missile.

[Jolly]

Taiwan is a speed bump.

The porcupine strategy only works if the Chinese really don't want it.

[George K]

@Jolly said in Invasion of Taiwan?:

if the Chinese really don't want it

Apparently, they do.

[taiwan_girl]

I think the Chinese "underestimate" the difficulty of invading and maybe more important, holding Taiwan. Yes, for sure from a military standpoint, they could do a lot of damage.

1. But, like in a video game, defending your homeland is worth XX% boost in power and defense capabilities. I know that Vietnam, Afgahistan, etc. are apples vs oranges when comparing to Taiwan, but I think that China would experience the same thing.

2. Kind of like Russia, I think that popular opinion in the country would decrease quickly once their son is coming home injured or dead. With most families now having only one son, the loss of this child basically stops the family bloodline.

   Lots of people in Taiwan have ties to mainland China, but the reverse is not true. Fighting for something that is not a passion decreases the effectiveness of the fighting. Yes, the propaganda department in mainland China is trying to rally people for this, but for most people, I dont believe that it is a big issue

3. Taiwan is not an easy country to fight in. Like Korea, it is very much covered with mountains. The western 1/3 is pretty flat, but the rest is very mountains. "Guerilla" war would continue.

4. China is having economic problems. A war with Taiwan would "temporarily" take attention from these problems, but the fallout from an invasion would only increase the economic problems. Companies are already looking for alternative places for manufacturing, and this would only increase that happening. While I do not think that the US would get directly involved, I think there would be a significant amount of support.

[Horace]

BREAKING: Source says China will invade Taiwan in early June.

That's my favorite sort of prediction. One that will be proven true or false in short order. I am guessing this one will be proven false, but I don't really have any idea.

[George K]

I've read that TSMC has a "kill switch" on their production lines should this break out.

https://www.businessinsider.com/asml-tsmc-semiconductor-chip-equipment-kill-switch-china-invade-taiwan-2024-5?op=1

[taiwan_girl]

@George-K said in Invasion of Taiwan?:

I've read that TSMC has a "kill switch" on their production lines should this break out.

https://www.businessinsider.com/asml-tsmc-semiconductor-chip-equipment-kill-switch-china-invade-taiwan-2024-5?op=1

Yes, interesting. I heard that from Taiwan sources also. Although there are of course other reasons, but one reason TSMC is looking to build their mega factory in AZ in the US because of wanting to diversify from production only in Taiwan because of Chinese invasion fears.

[Jolly]

@taiwan_girl said in Invasion of Taiwan?:

I think the Chinese "underestimate" the difficulty of invading and maybe more important, holding Taiwan. Yes, for sure from a military standpoint, they could do a lot of damage.

1. But, like in a video game, defending your homeland is worth XX% boost in power and defense capabilities. I know that Vietnam, Afgahistan, etc. are apples vs oranges when comparing to Taiwan, but I think that China would experience the same thing.

2. Kind of like Russia, I think that popular opinion in the country would decrease quickly once their son is coming home injured or dead. With most families now having only one son, the loss of this child basically stops the family bloodline.

   Lots of people in Taiwan have ties to mainland China, but the reverse is not true. Fighting for something that is not a passion decreases the effectiveness of the fighting. Yes, the propaganda department in mainland China is trying to rally people for this, but for most people, I dont believe that it is a big issue

3. Taiwan is not an easy country to fight in. Like Korea, it is very much covered with mountains. The western 1/3 is pretty flat, but the rest is very mountains. "Guerilla" war would continue.

4. China is having economic problems. A war with Taiwan would "temporarily" take attention from these problems, but the fallout from an invasion would only increase the economic problems. Companies are already looking for alternative places for manufacturing, and this would only increase that happening. While I do not think that the US would get directly involved, I think there would be a significant amount of support.

The Chinese don't give a fig about war atrocities or world opinion once the invasion starts. They will pacify Taiwan by whatever means necessary, including mass executions, hostages, starvation, etc.

These guys are going to be in it to win it, and simply will do what it takes.

[xenon]

It’s an interesting way to commit economic suicide.

Maybe I’m naive, but the decoupling would kick into hyperdrive.

[Doctor Phibes]

It seems to me that China can't survive without global trade, and that both the US and EU would cease doing business with them. That would be a massive hit.

[taiwan_girl]

@xenon @Doctor-Phibes Agree. In an invasion, I think that there would soon be a internal (inside China) uprising against the invasion.

[xenon]

@Doctor-Phibes said in Invasion of Taiwan?:

It seems to me that China can't survive without global trade, and that both the US and EU would cease doing business with them. That would be a massive hit.

I honestly don't think we could afford to completely stop doing business with them in the short run... but it would trend in that direction. It'd be a calamity on all sides... and for what?

[LuFins Dad]

I agree with @taiwan_girl and @Doctor-Phibes I think they will test the resolve of Taiwan and the rest of the world, but not fully commit.

[Copper]

@Jolly said in Invasion of Taiwan?:

These guys are going to be in it to win it, and simply will do what it takes.

So when they are done, there is nothing left to protest about.

I'm assuming this is just a real estate deal, and they don't care about the people.

[Jolly]

@Copper said in Invasion of Taiwan?:

@Jolly said in Invasion of Taiwan?:

These guys are going to be in it to win it, and simply will do what it takes.

So when they are done, there is nothing left to protest about.

I'm assuming this is just a real estate deal, and they don't care about the people.

That's the way I look at it.

[Jolly]

@taiwan_girl said in Invasion of Taiwan?:

@xenon @Doctor-Phibes Agree. In an invasion, I think that there would soon be a internal (inside China) uprising against the invasion.

The dead don't protest.

It would have to be a massive uprising to succeed.

[George K]

@Jolly said in Invasion of Taiwan?:

It would have to be a massive uprising to succeed.

That hasn't worked out too well in the past, has it?

[Copper]

Source says China will invade Taiwan in early June.

Because they want it to be over before Mr. Trump arrives.

[Jolly]

@George-K said in Invasion of Taiwan?:

@Jolly said in Invasion of Taiwan?:

It would have to be a massive uprising to succeed.

That hasn't worked out too well in the past, has it?

Dunno. Many accounts say tank man was executed. A few reports say he was able to escape to Taiwan ( I kinda doubt it).

Most Chinese know nothing or very little about him. Or about the protests.

[Doctor Phibes]

@Copper said in Invasion of Taiwan?:

Source says China will invade Taiwan in early June.

Because they want it to be over before Mr. Trump arrives.

This confirms my theory that almost every thread here supposedly about a foreign country is actually about American politics.

Because nothing else matters.