Was the media too alarmist?
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wrote on 10 Apr 2020, 11:29 last edited by jon-nyc 4 Oct 2020, 11:30
Except this second approach she talks about was never floated in any detail.
This is the ‘just the flu’ people now pretending they were for social distancing and mask wearing all along.
Nowhere in the piece is an estimate of what R0 might be under such circumstances.
I’m sure the the author thinks we would have had all the benefit but the economy would be fine.
This is garbage.
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wrote on 10 Apr 2020, 11:49 last edited by
Seeing more of this subject appearing in more essays. The pressure to reopen is building...
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wrote on 10 Apr 2020, 11:53 last edited by
As it should be!
The dangerous part is to pretend this was all unnecessary. That will give fuel to the idea that we can just end this without an adequate test and trace program in place.
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wrote on 10 Apr 2020, 12:22 last edited by
There is a reason the curve has been flattened and that is the steps that were taken. That the models were wrong, well, they are models and they tended toward worst case, as they should.
But reopening prematurely and at too fast a pace will have grave consequences. The first thing we need to look at is reopening parts of the hospital systems so they can generate revenue from electives, etc. Social distancing needs to remain in place, especially for those most likely to have bad outcomes. Federal assistance for those people may be helpful.
We need a Manhattan Project for both effective treatments and a vaccine. Nothing else will really turn this around like that. Contact tracing and monitoring will help but until we become able to defeat the virus we will constantly be playing catchup.
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wrote on 10 Apr 2020, 12:39 last edited by
I wish these people would just STFU and listen to people with expertise for a change.
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I wish these people would just STFU and listen to people with expertise for a change.
wrote on 10 Apr 2020, 13:00 last edited by@Doctor-Phibes said in Was the media too alarmist?:
I wish these people would just STFU and listen to people with expertise for a change.
Maybe so, but the models(so far) have been seriously wrong. Therein lies the ammunition for the counter argument.
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wrote on 10 Apr 2020, 13:02 last edited by
Hindsight is 20/20. Ask Lombardy if they wish they'd have taken the steps we have earlier.
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wrote on 10 Apr 2020, 13:09 last edited by
True, but the Italian medical system is not the best in Europe.
Look, I can see it coming...No nation is so rich it can shutter most of its economy forever. As the economic pressures build, and the models trend downward, eventually people will howl to reopen the economy. People will make what they consider to be the most rational decision, and that may mean you and I, Jon, Aqua and whoever else, have become expendable,or at least possible casualties of war.
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wrote on 10 Apr 2020, 13:11 last edited by Mik 4 Oct 2020, 13:14
I will never accept that. I agree that pressure to reopen will be great, but I think it will be done gradually, as the shutdown was imposed. Schools do not need to reopen. Social distance can be maintained without lockdown orders. Workplaces will find ways to keep space between people. But we're not just going to throw the barn doors open and all back to normal.
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@Doctor-Phibes said in Was the media too alarmist?:
I wish these people would just STFU and listen to people with expertise for a change.
Maybe so, but the models(so far) have been seriously wrong. Therein lies the ammunition for the counter argument.
wrote on 10 Apr 2020, 13:16 last edited by@Jolly said in Was the media too alarmist?:
@Doctor-Phibes said in Was the media too alarmist?:
I wish these people would just STFU and listen to people with expertise for a change.
Maybe so, but the models(so far) have been seriously wrong. Therein lies the ammunition for the counter argument.
People with expertise are often wrong, however they're generally not wrong nearly as often as people without it.
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I will never accept that. I agree that pressure to reopen will be great, but I think it will be done gradually, as the shutdown was imposed. Schools do not need to reopen. Social distance can be maintained without lockdown orders. Workplaces will find ways to keep space between people. But we're not just going to throw the barn doors open and all back to normal.
wrote on 10 Apr 2020, 13:24 last edited by@Mik said in Was the media too alarmist?:
I will never accept that.
You won't, and I ain't too spiffy with it, but right now we're swimming in a sea of government money. One third of Americans will not make their rent payments. It's going to get worse, if the current levels of shutdown continue. The worst case scenario is another Great Depression, and everything that comes with it.
With massive amounts of fiat money, comes hyperinflation. In a world where most people are destitute and cannot afford food, people will rationalize anything.
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wrote on 10 Apr 2020, 13:56 last edited by
The key is going to be balancing the risk with the reward. An outcome like that of 1920 would be as unacceptable to most people as would an outcome like 1929.
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I wish these people would just STFU and listen to people with expertise for a change.
wrote on 10 Apr 2020, 15:35 last edited by -
wrote on 10 Apr 2020, 15:37 last edited by
And, yes, the media was too alarmist, by a lot
But on their behalf I'll say I suspect that was the job they were asked to do.
The people watching the media let us down.
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wrote on 10 Apr 2020, 16:42 last edited by
flu
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wrote on 10 Apr 2020, 16:45 last edited by
Still leading but not for long
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flu
wrote on 10 Apr 2020, 16:49 last edited by -
wrote on 10 Apr 2020, 17:01 last edited by
That's a great point, Donald! Especially when you consider which one of those is experiencing exponential (read: like, rilly fast) growth and the other one has been going down in cases since 1950!
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wrote on 10 Apr 2020, 17:20 last edited by
@jon-nyc said in Was the media too alarmist?:
@Aqua-Letifer said in Was the media too alarmist?:
flu
One month ago.
That is hilarious!
Imagine being concerned about only 37,000 deaths?
Crazy.
Where do we find characters like this?