Was the media too alarmist?

[Mik]

Hindsight is 20/20. Ask Lombardy if they wish they'd have taken the steps we have earlier.

[Jolly]

True, but the Italian medical system is not the best in Europe.

Look, I can see it coming...No nation is so rich it can shutter most of its economy forever. As the economic pressures build, and the models trend downward, eventually people will howl to reopen the economy. People will make what they consider to be the most rational decision, and that may mean you and I, Jon, Aqua and whoever else, have become expendable,or at least possible casualties of war.

[Mik]

I will never accept that. I agree that pressure to reopen will be great, but I think it will be done gradually, as the shutdown was imposed. Schools do not need to reopen. Social distance can be maintained without lockdown orders. Workplaces will find ways to keep space between people. But we're not just going to throw the barn doors open and all back to normal.

[Doctor Phibes]

@Jolly said in Was the media too alarmist?:

@Doctor-Phibes said in Was the media too alarmist?:

I wish these people would just STFU and listen to people with expertise for a change.

Maybe so, but the models(so far) have been seriously wrong. Therein lies the ammunition for the counter argument.

People with expertise are often wrong, however they're generally not wrong nearly as often as people without it.

[Jolly]

@Mik said in Was the media too alarmist?:

I will never accept that.

You won't, and I ain't too spiffy with it, but right now we're swimming in a sea of government money. One third of Americans will not make their rent payments. It's going to get worse, if the current levels of shutdown continue. The worst case scenario is another Great Depression, and everything that comes with it.

With massive amounts of fiat money, comes hyperinflation. In a world where most people are destitute and cannot afford food, people will rationalize anything.

[Doctor Phibes]

The key is going to be balancing the risk with the reward. An outcome like that of 1920 would be as unacceptable to most people as would an outcome like 1929.

[Copper]

@Doctor-Phibes said in Was the media too alarmist?:

listen to people with expertise

Identify them

[Copper]

And, yes, the media was too alarmist, by a lot

But on their behalf I'll say I suspect that was the job they were asked to do.

The people watching the media let us down.

[Aqua Letifer]

flu

[Copper]

Still leading but not for long

[jon-nyc]

@Aqua-Letifer said in Was the media too alarmist?:

flu

One month ago.

[Aqua Letifer]

That's a great point, Donald! Especially when you consider which one of those is experiencing exponential (read: like, rilly fast) growth and the other one has been going down in cases since 1950!

[Copper]

[Axtremus]

It’s a loaded question. Who are “the media” and what do you mean “too alarmist”?

Fox News? Yeah, Fox News is “too alarmist” on certain “voter fraud” and “undocumented immigrants” issues and is plain misinformed and misleading regarding the COVID-19 pandemic.

Is the @realDunaldTrump twitter handle part of “the media”? (Go ahead and argue that an information distribution channel that has over 75 million followers is not part of “the media”.) That too is often misinformed and misleading regarding the COVID-19 pandemic.

[Jolly]

@Aqua-Letifer said in Was the media too alarmist?:

That's a great point, Donald! Especially when you consider which one of those is experiencing exponential (read: like, rilly fast) growth and the other one has been going down in cases since 1950!

1. There wasn't a test for flu in the 1950's. A lot of diagnoses back then were made on symptoms.
2. It's true that COVID is more contagious than the flu. But you're lucky, you can work from home. A lot of people cannot do that. They're hurting financially already.

How important are you and I in the grand scheme of things?

[Jolly]

@Axtremus said in Was the media too alarmist?:

It’s a loaded question. Who are “the media” and what do you mean “too alarmist”?

Fox News? Yeah, Fox News is “too alarmist” on certain “voter fraud” and “undocumented immigrants” issues and is plain misinformed and misleading regarding the COVID-19 pandemic.

Is the @realDunaldTrump twitter handle part of “the media”? (Go ahead and argue that an information distribution channel that has over 75 million followers is not part of “the media”.) That too is often misinformed and misleading regarding the COVID-19 pandemic.

Opinion masquerading as fact, aren't you?

[Doctor Phibes]

"too alarmist" is by it's very nature an opinion.

Some conservatives went ape-shit about Ebola, and then completely downplayed Covid.

[Horace]

I read today that Sweden wasn't enforcing social distancing and wasn't closing schools. They are politely asking their populace to do what they can not to catch or spread the virus. This is apparently not resulting in anything resembling the sort of social distancing we're experiencing elsewhere.

So, my question is, will Sweden be providing some hard evidence one way or the other regarding how much enforcement was necessary? I mean, assuming they stay this course throughout the epidemic.

[LuFins Dad]

Sorry, but the IMHE models had flaws that were being pointed out weeks ago by dumbasses like me. If I can see those flaws, then the statisticians and epidemiologists could as well, and a lot more. So the fact is that they either let the flaws slide to manipulate the public opinion as well as the policy decisions or they were criminally incompetent.

I am/was all for the steps taken to this point. I believe the states should have instituted they have and some weren't strong enough. But it NEVER should have been done by presenting those numbers.

[jon-nyc]

@Horace said in Was the media too alarmist?:

I read today that Sweden wasn't enforcing social distancing and wasn't closing schools. They are politely asking their populace to do what they can not to catch or spread the virus. This is apparently not resulting in anything resembling the sort of social distancing we're experiencing elsewhere.

So, my question is, will Sweden be providing some hard evidence one way or the other regarding how much enforcement was necessary? I mean, assuming they stay this course throughout the epidemic.

My understanding is they encourage social distancing, banned large public gatherings (eg 100s) but not small ones. They’ve closed universities and high schools, but not elementary schools.

Imperial College estimates their R value to be the highest in Europe. See graphs on pp 6-8

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-Europe-estimates-and-NPI-impact-30-03-2020.pdf

It is an interesting experiment, I don’t think the public will allow it to run to conclusion, though.