2024 Election Predictions
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@Jolly said in 2024 Election Predictions:
As I wrote, it's a movement. It transcends Trump. In fact, it already has.
I disagree a bit. The movement is President Trump - without him, it will not continue I do not think.
So far, candidates that are like President Trump do not do very well in overall elections. They do well in the primaries, but not so good when exposed to a wider group of voters.
(Or course, there are exceptions, but those in in locations that would never vote for a Democrat.)
@taiwan_girl said in 2024 Election Predictions:
@Jolly said in 2024 Election Predictions:
As I wrote, it's a movement. It transcends Trump. In fact, it already has.
I disagree a bit. The movement is President Trump - without him, it will not continue I do not think.
So far, candidates that are like President Trump do not do very well in overall elections. They do well in the primaries, but not so good when exposed to a wider group of voters.
(Or course, there are exceptions, but those in in locations that would never vote for a Democrat.)
The movement began with the Tea Party, before Trump ever entered the political arena. It has changed much of the GOP and will continue to do so.
When saying that it does not do well except in the primaries, it depends upon where you are at, what media sources you imbibe and how much you ignore the movement's influence on those candidates that are elected.
I go back to Bob Michaels. Th e GOP is not the same party.
“Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”
Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton
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@Jolly :
The movement began with the Tea Party, before Trump ever entered the political arena. It has changed much of the GOP and will continue to do so.
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I can’t wait for Donald Trump to become God Emperor. There will be no mercy for those of you who have ever spoken against him.
@Horace said in 2024 Election Predictions:
I can’t wait for Donald Trump to become God Emperor.
I think he's more Harkonnen than Atreides.
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@taiwan_girl said in 2024 Election Predictions:
@Jolly said in 2024 Election Predictions:
As I wrote, it's a movement. It transcends Trump. In fact, it already has.
I disagree a bit. The movement is President Trump - without him, it will not continue I do not think.
So far, candidates that are like President Trump do not do very well in overall elections. They do well in the primaries, but not so good when exposed to a wider group of voters.
(Or course, there are exceptions, but those in in locations that would never vote for a Democrat.)
The movement began with the Tea Party, before Trump ever entered the political arena. It has changed much of the GOP and will continue to do so.
When saying that it does not do well except in the primaries, it depends upon where you are at, what media sources you imbibe and how much you ignore the movement's influence on those candidates that are elected.
I go back to Bob Michaels. Th e GOP is not the same party.
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@Jolly :
The movement began with the Tea Party, before Trump ever entered the political arena. It has changed much of the GOP and will continue to do so.
@Axtremus said in 2024 Election Predictions:
@Jolly :
The movement began with the Tea Party, before Trump ever entered the political arena. It has changed much of the GOP and will continue to do so.
For NPR, not bad. As recently evident, the Murder Turtle does not have the political power he had just a few years ago. Things change slower in the Senate than in the House. But change, they are.
The problem with Republicans, is learning how to govern. Witness the problems the Freedom Caucus has caused during the last couple of years. Democrats are very good about uniting behind legislation, even if they have to hold their noses to vote for it...Pelosi, in particular, was known to be vicious in closed door meetings and enforcing compliance.
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The "Keys to the White House" are currently favoring Vice President Kamala Harris in a hypothetical 2024 matchup against former President Trump, but a final prediction for the 2024 race is yet to be made.
Allan Lichtman, an election forecaster who has correctly predicted nearly every presidential race since 1984, developed a formula that is used to make predictions about an upcoming presidential election – and in most cases, it proves to be right.
Lichtman's "Keys to the White House" consists of 13 true or false questions that he believes establish a strong indication of who will be named the victor on the fall ballot. Each question is asked about the two dueling nominees; if "true" they are given a "key," and if "false," their competitor receives the point. Then, if one party's candidate receives six or more keys, they are the predicted winner.
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8 89th referenced this topic on
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The "Keys to the White House" are currently favoring Vice President Kamala Harris in a hypothetical 2024 matchup against former President Trump, but a final prediction for the 2024 race is yet to be made.
Allan Lichtman, an election forecaster who has correctly predicted nearly every presidential race since 1984, developed a formula that is used to make predictions about an upcoming presidential election – and in most cases, it proves to be right.
Lichtman's "Keys to the White House" consists of 13 true or false questions that he believes establish a strong indication of who will be named the victor on the fall ballot. Each question is asked about the two dueling nominees; if "true" they are given a "key," and if "false," their competitor receives the point. Then, if one party's candidate receives six or more keys, they are the predicted winner.
@taiwan_girl said in 2024 Election Predictions:
The "Keys to the White House" are currently favoring Vice President Kamala Harris in a hypothetical 2024 matchup against former President Trump, but a final prediction for the 2024 race is yet to be made.
Allan Lichtman, an election forecaster who has correctly predicted nearly every presidential race since 1984, developed a formula that is used to make predictions about an upcoming presidential election – and in most cases, it proves to be right.
Lichtman's "Keys to the White House" consists of 13 true or false questions that he believes establish a strong indication of who will be named the victor on the fall ballot. Each question is asked about the two dueling nominees; if "true" they are given a "key," and if "false," their competitor receives the point. Then, if one party's candidate receives six or more keys, they are the predicted winner.
Predicted nearly every presidential election since 1984? That would be 10. “Nearly” implies that he missed at least 1 and possibly 2. That means he’s at 90% (a solid B) or 80% (a solid C)… That’s celebrated as excellence, today?
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I’ll start, Biden 321 electoral votes, Trump 217. Biden gets 79 million votes, Trump gets 69 million.
Basically same state by state outcome as 2020 except Biden flips NC, and the overall voter turnout is lower, especially for Trump.
@89th said in 2024 Election Predictions:
I’ll start, Biden 321 electoral votes, Trump 217. Biden gets 79 million votes, Trump gets 69 million.
Basically same state by state outcome as 2020 except Biden flips NC, and the overall voter turnout is lower, especially for Trump.
Fun to read this thread again.
My prediction of 148 million votes was almost perfect, there were 147 million votes. I also almost nailed the electoral vote count. How is it possible I'm this good at predicting the future?
