NYT: The Israelis Knew

[jon-nyc]

Then, in July, just three months before the attacks, a veteran analyst with Unit 8200, Israel’s signals intelligence agency, warned that Hamas had conducted an intense, daylong training exercise that appeared similar to what was outlined in the blueprint.

But a colonel in the Gaza division brushed off her concerns, according to encrypted emails viewed by The Times.

“I utterly refute that the scenario is imaginary,” the analyst wrote in the email exchanges. The Hamas training exercise, she said, fully matched “the content of Jericho Wall.”

“It is a plan designed to start a war,” she added. “It’s not just a raid on a village.”

Officials privately concede that, had the military taken these warnings seriously and redirected significant reinforcements to the south, where Hamas attacked, Israel could have blunted the attacks or possibly even prevented them.

Instead, the Israeli military was unprepared as terrorists streamed out of the Gaza Strip. It was the deadliest day in Israel’s history.

[Mik]

Misperception results in mass casualties.

[LuFins Dad]

Next comes the accusations that the Israelis allowed this to happen to give themselves an excuse to engage.

[George K]

@jon-nyc said in NYT: The Israelis Knew:

That’s what you call bad optics.

If all this is true - even if some of it is true - it's damning.

[Jolly]

20/20 hindsight.

Link to video

For many countries, but especially Israel, there is always a possibility of an attack by a nation-state or by terrorists. They made the decision that the Hamas battleplan was too complicated and unworkable.

Israel was wrong.

Nobody - especially concerning intelligence - is right all of the time. Possibly not even right most of the time.

[89th]

Exactly. Do you know how many potential plans are out there that, if executed, would look bad in 20/20?

As always, I'd imagine the truth is somewhere in the middle. They knew the attack was possible, and probably didn't expect as much damage, but also knew an attack (if implausibly carried out) would give Israel a free pass to engage Hamas in Gaza.

[George K]

@89th said in NYT: The Israelis Knew:

. Do you know how many potential plans are out there that, if executed, would look bad in 20/20?

True.

But with all the fainting over "Bin Laden wants to attack US" being "ignored," this seems to have more specificity.

[jon-nyc]

I wonder how the news is playing inside Israel.

[George K]

Radu:

Yes, the info is publicized in Israel, but never heard about "that woman Colonel". BUT... I think the story was holywoodised beyond proportions because people are "yearning" to blame someone and to find explanations/excuses.

[Renauda]

There is always the possibility that the Israeli intelligence agencies did their job and sent the information up through the appropriate channels. Whether or not the politicians in charge acted on the intelligence they received is another matter.

The failure to act does happen and when things go very wrong the blame usually falls on the intelligence services, the target with least resistance or ability to defend itself.