NYT: The Israelis Knew
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https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/30/world/middleeast/israel-hamas-attack-intelligence.html
Israeli officials obtained Hamas’s battle plan for the Oct. 7 terrorist attack more than a year before it happened, documents, emails and interviews show. But Israeli military and intelligence officials dismissed the plan as aspirational, considering it too difficult for Hamas to carry out.
The approximately 40-page document, which the Israeli authorities code-named “Jericho Wall,” outlined, point by point, exactly the kind of devastating invasion that led to the deaths of about 1,200 people.
The translated document, which was reviewed by The New York Times, did not set a date for the attack, but described a methodical assault designed to overwhelm the fortifications around the Gaza Strip, take over Israeli cities and storm key military bases, including a division headquarters.
Hamas followed the blueprint with shocking precision. The document called for a barrage of rockets at the outset of the attack, drones to knock out the security cameras and automated machine guns along the border, and gunmen to pour into Israel en masse in paragliders, on motorcycles and on foot — all of which happened on Oct. 7.
The plan also included details about the location and size of Israeli military forces, communication hubs and other sensitive information, raising questions about how Hamas gathered its intelligence and whether there were leaks inside the Israeli security establishment.The document circulated widely among Israeli military and intelligence leaders, but experts determined that an attack of that scale and ambition was beyond Hamas’s capabilities, according to documents and officials. It is unclear whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or other top political leaders saw the document, as well.
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Then, in July, just three months before the attacks, a veteran analyst with Unit 8200, Israel’s signals intelligence agency, warned that Hamas had conducted an intense, daylong training exercise that appeared similar to what was outlined in the blueprint.
But a colonel in the Gaza division brushed off her concerns, according to encrypted emails viewed by The Times.
“I utterly refute that the scenario is imaginary,” the analyst wrote in the email exchanges. The Hamas training exercise, she said, fully matched “the content of Jericho Wall.”
“It is a plan designed to start a war,” she added. “It’s not just a raid on a village.”
Officials privately concede that, had the military taken these warnings seriously and redirected significant reinforcements to the south, where Hamas attacked, Israel could have blunted the attacks or possibly even prevented them.
Instead, the Israeli military was unprepared as terrorists streamed out of the Gaza Strip. It was the deadliest day in Israel’s history.
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Next comes the accusations that the Israelis allowed this to happen to give themselves an excuse to engage.
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20/20 hindsight.
Link to videoFor many countries, but especially Israel, there is always a possibility of an attack by a nation-state or by terrorists. They made the decision that the Hamas battleplan was too complicated and unworkable.
Israel was wrong.
Nobody - especially concerning intelligence - is right all of the time. Possibly not even right most of the time.
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Exactly. Do you know how many potential plans are out there that, if executed, would look bad in 20/20?
As always, I'd imagine the truth is somewhere in the middle. They knew the attack was possible, and probably didn't expect as much damage, but also knew an attack (if implausibly carried out) would give Israel a free pass to engage Hamas in Gaza.
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Exactly. Do you know how many potential plans are out there that, if executed, would look bad in 20/20?
As always, I'd imagine the truth is somewhere in the middle. They knew the attack was possible, and probably didn't expect as much damage, but also knew an attack (if implausibly carried out) would give Israel a free pass to engage Hamas in Gaza.
@89th said in NYT: The Israelis Knew:
. Do you know how many potential plans are out there that, if executed, would look bad in 20/20?
True.
But with all the fainting over "Bin Laden wants to attack US" being "ignored," this seems to have more specificity.
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There is always the possibility that the Israeli intelligence agencies did their job and sent the information up through the appropriate channels. Whether or not the politicians in charge acted on the intelligence they received is another matter.
The failure to act does happen and when things go very wrong the blame usually falls on the intelligence services, the target with least resistance or ability to defend itself.
