Krugman on the looming economic disaster
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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/16/opinion/coronavirus-economy-unemployment.html
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To understand the cliff we’re about to plunge over, you need to know that while America’s overall handling of Covid-19 was catastrophically bad, one piece — the economic response — was actually better than many of us expected. The CARES Act, ...In particular, the act provided vastly increased aid to workers idled by lockdowns imposed to curb the spread of the coronavirus. U.S. unemployment insurance is normally a weak protection against adversity: Many workers aren’t covered, and even those who are usually receive only a small fraction of their previous wages. But the CARES Act both expanded coverage, for example to gig workers, and sharply increased benefits, adding $600 to every recipient’s weekly check.
These enhanced benefits did double duty. They meant that there was far less misery than one might otherwise have expected from a crisis that temporarily eliminated 22 million jobs; by some measures poverty actually declined.
They also helped sustain those parts of the economy that weren’t locked down. Without those emergency benefits, laid-off workers would have been forced to slash spending across the board. This would have generated a whole second round of job loss and economic contraction, as well as creating a huge wave of missed rental payments and evictions.
So enhanced unemployment benefits have been a crucial lifeline to tens of millions of Americans. Unfortunately, all of those beneficiaries are now just a few days from being thrown overboard.
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@Horace said in Krugman on the looming economic disaster:
Krugman is to economics as bill bye is to science.
The only thing he has left to sell in life is invective. He couldn’t even predict the last 4+ years. Hey if you want partisan talking points he’s a great place to start but his crystal ball flunked.
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The economic impact of COVID is a bit like an earthquake to me.
The primary wave totally knocked the economy on its ass, and it stayed down for a few weeks (to see how bad the damage was) until it started to get back up, very much helped by quick federal action. The economy will be hit by secondary shockwaves for many years. How bad it ultimately turns out to be...who knows. How many jobs were permanently lost, the value of the dollar, inflation, etc...
The main risk I see is if a domino effect happens where people and companies can't pay off their debts. Whether its bills, or rent, or mortgage, or long term corporate debt. It's this type of 2007/2008 domino effect that really can take down a country for a while.
My gut says it won't happen here and people will just learn to live with a hobbled economy and (hopefully) universal mask wearing, until the virus goes away or a vaccine is in place.
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@89th said in Krugman on the looming economic disaster:
The economic impact of COVID is a bit like an earthquake to me.
The primary wave totally knocked the economy on its ass, and it stayed down for a few weeks (to see how bad the damage was) until it started to get back up, very much helped by quick federal action. The economy will be hit by secondary shockwaves for many years. How bad it ultimately turns out to be...who knows. How many jobs were permanently lost, the value of the dollar, inflation, etc...
The main risk I see is if a domino effect happens where people and companies can't pay off their debts. Whether its bills, or rent, or mortgage, or long term corporate debt. It's this type of 2007/2008 domino effect that really can take down a country for a while.
My gut says it won't happen here and people will just learn to live with a hobbled economy and (hopefully) universal mask wearing, until the virus goes away or a vaccine is in place.
I see it more as a breaking up of the ice. Lots of really weird shit going on out there right now and everything's shifting around.
- I've been applying to a lot of jobs in the past few months. Almost all of them (office jobs in the DC area) have no remote work policies in place. None. They've explicitly said, either in the job description itself or in my first call with the HR troll, that "this position would be expected to show up in person." And for the type of jobs these are that's absolutely insane. I think they're taking advantage of the unemployment numbers and the relative desperation of those looking for work.
- Others aren't hiring at all. Because companies can't adequately project their finances in the next few quarters, many have put the brakes on recruitment.
- ...But, there's still the work that has to be done. There always is. So what I've seen are a shitload of freelance opportunities come up. Definitely more than before. Which is a very different way to make a living, but it's independent of geography and gives people a lot more diversity in terms of where their income originates.
Whole lot of changes.
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@Aqua-Letifer said in Krugman on the looming economic disaster:
.But, there's still the work that has to be done.
One good way to waste time and energy is to bemoan that nobody knows what to do. It is true. We have never faced this peculiarly unique set of conditions and circumstances before. We need to feel our way forward, and we need to do it with dispatch.
It is imperative that the wise and informed step up and get on the bump. Congress and Trump can kiss my ass; they've proven themselves useless. Lacking any other trustworthy -- or more trustworthy -- sources, we probably should heed Fauci and the CDC.
We should enlist our wise and informed individuals at our local level -- and by that, I totally do not mean the politicians. The pols should be told to go sit in the car. The business leaders, the more ethical of the clergy, the medical people, community leaders, those who are good at organizing and getting stuff done.
We need these people to exercise tough love. We need stern gorilla faces to front gorilla hearts and minds and souls, to get out the message strongly that we are in dire crisis and we need to move our asses and shift our political blues to the curb for the time being. (Don't worry, they'll be there when this is over, amirite?) To take no shit.
That's all I got for now.
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@Aqua-Letifer said in Krugman on the looming economic disaster:
@89th said in Krugman on the looming economic disaster:
The economic impact of COVID is a bit like an earthquake to me.
The primary wave totally knocked the economy on its ass, and it stayed down for a few weeks (to see how bad the damage was) until it started to get back up, very much helped by quick federal action. The economy will be hit by secondary shockwaves for many years. How bad it ultimately turns out to be...who knows. How many jobs were permanently lost, the value of the dollar, inflation, etc...
The main risk I see is if a domino effect happens where people and companies can't pay off their debts. Whether its bills, or rent, or mortgage, or long term corporate debt. It's this type of 2007/2008 domino effect that really can take down a country for a while.
My gut says it won't happen here and people will just learn to live with a hobbled economy and (hopefully) universal mask wearing, until the virus goes away or a vaccine is in place.
I see it more as a breaking up of the ice. Lots of really weird shit going on out there right now and everything's shifting around.
- I've been applying to a lot of jobs in the past few months. Almost all of them (office jobs in the DC area) have no remote work policies in place. None. They've explicitly said, either in the job description itself or in my first call with the HR troll, that "this position would be expected to show up in person." And for the type of jobs these are that's absolutely insane. I think they're taking advantage of the unemployment numbers and the relative desperation of those looking for work.
- Others aren't hiring at all. Because companies can't adequately project their finances in the next few quarters, many have put the brakes on recruitment.
- ...But, there's still the work that has to be done. There always is. So what I've seen are a shitload of freelance opportunities come up. Definitely more than before. Which is a very different way to make a living, but it's independent of geography and gives people a lot more diversity in terms of where their income originates.
Whole lot of changes.
They'll change their tune if enough candidates tell them to stick their on site role.
My daughter has been in NC less than three weeks and already has a remote job. Plus she's doing Instacart.
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"My pronouns are FA/FO." - Mik, 2024
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@Mik said in Krugman on the looming economic disaster:
@Larry said in Krugman on the looming economic disaster:
Why should we take the word of the CDC and Fauci - both of them have been pretty much wrong at every step.
As has everyone else. They still have the best information available.
I think one of the things that Taiwan did well is we tried to take the politics out of it. When the crisis first started, the Taiwan CDC was "put in charge" to do what was needed. Some of the things that they did would probably not have been did if politicians had to make the call.
