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The New Coffee Room

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  3. In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak

In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak

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  • George KG George K

    @jon-nyc said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

    No R0 estimates there.

    Sorry, I thought you were looking for cases by state, not R0.

    L Offline
    L Offline
    Loki
    wrote on last edited by
    #21

    @George-K said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

    @jon-nyc said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

    No R0 estimates there.

    Sorry, I thought you were looking for cases by state, not R0.

    I continue to look for the native source for R(0) estimates and can’t find but they are out there by country and state and being used in many models. Check out Quartz I think their recent article might get you there.

    1 Reply Last reply
    • L Offline
      L Offline
      Loki
      wrote on last edited by
      #22

      As of April 6 the effective reproduction number for the US was 1.16 and 1.1 for NY

      On March 19 it was 2.33 and 3.76 respectively

      1 Reply Last reply
      • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

        Davis - Like I said, I’m hopefully wrong.

        I’m violating one of my own rules rules here. Experts in a topic may well be wrong, but usually not in a way that is obvious to the layman.

        But for now I will stand by this.

        LuFins DadL Offline
        LuFins DadL Offline
        LuFins Dad
        wrote on last edited by
        #23

        @jon-nyc “experts may be wrong, but usually not in a manner that’s obvious to the layman”

        But that’s exactly what happened with the IMHE Models. I’ve pointed out multiple issues for over a week, and the actual numbers have supported my case so far, and they still haven’t adjusted for properly. Here are a few:

        1. Population Density (take NYC out of the equation)

        2. Public transportation vs private cars... NY became the epicenter it did because of the trains and subway.

        3. Timing of the outbreak. We will cover this more seriously latet

        The Brad

        1 Reply Last reply
        • jon-nycJ Offline
          jon-nycJ Offline
          jon-nyc
          wrote on last edited by jon-nyc
          #24

          I want to clarify something that might not have been clear from my earlier post.

          If the effective R after social distancing measures is still greater than 1, we will see a decrease in the number of daily cases and active cases but it will only be temporary. Both new cases and active cases will decrease during the time the effective R is decreasing, but then will continue to grow indefinitely from the new, lower base.

          I've attached here a stylized example. This shows R0 = 3.5 up through time interval 12, then it decreases to 1.5 over time intervals, then stays at 1.5 indefinitely. Don't worry about the actual case count, I just started with a random number. It's the trendiness that are important. Note that both new and active cases take a dive, then begin climbing again.

          alt text

          If our lockdown measures result in an R0 > 1, this will in fact happen to us, as sure as night follows day.

          What's worse, is people will see that initial decrease and assume we're out of the woods. At that point people will begin to take lockdown less seriously, lobby hard for things to open again, etc. So the new R0 won't even stay at its 1.5 level very long before rising again.

          I think odds are high that this is going to be our situation.

          Only non-witches get due process.

          • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
          1 Reply Last reply
          • jon-nycJ Offline
            jon-nycJ Offline
            jon-nyc
            wrote on last edited by jon-nyc
            #25

            I’m officially doubling down on this.

            Not only are we not below 1 now, but we aren’t going to go there any time soon.

            In fact we’ll go the other way. People will think we beat this and start to relax.

            When we look back from, say, the end of the year, we will not see April as the month with the most cases or the most deaths.

            Only non-witches get due process.

            • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
            1 Reply Last reply
            • Aqua LetiferA Offline
              Aqua LetiferA Offline
              Aqua Letifer
              wrote on last edited by
              #26

              So what would be a good month to just drop everything and kill thousands in ritual economic sacrifice? Those Temple of Doom guys have a pretty good model if you wanna do it with flair, I guess.

              Please love yourself.

              1 Reply Last reply
              • L Offline
                L Offline
                Loki
                wrote on last edited by
                #27

                Today the effective reproductive number for the US is 1.07 and for NY it is 1.08. Today or tomorrow NY peaks. The entire country is forecasted need 1/2 of the ventilators Cuomo direly called for a week ago. That’s where we are now. Very different picture than the media had us believe not long ago.

                What period are we doubling down on?

                1 Reply Last reply
                • MikM Away
                  MikM Away
                  Mik
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #28

                  Those R rates are with the whole nation effectively shut down. And it still points to growth, not reduction. Going back to normal isn't going to help that.

                  “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                  L 1 Reply Last reply
                  • jon-nycJ Offline
                    jon-nycJ Offline
                    jon-nyc
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #29

                    1.07 doesn’t do the job, and we’re only going up from there.

                    Only non-witches get due process.

                    • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                    L 1 Reply Last reply
                    • jon-nycJ Offline
                      jon-nycJ Offline
                      jon-nyc
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #30

                      IOW, what Mik said. lol

                      Only non-witches get due process.

                      • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                        1.07 doesn’t do the job, and we’re only going up from there.

                        L Offline
                        L Offline
                        Loki
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #31

                        @jon-nyc said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                        1.07 doesn’t do the job, and we’re only going up from there.

                        Maybe but it’s been going down each day. What day does it go up again?

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • jon-nycJ Offline
                          jon-nycJ Offline
                          jon-nyc
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #32

                          I can’t tell you the exact day, but if R stays north of 1, it will as surely as night follows day. See my graph above.

                          And it won’t even stay at 1.07. Because people think that dropping means we have it beat.

                          Only non-witches get due process.

                          • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • MikM Mik

                            Those R rates are with the whole nation effectively shut down. And it still points to growth, not reduction. Going back to normal isn't going to help that.

                            L Offline
                            L Offline
                            Loki
                            wrote on last edited by Loki
                            #33

                            @Mik said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                            Those R rates are with the whole nation effectively shut down. And it still points to growth, not reduction. Going back to normal isn't going to help that.

                            You ignore active monitoring, testing everyone, antibody tests, disease surveillance, scaled contact tracing, antivirals, summer. Note I didn’t even say vaccine.

                            There is so much going on right now that just doesn’t make it into the press.

                            MikM 1 Reply Last reply
                            • Doctor PhibesD Online
                              Doctor PhibesD Online
                              Doctor Phibes
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #34

                              This thread has more laughs than a German comedy convention.

                              I was only joking

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • L Loki

                                @Mik said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                                Those R rates are with the whole nation effectively shut down. And it still points to growth, not reduction. Going back to normal isn't going to help that.

                                You ignore active monitoring, testing everyone, antibody tests, disease surveillance, scaled contact tracing, antivirals, summer. Note I didn’t even say vaccine.

                                There is so much going on right now that just doesn’t make it into the press.

                                MikM Away
                                MikM Away
                                Mik
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #35

                                @Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                                @Mik said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                                Those R rates are with the whole nation effectively shut down. And it still points to growth, not reduction. Going back to normal isn't going to help that.

                                You ignore active monitoring, testing everyone, antibody tests, disease surveillance, scaled contact tracing, antivirals, summer. Note I didn’t even say vaccine.

                                There is so much going on right now that just doesn’t make it into the press.

                                But all of those things will contribute to bringing it down below 1. None of those things exist today, and summer is merely a hope. If it does not go below 1 it will grow.

                                “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                                L 1 Reply Last reply
                                • MikM Mik

                                  @Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                                  @Mik said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                                  Those R rates are with the whole nation effectively shut down. And it still points to growth, not reduction. Going back to normal isn't going to help that.

                                  You ignore active monitoring, testing everyone, antibody tests, disease surveillance, scaled contact tracing, antivirals, summer. Note I didn’t even say vaccine.

                                  There is so much going on right now that just doesn’t make it into the press.

                                  But all of those things will contribute to bringing it down below 1. None of those things exist today, and summer is merely a hope. If it does not go below 1 it will grow.

                                  L Offline
                                  L Offline
                                  Loki
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #36

                                  @Mik said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                                  @Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                                  @Mik said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                                  Those R rates are with the whole nation effectively shut down. And it still points to growth, not reduction. Going back to normal isn't going to help that.

                                  You ignore active monitoring, testing everyone, antibody tests, disease surveillance, scaled contact tracing, antivirals, summer. Note I didn’t even say vaccine.

                                  There is so much going on right now that just doesn’t make it into the press.

                                  But all of those things will contribute to bringing it down below 1. None of those things exist today, and summer is merely a hope. If it does not go below 1 it will grow.

                                  Mik the flu is 1.3 and we didn’t shut down the planet.

                                  jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
                                  • jon-nycJ Offline
                                    jon-nycJ Offline
                                    jon-nyc
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #37

                                    So yeah, predicting that we’ll grow again after a pause contains the prediction that we’ll open up before implementing a sufficiently effective test and trace.

                                    Obviously effective antivirals or a vaccine changes everything.

                                    Only non-witches get due process.

                                    • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    • L Loki

                                      @Mik said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                                      @Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                                      @Mik said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                                      Those R rates are with the whole nation effectively shut down. And it still points to growth, not reduction. Going back to normal isn't going to help that.

                                      You ignore active monitoring, testing everyone, antibody tests, disease surveillance, scaled contact tracing, antivirals, summer. Note I didn’t even say vaccine.

                                      There is so much going on right now that just doesn’t make it into the press.

                                      But all of those things will contribute to bringing it down below 1. None of those things exist today, and summer is merely a hope. If it does not go below 1 it will grow.

                                      Mik the flu is 1.3 and we didn’t shut down the planet.

                                      jon-nycJ Offline
                                      jon-nycJ Offline
                                      jon-nyc
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #38

                                      @Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                                      Mik the flu is 1.3 and we didn’t shut down the planet.

                                      You’re forgetting that we got to 1.something by shutting down the planet in the first place. Now we’re discussing opening it back up.

                                      Only non-witches get due process.

                                      • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      • MikM Away
                                        MikM Away
                                        Mik
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #39

                                        Also we know that the flu comes and goes seasonally. We do not know this about C19. Colds, another corona virus, are with us all year.

                                        “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                                        1 Reply Last reply
                                        • jon-nycJ Offline
                                          jon-nycJ Offline
                                          jon-nyc
                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #40

                                          Loki - there exists a scenario where we lock down and stay locked down enough to get to a minuscule number of new cases, meanwhile building a test and trace capability the is comprehensive enough to keep new outbreaks at bay. IOW, the hammer and the dance.

                                          I don’t think the mood of the country is in the right place to implement that.

                                          Only non-witches get due process.

                                          • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                                          1 Reply Last reply
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