The bear case on China

[jon-nyc]

Interesting thread. Basic thesis is that China will get old before it gets rich and the demographic disaster stemming from “one child” policy will crush it economically.

Odd seeming Twitter account I know, but followed by some folks that I respect (eg Marc Andreesen, Cliff Asness, Megan McArdle)

[LuFins Dad]

More like the Cocaine Bear case on China.

That puts a frightening amount of pressure on Xi and Taiwan.

[George K]

Many predictions are appearing which suggest that China (and other countries) will lose 20-25% of their populations (or more) by the end of this century.

It will be interesting times, to be sure.

(yeah, obv reference to Chinese curse)

[Jolly]

Before WW2, China had a population of 500M.

But the nature of the country has changed tremendously. What will the new 500M China look like?

[LuFins Dad]

@Jolly said in The bear case on China:

Before WW2, China had a population of 500M.

But the nature of the country has changed tremendously. What will the new 500M China look like?

Like they were alive during WWII…

[Mik]

I really don't know how the population (read labor force available) plays into supporting the country. I'm pretty sure their agriculture, at least in the country, is not as labor efficient as ours. I also wonder how much of it has been devoted to manufacturing that doesn't feed anyone.

[89th]

There was a thread a few months ago that had a video about China's imminent economic collapse, and then another thread (below) related... but the damn video is no longer available, wish I could find it.

https://nodebb.the-new-coffee-room.club/topic/18011/sam-harris-the-end-of-the-global-order

[89th]

Found something similar:

Link to video