The May 9th Victory Parade
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Excerpts from CNN:
"Whatever happens on the battlefield, the Russian President is likely to declare victory during that event three weeks from now.
"May 9 is when Russia marks one of its most important national holidays, Victory Day -- the anniversary of Germany's surrender at the end of World War II. The Kremlin has used that anniversary for more than 70 years to commemorate the successful heroism against the Nazis but, just as importantly, to proclaim to the Russian people and to the country's friends and foes alike that Moscow's leaders rule over a great and mighty power.
"Victory Day is all about military muscle, and when it comes in the middle of a war . . . there's almost no alternative but to use the occasion to boast of victory.
"US intelligence assessments, Russian foreign policy analysts and common sense all indicate that Putin will use May 9 as a sort of self-imposed deadline in Ukraine. It's not a deadline to win the war -- that will likely not happen by then -- but to pretend Russia has won something. Something major. Something important."
More (though probably not much for those following this story): https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/18/opinions/vladimir-putin-may-9-deadline-ghitis/index.html
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Excerpts from CNN:
"Whatever happens on the battlefield, the Russian President is likely to declare victory during that event three weeks from now.
"May 9 is when Russia marks one of its most important national holidays, Victory Day -- the anniversary of Germany's surrender at the end of World War II. The Kremlin has used that anniversary for more than 70 years to commemorate the successful heroism against the Nazis but, just as importantly, to proclaim to the Russian people and to the country's friends and foes alike that Moscow's leaders rule over a great and mighty power.
"Victory Day is all about military muscle, and when it comes in the middle of a war . . . there's almost no alternative but to use the occasion to boast of victory.
"US intelligence assessments, Russian foreign policy analysts and common sense all indicate that Putin will use May 9 as a sort of self-imposed deadline in Ukraine. It's not a deadline to win the war -- that will likely not happen by then -- but to pretend Russia has won something. Something major. Something important."
More (though probably not much for those following this story): https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/18/opinions/vladimir-putin-may-9-deadline-ghitis/index.html
No holiday in Russia is like 9 May. Even in Soviet times it surpassed any other event in terms of genuine celebration and national pride. Made sense too, because it was the only holiday and celebration that related good news to ordinary folks. All staged military pomp and chest pounding aside, it was truly a family & friends holiday, feast and joyful mass bender for everyone.
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Sorry for the length, but this looks like an interesting summary in answer to the question: Has Putin made the biggest mistake of his life by invading Ukraine?
By John Dewar Gleissner, Most Viewed Writer on Topic of Soviet Union (Quora)
Yes. Putin may have invaded solely to keep his job as dictator … and/or obtain oil, gas, coal, and water resources …. because he feared NATO… and/or because he is off in the head … and/or through a massive miscalculation as to military and economic factors.
His biggest mistake is demonstrated by the following:
Putin made the classic short war assumption, and the fighting is much tougher than he thought and creating more casualties.
Anti-tank missiles are knocking out many Russian tanks and armored personnel carriers. The column of vehicles headed south to Kyiv was stalled and subjected to attack.Green troops were used and they are not holding up to the combat, lack of supplies, and disorganization. The Russian army is simply not that great, contrary to earlier representations.
Russia hesitates to enter cities because urban warfare favors the defenders.
The Russians did not account for the full effects of sanctions, including ruin to their currency, banks, credit, investments, interest rates, inflation, and the stock market. Companies are pulling out of Russia, shutting down their Russian operations, and investments in Russia will come to an end.
Putin is silencing dissent, but more Russians are speaking out against this war. Even though Putin is a dictator, the Russian people will figure out how to make their voices heard.
Morale is 3 times more important than material in warfare, according to a famous and brilliant general.Putin did not figure on the entire Free World uniting against him or on NATO becoming stronger, larger, and more united.
Ukraine is a huge country, and Putin does not have the troops to occupy all of it. As Russian troops disperse through Ukraine, they become more isolated and present targets.Russia and Putin will never be able to subdue and control Ukraine or Ukrainians.
Putin’s propaganda was unbelievable.
Putin put his intelligence chief under house arrest, an obvious case of scapegoating for the debacle in Ukraine. A number of his generals have been relieved or fired.
Putin has shut down the independent press in Russia, and that is a sign of a nation under siege and a worried leader.
Decades of relationship-building, diplomatic, financial, investment, and trade ties with the West were destroyed in two weeks.
Russia’s Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu has no real military training or experience and has never been in the army except as a “politico.” It looks like Putin chose him because Putin did not want a clique of generals having too much power. Putin’s generals could not like being led by a rookie political general.
Putin is an evil man with evil intent. We appeased him for too long.
Ukraine sunk the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, the Moskva, which was longer than two American football fields end-to-end. The Moskva’s triple layer of defenses were distracted by a Turkish-made drone when two Neptune missiles struck the warship. The Turkish-made drone by itself is making Putin’s life miserable if Putin cares what happens to his military.
The Russian economy will collapse some 10% this year, which is a huge drop in well-being for the average Russian. Russians will figure out that Putin caused their problems, even though Putin blocks the free exchange of information. Once identified as the monster he truly is, some Russian patriot will figure out a way to assist Russia.
If even some portion of these points are accurate, it seems like the answer to the question is indisputably yes. But if so, how did Putin and/or his advisors make so many miscalculations?
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Maybe that's a request rather than a claim.
When Goering asked Adolf Galland if there was anything he could do to help, Galland reportedly asked for a squadron of Spitfires.
