The Ukraine war thread
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We haven't even touched on motivation and morale. I'm thinking if these guys were suitable and supportive of Putin's war, they might well have already enlisted. And they didn't. You're going to have a whole army that doesn't want to be there and doesn't think they should be.
Planning to fail is a rare occurrence, but that is what we are seeing.
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I guess Putin still thinks he can just grind the Ukranians down through sheer numbers and hope for an eventual slackening of support from the West for Ukraine.
OTOH, Russia is being bled men and materials, both of which may be impossible to replace.
Wonder when the internal political tipping point will be reached?
Always remember, Operation Valkyrie was an act of sedition.
Warning: I post things that interest me. Read and comment at your own discretion. -
From the Institute for the Study of War's Sept 24 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment:
"Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s declarations about which categories of Russian males will be exempted from partial mobilization may not reflect Russian President Vladimir Putin’s intentions or orders. A Russian media insider claimed on September 24 that officials of the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reprimanded military commissars in person for negligence in carrying out mobilization and sending out summonses in “excess,” and contrary to the explicit MoD guidance regarding exemptions for age, disability, or other limiting factors. Another Russian source claimed that certain heads of federal subjects acknowledged that they have mobilized citizens who are technically ineligible.
"Responsibility for the partial mobilization appears to be divided and complex, possibly contributing to confusion, disorganization, and violations of Shoigu’s commitments regarding exemptions."
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An overlooked aspect of warfare, weapons maintenance and repair:
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Interesting article.
Wonder which systems get priority, assuming parts are available?
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BTW, there is a bit of talk about shipping the Spear (XM5) to Ukraine. Don't know the chambering, but considering logistical headaches, it would be something already fielded in-country.
Reasoning? Real-world combat tests.
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From the Institute for the Study of War:
"This campaign assessment special edition focuses on Russian military mobilization efforts. Significant inflections ISW would normally cover in its regular sections will be summarized briefly today and addressed in more detail tomorrow.
"Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to overcome fundamental structural challenges in attempting to mobilize large numbers of Russians to continue his war in Ukraine. The “partial mobilization” he ordered on September 21 will generate additional forces but inefficiently and with high domestic social and political costs. The forces generated by this “partial mobilization,” critically, are very unlikely to add substantially to the Russian military’s net combat power in 2022. Putin will have to fix basic flaws in the Russian military personnel and equipment systems if mobilization is to have any significant impact even in the longer term. His actions thus far suggest that he is far more concerned with rushing bodies to the battlefield than with addressing these fundamental flaws.
"The Russian Armed Forces have not been setting conditions for an effective large-scale mobilization since at least 2008 and have not been building the kind of reserve force needed for a snap mobilization intended to produce immediate effects on the battlefield. There are no rapid solutions to these problems."
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If Putin can keep it up, he can win a war of attrition, especially in tough economic times for the West.
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"A Russian military recruiter has been shot after a man opened fire in a mobilisation enlistment office, according to reports.
Ruslan Zinin, 25, shouted “no one is going to fight” before firing a shot gun in the enlistment office in Ust-IIimsk.
The shooting is believed to have taken place in protest against the forced mobilisation of civilian reservists for the war in Ukraine."
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"My pronouns are FA/FO." - Mik, 2024
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@Mik said in The Ukraine war thread:
How long can he continue to fight a war no one wants with an army that doesn't want to fight?
Mikhail Khodorkovsky on Vladimir Putin's historical achievement:
"Russia is most likely the first and only country in the world where people flee not because someone invaded their country, but because they invaded another country"
