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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
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  3. The Ukraine war thread

The Ukraine war thread

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  • JollyJ Jolly

    @George-K said in The Ukraine war thread:

    @Mik said in The Ukraine war thread:

    They can raise all the troops they want, but they won't be able to supply them.

    And, as I said above, they get two weeks of training.

    Fourteen days (of which they'll probably spend at least 6 dead-drunk).

    Supposedly, these are guys who have served before. One day for in-processing, clothing and weapons issue, etc., and assignment to barracks. Then, weapon re-familiarization and what little training they can do.

    They're going to be out of shape, have poor unit cohesion, slow to react and have piss-poor morale.

    RenaudaR Offline
    RenaudaR Offline
    Renauda
    wrote on last edited by
    #876

    @Jolly

    You are right. These can hardly be described as reservists by any definition other than they completed their one or two years of conscripted service sometime in the past decade or so. They probably know how to salute, parade drill and some basic small arms familiarisation. Sure the odd one might even have some very stale specialised combat arms training. Beyond that, not much.

    Elbows up!

    1 Reply Last reply
    • MikM Offline
      MikM Offline
      Mik
      wrote on last edited by
      #877

      We haven't even touched on motivation and morale. I'm thinking if these guys were suitable and supportive of Putin's war, they might well have already enlisted. And they didn't. You're going to have a whole army that doesn't want to be there and doesn't think they should be.

      Planning to fail is a rare occurrence, but that is what we are seeing.

      “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

      1 Reply Last reply
      • JollyJ Offline
        JollyJ Offline
        Jolly
        wrote on last edited by
        #878

        I guess Putin still thinks he can just grind the Ukranians down through sheer numbers and hope for an eventual slackening of support from the West for Ukraine.

        OTOH, Russia is being bled men and materials, both of which may be impossible to replace.

        Wonder when the internal political tipping point will be reached?

        “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

        Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

        RenaudaR 1 Reply Last reply
        • JollyJ Jolly

          I guess Putin still thinks he can just grind the Ukranians down through sheer numbers and hope for an eventual slackening of support from the West for Ukraine.

          OTOH, Russia is being bled men and materials, both of which may be impossible to replace.

          Wonder when the internal political tipping point will be reached?

          RenaudaR Offline
          RenaudaR Offline
          Renauda
          wrote on last edited by
          #879

          @Jolly

          When the troops begin voting with their feet as they did in 1917.

          Elbows up!

          1 Reply Last reply
          • George KG Offline
            George KG Offline
            George K
            wrote on last edited by
            #880

            More mobilization and joy.

            "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

            The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

            1 Reply Last reply
            • Catseye3C Catseye3

              From the Institute for the Study of War's Sept 23 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment:

              "The Russian mobilization system is struggling to execute the task Russian President Vladimir Putin set and will likely fail to produce mobilized reserve forces even of the low quality that Putin’s plans would have generated, unless the Kremlin can rapidly fix fundamental and systemic problems.

              "Putin and Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu announced that the Russian Armed Forces would mobilize combat-ready reservists to quickly stabilize the frontlines and regain the initiative on the battlefield. Milblogger and social media reports, however, show that Russian military recruitment centers, enlistment officials, and local administrations are mobilizing men who do not meet the Kremlin’s stated criteria, especially Shoigu’s promise that mobilization would prioritize men with “combat experience.” Russian opposition outlets and Telegram channels leaked information suggesting that the Kremlin aims to complete this partial mobilization by November 10 and that the Kremlin is seeking to mobilize 1.2 million men instead of the publicly announced 300,000.

              "ISW cannot verify these reports, but significant available information suggests that this mobilization campaign (the first in post-Soviet Russia) is overwhelming an ineffective and unmotivated bureaucratic system and could fail to generate the much-needed combat-ready reserve force in a short time or at all."

              Catseye3C Offline
              Catseye3C Offline
              Catseye3
              wrote on last edited by
              #881

              From the Institute for the Study of War's Sept 24 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment:

              "Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s declarations about which categories of Russian males will be exempted from partial mobilization may not reflect Russian President Vladimir Putin’s intentions or orders. A Russian media insider claimed on September 24 that officials of the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reprimanded military commissars in person for negligence in carrying out mobilization and sending out summonses in “excess,” and contrary to the explicit MoD guidance regarding exemptions for age, disability, or other limiting factors. Another Russian source claimed that certain heads of federal subjects acknowledged that they have mobilized citizens who are technically ineligible.

              "Responsibility for the partial mobilization appears to be divided and complex, possibly contributing to confusion, disorganization, and violations of Shoigu’s commitments regarding exemptions."

              Success is measured by your discipline and inner peace. – Mike Ditka

              Catseye3C 2 Replies Last reply
              • RenaudaR Offline
                RenaudaR Offline
                Renauda
                wrote on last edited by
                #882

                An overlooked aspect of warfare, weapons maintenance and repair:

                https://m.dw.com/en/ukraine-war-how-to-repair-the-ukrainian-armys-modern-weapons/a-63215373?maca=en-EMail-sharing

                Elbows up!

                1 Reply Last reply
                • JollyJ Offline
                  JollyJ Offline
                  Jolly
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #883

                  Interesting article.

                  Wonder which systems get priority, assuming parts are available?

                  “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                  Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • JollyJ Offline
                    JollyJ Offline
                    Jolly
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #884

                    BTW, there is a bit of talk about shipping the Spear (XM5) to Ukraine. Don't know the chambering, but considering logistical headaches, it would be something already fielded in-country.

                    Reasoning? Real-world combat tests.

                    “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                    Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • Catseye3C Catseye3

                      From the Institute for the Study of War's Sept 24 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment:

                      "Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s declarations about which categories of Russian males will be exempted from partial mobilization may not reflect Russian President Vladimir Putin’s intentions or orders. A Russian media insider claimed on September 24 that officials of the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reprimanded military commissars in person for negligence in carrying out mobilization and sending out summonses in “excess,” and contrary to the explicit MoD guidance regarding exemptions for age, disability, or other limiting factors. Another Russian source claimed that certain heads of federal subjects acknowledged that they have mobilized citizens who are technically ineligible.

                      "Responsibility for the partial mobilization appears to be divided and complex, possibly contributing to confusion, disorganization, and violations of Shoigu’s commitments regarding exemptions."

                      Catseye3C Offline
                      Catseye3C Offline
                      Catseye3
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #885

                      From the Institute for the Study of War:

                      "This campaign assessment special edition focuses on Russian military mobilization efforts. Significant inflections ISW would normally cover in its regular sections will be summarized briefly today and addressed in more detail tomorrow.

                      "Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to overcome fundamental structural challenges in attempting to mobilize large numbers of Russians to continue his war in Ukraine. The “partial mobilization” he ordered on September 21 will generate additional forces but inefficiently and with high domestic social and political costs. The forces generated by this “partial mobilization,” critically, are very unlikely to add substantially to the Russian military’s net combat power in 2022. Putin will have to fix basic flaws in the Russian military personnel and equipment systems if mobilization is to have any significant impact even in the longer term. His actions thus far suggest that he is far more concerned with rushing bodies to the battlefield than with addressing these fundamental flaws.

                      "The Russian Armed Forces have not been setting conditions for an effective large-scale mobilization since at least 2008 and have not been building the kind of reserve force needed for a snap mobilization intended to produce immediate effects on the battlefield. There are no rapid solutions to these problems."

                      Success is measured by your discipline and inner peace. – Mike Ditka

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • JollyJ Offline
                        JollyJ Offline
                        Jolly
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #886

                        If Putin can keep it up, he can win a war of attrition, especially in tough economic times for the West.

                        “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                        Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • taiwan_girlT Offline
                          taiwan_girlT Offline
                          taiwan_girl
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #887

                          https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/russia-army-shooting-enlistment-office-ukraine-war-putin-b1028054.html

                          "A Russian military recruiter has been shot after a man opened fire in a mobilisation enlistment office, according to reports.

                          Ruslan Zinin, 25, shouted “no one is going to fight” before firing a shot gun in the enlistment office in Ust-IIimsk.

                          The shooting is believed to have taken place in protest against the forced mobilisation of civilian reservists for the war in Ukraine."

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • MikM Offline
                            MikM Offline
                            Mik
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #888

                            https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-orthodox-church-argues-that-sacrificing-life-in-war-against-ukraine-washes-away-sins/ar-AA12eAS2?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=4674ea3073044af7b384a363774198db

                            “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                            Doctor PhibesD 1 Reply Last reply
                            • HoraceH Offline
                              HoraceH Offline
                              Horace
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #889

                              I saw a story this morning that there was a school shooting in Russia by a neo-nazi. That’s convenient.

                              Education is extremely important.

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • MikM Mik

                                https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-orthodox-church-argues-that-sacrificing-life-in-war-against-ukraine-washes-away-sins/ar-AA12eAS2?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=4674ea3073044af7b384a363774198db

                                Doctor PhibesD Offline
                                Doctor PhibesD Offline
                                Doctor Phibes
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #890

                                @Mik said in The Ukraine war thread:

                                https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-orthodox-church-argues-that-sacrificing-life-in-war-against-ukraine-washes-away-sins/ar-AA12eAS2?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=4674ea3073044af7b384a363774198db

                                Nothing is going to wash away that guy's sin.

                                I was only joking

                                1 Reply Last reply
                                • MikM Offline
                                  MikM Offline
                                  Mik
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #891

                                  That's rather what I was thinking.

                                  “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                                  1 Reply Last reply
                                  • George KG Offline
                                    George KG Offline
                                    George K
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #892

                                    "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                                    The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    • jon-nycJ Offline
                                      jon-nycJ Offline
                                      jon-nyc
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #893

                                      Only non-witches get due process.

                                      • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                                      Catseye3C 1 Reply Last reply
                                      • KlausK Offline
                                        KlausK Offline
                                        Klaus
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #894

                                        I'm glad I don't have to fight against this lady.

                                        1 Reply Last reply
                                        • MikM Offline
                                          MikM Offline
                                          Mik
                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #895

                                          How long can he continue to fight a war no one wants with an army that doesn't want to fight?

                                          “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                                          George KG 1 Reply Last reply
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