The Ukraine war thread
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Putin involved in war ‘at level of colonel or brigadier’
Vladimir Putin has become so personally involved in the Ukraine war that he is making operational and tactical decisions “at the level of a colonel or brigadier”, according to western military sources.
The Russian president is helping determine the movement of forces in the Donbas, they added, where last week the invaders suffered a bloody defeat as they tried on multiple occasions to cross a strategic river in the east of Ukraine.
The sources added that Putin is still working closely with Gen Valery Gerasimov, the commander of the Russian armed forces, in contrast to claims made by Ukraine last week that the military chief had been sidelined.
“We think Putin and Gerasimov are involved in tactical decision making at a level we would normally expect to be taken by a colonel or a brigadier,” the military source said, referring to the ongoing battle in the east of Ukraine.
Moscow’s armies have so far failed to achieve a breakthrough in the Donbas, where they have been mounting an offensive for a month that has failed several times to encircle the smaller Ukrainian forces.
No further detail to back up the statement was provided, although it was implied the assessment about Putin’s close personal involvement was based on intelligence that had been received.
Colonels in the US army and brigadiers in the British army typically command a brigade, units made up of a handful of battalions – the latter of which is equivalent to the smallest operating unit in the Russian army.
Russia’s military operates in a more top down fashion compared to western counterparts, with instructions typically sent to generals in the field. But Moscow’s faltering invasion has meant that it has been forced to send generals closer to the frontline, where up to 12 have been killed, according to the Ukrainian armed forces.
Ben Barry, a former brigadier in the British army, and a land warfare expert at the International Institute of Strategic Studies, said: “A head of government should have better things to do than make military decisions. They should be setting the political strategy rather than getting bogged down in day to day activity”.
wrote on 17 May 2022, 14:09 last edited by Renauda@George-K said in The Ukraine war thread:
If accurate, it is a sign things are not going to plan. Tsar Nicholas got himself involved at the front in WWI in a way that only hindered his generals. Stalin became personally involved following the Battle of Moscow resulting in the Rzhev meat grinder and the disaster at Kharkov. He learned his lesson after the latter and stepped back instead focussing his attentions on industrial, agriculture, transportation and infrastructure in support of the military effort.
No surprise then if Putin comes out this as Generalissimo Putin and exchanges his Saville Row business suit for a Marshal’s uniform. Bad sign.
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wrote on 17 May 2022, 14:22 last edited by
This was recently broadcast on Russian TV and shows that the Kremlin’s domestic messaging is beginning to break down and reality creep in:
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This was recently broadcast on Russian TV and shows that the Kremlin’s domestic messaging is beginning to break down and reality creep in:
wrote on 17 May 2022, 14:41 last edited by@Renauda I saw that earlier. Most interesting, no?
If you believe the numbers, Russia has lost more than 25K KIA. Assuming a 3:1 ratio of injured, captured, that's 100K soldiers taken out of action.
Even if that number is inflated twofold, that's still 50K removed from action.
I would assume that families are beginning to hear about loved ones killed, injured, or missing. Word will spread, and perhaps this account that you posted is confirmation of that.
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@Renauda I saw that earlier. Most interesting, no?
If you believe the numbers, Russia has lost more than 25K KIA. Assuming a 3:1 ratio of injured, captured, that's 100K soldiers taken out of action.
Even if that number is inflated twofold, that's still 50K removed from action.
I would assume that families are beginning to hear about loved ones killed, injured, or missing. Word will spread, and perhaps this account that you posted is confirmation of that.
wrote on 17 May 2022, 16:26 last edited by RenaudaPossibly although Russian officials and media are today hailing the evacuation of Avtozaval
Steel works as a resounding victory on a par with Stalingrad. As well, countries supporting Ukraine are no longer being deemed as unfriendly. Instead they are now named as “hostile”. -
Possibly although Russian officials and media are today hailing the evacuation of Avtozaval
Steel works as a resounding victory on a par with Stalingrad. As well, countries supporting Ukraine are no longer being deemed as unfriendly. Instead they are now named as “hostile”.wrote on 17 May 2022, 16:29 last edited by@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
As well, countries supporting Ukraine are no longer being deemed as unfriendly. Instead they are now considered “hostile”.
In diplomat-world, is that a serious escalation of rhetoric?
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@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
As well, countries supporting Ukraine are no longer being deemed as unfriendly. Instead they are now considered “hostile”.
In diplomat-world, is that a serious escalation of rhetoric?
wrote on 17 May 2022, 16:37 last edited by RenaudaCertainly more weighted and accusative for domestic consumption.
In diplomacy though par for the course in terms of the propensity towards hyperbole from the Kremlin. Ominously, though we may just be seeing the end of the beginning of this war in Europe.
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wrote on 22 May 2022, 00:56 last edited by Renauda
Russia smuggling its own weapons from Iraq:
Edit: I now see that this article was from 12 April. Old hat but the first I heard of it was today.
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wrote on 22 May 2022, 12:48 last edited by
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wrote on 22 May 2022, 12:51 last edited by
Interesting piece on the changing face of warfare.
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wrote on 24 May 2022, 14:11 last edited by
@Renauda do you have a sense, from your friends, etc, who are in the thick of the conflict, of how things are going?
Recent reports seem to indicate that Russia is making progress in the East, albeit slow. British MoD agrees with this, but they also say that as the continue to move Westward supplies will be constrained, and the move will be costly.
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@Renauda do you have a sense, from your friends, etc, who are in the thick of the conflict, of how things are going?
Recent reports seem to indicate that Russia is making progress in the East, albeit slow. British MoD agrees with this, but they also say that as the continue to move Westward supplies will be constrained, and the move will be costly.
wrote on 24 May 2022, 17:52 last edited byProbably not as well as media reports suggest. The weight of numbers on the Russian side is beginning to tell in the Donbas. Ukrainian losses are, as Zelenskyi stated yesterday, taking their toll. Ukrainian morale however remains high.
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wrote on 25 May 2022, 14:17 last edited by
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wrote on 25 May 2022, 14:22 last edited by
@Renauda one of the things that's been a hallmark of this strategy is the poor supply line logistics of the Russians. It doomed them in their attempted blitzkrieg attack on Kiev.
Looks like the Ukrainians are picking up that strategy in the east.
Hope it continues to work.
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wrote on 25 May 2022, 21:34 last edited by
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wrote on 25 May 2022, 23:03 last edited by
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wrote on 25 May 2022, 23:21 last edited by
I take that as a good thing.
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wrote on 25 May 2022, 23:31 last edited by
@George-K said in The Ukraine war thread:
What's the politics behind this?
Why doesn’t Germany just say “how cute, you have an opinion”
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@George-K said in The Ukraine war thread:
What's the politics behind this?
Why doesn’t Germany just say “how cute, you have an opinion”
wrote on 25 May 2022, 23:38 last edited by George K@jon-nyc said in The Ukraine war thread:
Why doesn’t Germany just say “how cute, you have an opinion”
In the thread, there are comments saying that the contracts under which Germany acquired the weapons have restrictions as to how they can, and IF they can, sell/give to 3rd parties.
And, because I'm a Twitter n00b, I can't find it.
Wait...
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wrote on 26 May 2022, 14:16 last edited by
Supposedly Turkey has backed off of its opposition to Sweden's NATO membership.