The Ukraine war thread

[George K]

Russia’s long shot in the Donbas

On the other hand, it’s difficult to believe in the success of the larger plan to surround the Ukrainian grouping in Donbas, even with full deployment of available reserves. The frontline that stretches from Staryi Saltiv near Kharkiv to Kamianske near Zaporizhzhia is close to 600 kilometers (approximately 400 miles) in length. If the Russian forces succeed in surrounding the Ukrainian fighters (and they would have to advance by about 120 kilometers, or roughly 75 miles, in order to accomplish this), the two encirclement fronts — the internal and the external one — would add more than 200 kilometers, or over 125 miles, to the frontline’s total length.

According to the theory taught in Russian military schools, a motorized infantry battalion’s offensive strip should not comprise more than two kilometers, or just over a mile (assuming that there is direct contact with neighbors on the flanks). It follows that an operation on the scale just discussed would require at least 400 such battalions. Meanwhile, each Russian battalion tactical group (the battalion with its support units: communications, electronics, and artillery) consists of 700–900 servicemen. In other words, a successful offensive in the Donbas alone would require at least 300,000 Russian soldiers.

Meanwhile, experts estimate that no more than 70–80 battalion tactical groups — that is, no more than 60,000 Russian servicemen — are operational in all of Ukraine. In early March, the overall grouping numbered no more than 100,000 combatants, albeit without considering the additional forces of the LNR, DNR, and Russia’s National Guard.

[George K]

Not sure if he's right, but he's not the only one saying this.

Another thread on how badly things are going for the Russians.

[Jolly]

We've also heard the Russian soldiers have been cannibalizing all kinds of electronics, trying to find spare parts for their breaking equipment...

[George K]

A fascinating thread on the botched river crossing by the Russians. Lots of theory on securing the location, obscuring what you're doing, etc.

How it worked out for the Russians:

A more in depth analysis of what went wrong here.

[George K]

Fake News?

[Renauda]

[Aqua Letifer]

@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:

@George-K

I don’t think it’s fake news but it is not call up to arms. Rather, it is call for women with specified civilian qualifications and experience to step forward for the DPR defence force. They are looking for bookkeepers, controllers, drivers, janitors, bus drivers, nurses and cooks.

For now. My bet is Russia's military will grow as the propaganda machine wins over more Russians.

[Renauda]

@Aqua-Letifer

I would argue that the propaganda machine already reached its peak and as time goes on its effectiveness will diminish. A declared “Russian victory” or at least “mission accomplished” will be the only way for the Kremlin to end the erosion.

[Mik]

I'd agree with that. Disillusionment is already spreading from what I read (and I'm quite sure we're helping that along). Short of nukes there doesn't seem to be any arrows left in his quiver, and I doubt he is mad enough to use them. I suspect if he were it would already have been done.

[Aqua Letifer]

@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:

@Aqua-Letifer

I would argue that the propaganda machine already reached its peak and as time goes on its effectiveness will diminish. A declared “Russian victory” or at least “mission accomplished” will be the only way for the Kremlin to end the erosion.

I'd very much enjoy being proven wrong.

[George K]

GroPos

[George K]

"Russia has now likely suffered losses of one third of the ground combat force it committed in February."

[Jolly]

Two predictions:

1. In the near future, Russia will declare victory and cease combat operations.
2. It's not going to be pleasant for any Russian supporters left within the borders if Ukraine, democracy be damned.

[George K]

[George K]

You keep using that word 'goal.' It does not mean what you think it means...

[Klaus]

To me it sounds like the preparation for a subsequent "We have eliminated the Nazi threat, hence we are done and can go home" statement to cover up the defeat.

[George K]

@Klaus yup.

Just like the "we NEVER intended to take Kyiv. Our real goal was the liberation of the East."

[Renauda]

I agree with both of you. Seems to me also that he is saying that what remains of Ukraine can go ahead and remain a militarised and nazified puppet of the USA. All this was the USA’s fault anyway.

Cold War rules, baby: Brezhnev Doctrine Revisited.

[George K]

"Are you a patriot?"

[George K]

Putin involved in war ‘at level of colonel or brigadier’

Vladimir Putin has become so personally involved in the Ukraine war that he is making operational and tactical decisions “at the level of a colonel or brigadier”, according to western military sources.

The Russian president is helping determine the movement of forces in the Donbas, they added, where last week the invaders suffered a bloody defeat as they tried on multiple occasions to cross a strategic river in the east of Ukraine.

The sources added that Putin is still working closely with Gen Valery Gerasimov, the commander of the Russian armed forces, in contrast to claims made by Ukraine last week that the military chief had been sidelined.

“We think Putin and Gerasimov are involved in tactical decision making at a level we would normally expect to be taken by a colonel or a brigadier,” the military source said, referring to the ongoing battle in the east of Ukraine.

Moscow’s armies have so far failed to achieve a breakthrough in the Donbas, where they have been mounting an offensive for a month that has failed several times to encircle the smaller Ukrainian forces.

No further detail to back up the statement was provided, although it was implied the assessment about Putin’s close personal involvement was based on intelligence that had been received.

Colonels in the US army and brigadiers in the British army typically command a brigade, units made up of a handful of battalions – the latter of which is equivalent to the smallest operating unit in the Russian army.

Russia’s military operates in a more top down fashion compared to western counterparts, with instructions typically sent to generals in the field. But Moscow’s faltering invasion has meant that it has been forced to send generals closer to the frontline, where up to 12 have been killed, according to the Ukrainian armed forces.

Ben Barry, a former brigadier in the British army, and a land warfare expert at the International Institute of Strategic Studies, said: “A head of government should have better things to do than make military decisions. They should be setting the political strategy rather than getting bogged down in day to day activity”.