The Ukraine war thread

[George K]

War crime:

[George K]

Russia’s long shot in the Donbas

On the other hand, it’s difficult to believe in the success of the larger plan to surround the Ukrainian grouping in Donbas, even with full deployment of available reserves. The frontline that stretches from Staryi Saltiv near Kharkiv to Kamianske near Zaporizhzhia is close to 600 kilometers (approximately 400 miles) in length. If the Russian forces succeed in surrounding the Ukrainian fighters (and they would have to advance by about 120 kilometers, or roughly 75 miles, in order to accomplish this), the two encirclement fronts — the internal and the external one — would add more than 200 kilometers, or over 125 miles, to the frontline’s total length.

According to the theory taught in Russian military schools, a motorized infantry battalion’s offensive strip should not comprise more than two kilometers, or just over a mile (assuming that there is direct contact with neighbors on the flanks). It follows that an operation on the scale just discussed would require at least 400 such battalions. Meanwhile, each Russian battalion tactical group (the battalion with its support units: communications, electronics, and artillery) consists of 700–900 servicemen. In other words, a successful offensive in the Donbas alone would require at least 300,000 Russian soldiers.

Meanwhile, experts estimate that no more than 70–80 battalion tactical groups — that is, no more than 60,000 Russian servicemen — are operational in all of Ukraine. In early March, the overall grouping numbered no more than 100,000 combatants, albeit without considering the additional forces of the LNR, DNR, and Russia’s National Guard.

[George K]

Not sure if he's right, but he's not the only one saying this.

Another thread on how badly things are going for the Russians.

[Jolly]

We've also heard the Russian soldiers have been cannibalizing all kinds of electronics, trying to find spare parts for their breaking equipment...

[George K]

A fascinating thread on the botched river crossing by the Russians. Lots of theory on securing the location, obscuring what you're doing, etc.

How it worked out for the Russians:

A more in depth analysis of what went wrong here.

[George K]

Fake News?

[Renauda]

[Aqua Letifer]

@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:

@George-K

I don’t think it’s fake news but it is not call up to arms. Rather, it is call for women with specified civilian qualifications and experience to step forward for the DPR defence force. They are looking for bookkeepers, controllers, drivers, janitors, bus drivers, nurses and cooks.

For now. My bet is Russia's military will grow as the propaganda machine wins over more Russians.

[Renauda]

@Aqua-Letifer

I would argue that the propaganda machine already reached its peak and as time goes on its effectiveness will diminish. A declared “Russian victory” or at least “mission accomplished” will be the only way for the Kremlin to end the erosion.

[Mik]

I'd agree with that. Disillusionment is already spreading from what I read (and I'm quite sure we're helping that along). Short of nukes there doesn't seem to be any arrows left in his quiver, and I doubt he is mad enough to use them. I suspect if he were it would already have been done.

[Aqua Letifer]

@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:

@Aqua-Letifer

I would argue that the propaganda machine already reached its peak and as time goes on its effectiveness will diminish. A declared “Russian victory” or at least “mission accomplished” will be the only way for the Kremlin to end the erosion.

I'd very much enjoy being proven wrong.

[George K]

GroPos

[George K]

"Russia has now likely suffered losses of one third of the ground combat force it committed in February."

[Jolly]

Two predictions:

1. In the near future, Russia will declare victory and cease combat operations.
2. It's not going to be pleasant for any Russian supporters left within the borders if Ukraine, democracy be damned.

[George K]

[George K]

You keep using that word 'goal.' It does not mean what you think it means...

[Klaus]

To me it sounds like the preparation for a subsequent "We have eliminated the Nazi threat, hence we are done and can go home" statement to cover up the defeat.

[George K]

@Klaus yup.

Just like the "we NEVER intended to take Kyiv. Our real goal was the liberation of the East."

[Renauda]

I agree with both of you. Seems to me also that he is saying that what remains of Ukraine can go ahead and remain a militarised and nazified puppet of the USA. All this was the USA’s fault anyway.

Cold War rules, baby: Brezhnev Doctrine Revisited.

[George K]

"Are you a patriot?"