The Ukraine war thread

[Renauda]

[Renauda]

@Jolly said in The Ukraine war thread:

I'd concentrate on the refineries. Oil and gas are Russia's economic lifeblood.

Maybe not that much:

However, Vakulenko noted that this may not impact the state budget because Russia can compensate for decreases in refined petroleum product exports by increasing its export of crude oil. Additionally, the companies that own the refineries continue to pay an oil extraction tax despite the attacks.

“Some people think that by attacking oil refineries, the related export revenue disappears, but that is not true. It just turns into revenue from crude oil export,” Vakulenko told The Moscow Times.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/04/08/are-ukrainian-drone-attacks-on-oil-refineries-hindering-russias-war-machine-a84772

[Renauda]

Coffee time. An interview with Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges. The general pulls no punches. A wake up call to Americans:

Link to video

[Renauda]

Russian use of the double tap strikes. Essentially strike your civilian target , wait long enough for first responders to arrive on the scene and organise then strike the target one or two times more. Excellent way to win the hearts and minds of good people:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68761490

[George K]

@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:

the double tap strikes

Didn't the Germans use a similar tactic in London?

[Renauda]

Not sure or better, not sure they could even if they wanted. True enough though that Gerry would send multiple waves of bombers on target areas during the course of many blitz missions. Still nothing compared to a double tap precision weapon strike on a specific targets of today. Aerial bombing was just not that accurate or precise in WWII. Stuka diver bombers had some degree of accuracy (depending on the skill of the pilot) but were limited by their speed, range and were totally defenceless to Hurricanes and Spits.

[Renauda]

So this is where it stands:

"We know that many countries are sitting on large piles of Patriot systems, maybe not wanting to deliver it directly," Rutte said after arriving at the two-day summit of EU leaders in Brussels.

"We can buy it from them, we can deliver it to Ukraine, we have the money available. It's crucial."

https://kyivindependent.com/dutch-pm-offers-to-buy-patriot-systems-from-allies-for-ukraine/

The Danish Defense Ministry announced on April 16 a new 2.2 billion kroner ($313 million) military aid package for Ukraine. The package includes 200 million Danish kroner ($28.5 million) earmarked for purchases from Ukraine's defense industry.

"This is the first and so far unprecedented decision to purchase military products from Ukrainian manufacturers at the expense of another country," the Strategic Industries Ministry said in a statement.

https://kyivindependent.com/denmark-first-to-buy-weapons-for-ukraine-from-ukrainian-manufacturer-in-deal-worth-28-5-million/

[Mik]

Not sure I understand how this helps Ukraine. Are they producing surplus of some weaponry?

[Renauda]

I think that the Danes are purchasing from the Ukrainian supplier on behalf of the government in Kyiv. There’s no money in the coffers to pay for these weapons to keep the manufacturers in business.

[Mik]

Makes sense.

[Wim]

Trump on Ukraine. Wonder what made him adjust his stance...

https://www.reuters.com/world/donald-trump-says-ukraines-survival-is-important-us-2024-04-18/

[taiwan_girl]

@Wim Votes in the upcoming election?

I still dont get this blind allegiance to President Trump, as if he is some kind of "savant" who is smarter than everybody else. "OMG - President Trump said this/endorses this so it must be correct."

[Renauda]

In the last week Trump has met with both the British Foreign Secretary and the Polish Foreign Minister. Those meetings may have had an impact on Trump’s thinking on the Ukraine issue in the immediate short term. Likewise he sees how the GOP has divided itself over Ukraine aid issue.

Fair enough that he wants NATO members to meet or exceed their commitments for defence. That is reasonable. As for European assistance to Ukraine, I doubt that he has a clear understanding of the extent of European assistance beyond arms. Trump’s meetings with Cameron and Duda might have disproved some misconceptions and assumptions. Who’s to know? Will have to see who and what else takes his ear, to know where he wants to take this.

[Wim]

I had forgotten that Trump already met Polish president Duda in 2019. They share a lot of political ideas 🥴

[Renauda]

@Wim

Thanks for the correction. I confused Duda with Sikorski. Also forgot that the former was still president of Poland. In any case, unlike Orban, Duda at least understands that Putin will never negotiate in good faith over Ukraine (or really anything) and that Russia is a real threat to global security that must be contained and kept contained. On other political topics though I am sure he and Trump are good friends.

[Mik]

A wakeup call for the west.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ubn-the-us-needs-to-wake-up/ar-AA1niizP?ocid=msedgntp&pc=LCTS&cvid=f17d0d3896f84870e2083c032784dcbe&ei=10

[Renauda]

A page out of the Stalin playbook. First you put the party or state official on notice by arresting his deputy and getting a confession. You then follow that up by arresting the official at a future time and place of your choosing:

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/04/24/defense-officials-bribery-arrest-signals-shoigus-waning-influence-in-the-kremlin-a84946

Stayed tuned, there will be more to come…

[Renauda]

Petulant bastards:

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/05/04/russia-adds-zelensky-to-criminal-wanted-list-a85036

[George K]

Things are going badly:

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-fortifications-8a72981dfdb755de6f8011b13f4d062e

[Jolly]

Russia is fighting as Russia does. And unless Europe steps up bigly, Russia will win this war and take however much of Ukraine they want within the next 24 months.