The Ukraine war thread
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Damn.
@Jon said in The Ukraine war thread:
Damn.
Each side is accusing the other, of course. However, from what I've read, this limits Ukraine's ability to cross the river and execute their counter-offensive.
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It doesn't make much sense for anyone but Russia to be behind it.
https://www.irishtimes.com/world/europe/2023/06/06/why-is-the-nova-kakhovka-dam-so-important/
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It doesn't make much sense for anyone but Russia to be behind it.
https://www.irishtimes.com/world/europe/2023/06/06/why-is-the-nova-kakhovka-dam-so-important/
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I clearly remember a time not all that long ago when there was a similar fear that the USSR would collapse. I was even sent to DC to attend a conference discussing the various scenarios and consequences of a collapse. Plenty of gloom and doom in those presentations.
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They might want to rethink the dam thing. It's not working out real well.
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Wagner chief makes some predictions about the Ukraine war ...
I don't get why this Wagner chief keeps making public statements about the Ukraine war. What is there for him to gain from making these public statements?
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Wagner chief makes some predictions about the Ukraine war ...
I don't get why this Wagner chief keeps making public statements about the Ukraine war. What is there for him to gain from making these public statements?
@Axtremus said in The Ukraine war thread:
In order to watch a 54 second news report, I had to watch a 30 second advertisement. Thanks, CNN.
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Analysis of dam destruction:
https://www.dw.com/en/russians-likely-underestimated-flood-impact-military-expert/video-65848035
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From ISW on the dam:
The destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) dam is significantly changing the geography and topography of the Kherson frontline sector in southern Ukraine. Near-infrared (NIR) imagery captured at 0400 am ET on June 7 indicates that the flooding is heavily disrupting Russian prepared defensive positions on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River – especially affecting Russian first-line positions in Hola Prystan and Oleshky. Various sources reported that Oleshky, Hola Prystan, Kozacha Laheri, and Dnipryany are almost entirely flooded with water levels rising to the height of a one-story buildings in some areas.[1] The Ukrainian headquarters established to remediate the consequences of the dam’s destruction reported that as of June 7 29 settlements are partially or fully flooded, 19 of which are located on the Ukrainian-controlled territory and 10 on Russian occupied territories.[2] Russian sources published footage indicating that water had begun receding in Nova Kakhovka and had dropped by 30cm.[3] Russian sources also claimed that water levels decreased by three to four meters in some areas from a high of 10 meters.[4] Water levels in nearby Mykolaiv City reportedly increased by 70cm as of June 7.[5] Flooding will likely worsen and further change the geography in Kherson Oblast over the next 72 hours.
The destruction of the KHPP dam is affecting Russian military positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. The flooding has destroyed many Russian first line field fortifications that the Russian military intended to use to defend against Ukrainian attacks. Rapid flooding has likely forced Russian personnel and military equipment in Russian main concentration points in Oleshky and Hola Prystan to withdraw. Russian forces had previously used these positions to shell Kherson City and other settlements on the west (right bank) of Kherson. Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Nataliya Humenyuk stated that Russian forces relocated their personnel and military equipment from five to 15 kilometers from the flood zone, which places Russian forces out of artillery range of some settlements on the west (right bank) of the Dnipro River they had been attacking.[6] The flood also destroyed Russian minefields along the coast, with footage showing mines exploding in the flood water.[7] Kherson Oblast Occupation Head Vladimir Saldo, however, claimed that the destruction of the KHPP is beneficial to the Russian defenses because it will complicate Ukrainian advances across the river.[8] Saldo’s assessment of the situation ignores the loss of Russia’s first line of prepared fortifications. The amount of Russian heavy equipment lost in the first 24 hours of flooding is also unclear.
Either this was a decision by Ukraine to take it out to achieve strategic advantage, or a huge blunder by Russia. Given this history of this war, I'd guess the latter.
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Drone crashes into residential building in Russia’s Voronezh
Photos of the residential complex allegedly damaged during the attack appeared on Telegram. Preliminary information suggests the drone may have been flying towards the Baltimor airfield but collided with a window of a residential building, reported pro-Russian channel Baza
Russia was quick to blame Ukraine, with Dmitry Peskov, the spokesperson for Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, making the accusation, Russian propagandist media reported.
"The Kyiv regime continues to attack civilian infrastructure and residential buildings. The activities of the Kyiv regime persist, and we continue to fight against it," Peskov lied.
The balls...
"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08
The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.
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As a former tank commander, I can say one thing for certain: Putin’s demoralised conscripts are utterly unprepared for the shock action now hitting their lines. Ukrainian armoured formations are beginning to meet Russian forces in battle, and they are going to pulverise Russia’s defensive lines. I am confident for one simple reason: Ukraine will follow the Western ideology of manoeuvre warfare in a combined arms context, while the Russians will follow Soviet doctrine, relying on attrition and numbers. The Russians will find that the armour of Western tanks is far more resilient than flesh and bone, they will die in great numbers, and they will lose.
The core idea of manoeuvre warfare is mission command. Commanders at all levels understand the top-level end state, and are given the flexibility to conduct the battle as they see fit to achieve victory. The Ukrainians are well-versed in this style of warfare, which allows them to be agile and adapt their plan to the situation on the battlefield as it unfolds and changes. The Russians do not follow this doctrine. They are given strict roles in the execution of plans drawn up at the top, and cannot change them even when things are going badly wrong. This has been made evident time and time again in Ukraine, where Moscow’s tanks have all too often been blown to pieces without firing a round.
Getting this form of warfare right takes intelligence and training. You need the right equipment, and effective doctrine. The Ukrainians have this. I estimate that their tank brigades have had around eight weeks to perfect combined arms warfare, around the same time I would have allocated to train the Royal Tank Regiment under my command to be an effective combined arms fighting force. And they certainly have the right equipment. The Challenger and Leopard tanks leading the spearhead vastly outmatch what’s left of Russia’s heavy armour, while sophisticated precision artillery is providing withering fire for the advance.
Conversely, Russian recruits appear to be given a few days of training, a little ammunition and are then thrown into the meat-grinder with a life expectancy surely measured in days. They might as well be gunning them down on the training fields; it would be faster, cheaper and about as combat effective.
There will certainly be no rescue from the air. The Russian air force should be a massive operational threat, but it seems that its pilots have opted to hide in the confines of the officers’ mess rather than face the excellent Ukrainian air defences. Sometimes, cowardice is the most sensible option.
The final and perhaps the most important element of an effective armoured fighting force is morale. The Ukrainians have this in spades. The Russian conscripts have virtually none. From personal experience, having fought a number of battles, I know you need to really want to get out of the trench to fight the enemy. It’s certainly not an easy or natural act.
With Ukrainian canniness, Western intelligence and equipment and a smattering of good fortune, I expect what’s left of the Russian army to be nothing more than a speed bump on the way to liberating Crimea, pushing to the Russian border and chucking Putin’s war criminals out of Ukraine once and for all.
Much like Adolf Hitler at the end of his war, Putin appears to be holed up in his bunker, being fed lies, making the wrong decisions while the sharks circle. What’s unfolding in Ukraine now could go down in history as one of the great tank actions, alongside Cambrai, Kursk and the Arras counterattack. It will certainly go down as the end of Moscow’s illegal invasion – and perhaps the beginning of the end of Putin
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Don't think the Ukrainians have enough armor or experience to do full combined arms maneuver warfare. I also think the Russians are using cannon fodder on the front, holding their better troops for the counter punch.
That would be classic WW2 Soviet doctrine...
“Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”
Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton
