The Ukraine war thread
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https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1665377461566160898.html
Mikhail Khodaryonok was one of the few Russian state media voices who warned about the difficulties of invading Ukraine before February 2022
Here's what he has to say now /1
Khodaryonok admits that Russia lacks the resources to defend Belgorod, and highlights how Belgorod officials have attacked the Russian Defence Ministry on this
Khodaryonok calls for additional fortifications in Grayvoron and Shebekino /2
Khodaryonok wants air power and artillery to be taken to defend the Russia-Ukraine border. This is how serious the threat is
He says they need to be either taken from frontline areas like Kherson, Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia or from the reserves of the Russian military /3
Khodaryonok warns that Ukraine will carry out Shebekino-style incursions in other regions of Russia to stretch their forces across a 1,500km
These operations will be followed by a serious Ukrainian counter-offensive /4
Khodaryonok's commentary spurred extreme reactions on Russian state TV
Alexander Shpakovsky called for an end to the SVO and the start of the Great Patriotic War where all Russians need to participate
The sense of alarm is real after the Belgorod attack /END
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Something definitely percolating there. Not only with armed forces but PsyOps as well:
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/06/05/radio-waves-air-fake-putin-state-of-war-address-a81403
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Damn.
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@Jon said in The Ukraine war thread:
Damn.
Each side is accusing the other, of course. However, from what I've read, this limits Ukraine's ability to cross the river and execute their counter-offensive.
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It doesn't make much sense for anyone but Russia to be behind it.
https://www.irishtimes.com/world/europe/2023/06/06/why-is-the-nova-kakhovka-dam-so-important/
"My pronouns are FA/FO." - Mik, 2024
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I clearly remember a time not all that long ago when there was a similar fear that the USSR would collapse. I was even sent to DC to attend a conference discussing the various scenarios and consequences of a collapse. Plenty of gloom and doom in those presentations.
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"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08
The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.
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They might want to rethink the dam thing. It's not working out real well.
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Wagner chief makes some predictions about the Ukraine war ...
I don't get why this Wagner chief keeps making public statements about the Ukraine war. What is there for him to gain from making these public statements?
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@Axtremus said in The Ukraine war thread:
In order to watch a 54 second news report, I had to watch a 30 second advertisement. Thanks, CNN.
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Analysis of dam destruction:
https://www.dw.com/en/russians-likely-underestimated-flood-impact-military-expert/video-65848035
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From ISW on the dam:
The destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) dam is significantly changing the geography and topography of the Kherson frontline sector in southern Ukraine. Near-infrared (NIR) imagery captured at 0400 am ET on June 7 indicates that the flooding is heavily disrupting Russian prepared defensive positions on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River – especially affecting Russian first-line positions in Hola Prystan and Oleshky. Various sources reported that Oleshky, Hola Prystan, Kozacha Laheri, and Dnipryany are almost entirely flooded with water levels rising to the height of a one-story buildings in some areas.[1] The Ukrainian headquarters established to remediate the consequences of the dam’s destruction reported that as of June 7 29 settlements are partially or fully flooded, 19 of which are located on the Ukrainian-controlled territory and 10 on Russian occupied territories.[2] Russian sources published footage indicating that water had begun receding in Nova Kakhovka and had dropped by 30cm.[3] Russian sources also claimed that water levels decreased by three to four meters in some areas from a high of 10 meters.[4] Water levels in nearby Mykolaiv City reportedly increased by 70cm as of June 7.[5] Flooding will likely worsen and further change the geography in Kherson Oblast over the next 72 hours.
The destruction of the KHPP dam is affecting Russian military positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. The flooding has destroyed many Russian first line field fortifications that the Russian military intended to use to defend against Ukrainian attacks. Rapid flooding has likely forced Russian personnel and military equipment in Russian main concentration points in Oleshky and Hola Prystan to withdraw. Russian forces had previously used these positions to shell Kherson City and other settlements on the west (right bank) of Kherson. Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Nataliya Humenyuk stated that Russian forces relocated their personnel and military equipment from five to 15 kilometers from the flood zone, which places Russian forces out of artillery range of some settlements on the west (right bank) of the Dnipro River they had been attacking.[6] The flood also destroyed Russian minefields along the coast, with footage showing mines exploding in the flood water.[7] Kherson Oblast Occupation Head Vladimir Saldo, however, claimed that the destruction of the KHPP is beneficial to the Russian defenses because it will complicate Ukrainian advances across the river.[8] Saldo’s assessment of the situation ignores the loss of Russia’s first line of prepared fortifications. The amount of Russian heavy equipment lost in the first 24 hours of flooding is also unclear.
Either this was a decision by Ukraine to take it out to achieve strategic advantage, or a huge blunder by Russia. Given this history of this war, I'd guess the latter.
