The Ukraine war thread
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Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Will Likely Stall
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U.S. government does not have every confidence that Ukraine is going to prevail. Here is the actual assessment of U.S. intelligence, according to the Washington Post this morning:
Ukraine’s challenges in massing troops, ammunition and equipment could cause its military to fall “well short” of Kyiv’s original goals for an anticipated counteroffensive aimed at retaking Russian-occupied areas this spring, according to U.S. intelligence assessments contained in a growing leak of classified documents revealing Washington’s misgivings about the state of the war.
Labeled “top secret,” the bleak assessment from early February warns of significant “force generation and sustainment shortfalls,” and the likelihood that such an operation will result in only “modest territorial gains.” It’s a marked departure from the Biden administration’s public statements about the vitality of Ukraine’s military and is likely to embolden critics who feel the United States and NATO should do more to push for a negotiated settlement to the conflict.
The document adds that, “Enduring Ukrainian deficiencies in training and munitions supplies probably will strain progress and exacerbate casualties during the offensive.”
As I said yesterday, this is bad. It is bad that this assessment leaked; it is bad that this assessment of Ukraine’s abilities in the spring offensive are so modest or grim; it is bad that apparently lots of foreign-policy experts have doubts about the administration’s approach but are afraid to say so publicly; and it is bad that Biden’s public assessment of the war in Ukraine is the same rosy-eyed, unrealistic optimism that characterized his assessment of Afghanistan, inflation, migrants crossing the border, and the Chinese spy balloon. The president is always telling us that things are going great and that we have nothing to worry about, and a little later, we learn that the truth is the opposite...
the Egyptian government also explored the option of secretly selling rockets to Russia, according to the leaked documents:
President Abdel Fatah El-Sisi of Egypt, one of America’s closest allies in the Middle East and a major recipient of U.S. aid, recently ordered subordinates to produce up to 40,000 rockets to be covertly shipped to Russia, according to a leaked U.S. intelligence document.
A portion of a top secret document, dated Feb. 17, summarizes purported conversations between Sisi and senior Egyptian military officials and also references plans to supply Russia with artillery rounds and gunpowder. In the document, Sisi instructs the officials to keep the production and shipment of the rockets secret “to avoid problems with the West...”
Last month, this newsletter noted that immediately after the downing of the MQ-9 Reaper drone, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin called his Russian counterpart and told him that the “United States will fly and operate wherever international law allows,” including in air space near Ukraine. Then, a week later, the administration revealed that the drones have altered their routes and are staying further away from Ukraine “to avoid being too provocative.”
The leaked documents suggest that the U.S. is now keeping its drones about 50 miles from the Crimean coast:
A map on the document shows a boundary drawn over sections of the Black Sea to mark where surveillance planes may fly. It appears to begin about 12 miles off the coast of Crimea, adhering to international law. The map also includes a second line about 50 miles from the shore labeled “SECDEF Directed Standoff,” indicating that Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin may have ordered U.S. pilots to keep aircraft farther from the peninsula.
The administration is not playing it straight with the American public when it comes to Ukraine. An inability to see the situation clearly and communicate the situation without any sugarcoating is a formula for long-term problems.
"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08
The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.
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“Little by little I am learning the art of being quite content by doing very little slowly” ~ Lionel Hardcastle
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@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
More on the leak:
"U.S. intelligence appears to have penetrated nearly every Russian military body including the General Staff, the Defense Ministry and the GRU military intelligence agency, as well as the private mercenary group Wagner."
ORLY...
"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08
The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.
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Russian spy ship doing what it does:
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From today’s issue Moscow Times:
The Kremlin said Thursday it welcomed any attempt to end the Ukrainian conflict, on Moscow's terms, a day after the leaders of China and Ukraine had their first call since the offensive.
"We are ready to welcome anything that can bring forward the end of the conflict in Ukraine and the achievement of Russia's goals," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.
In other words, the Kremlin is not interested.
“Little by little I am learning the art of being quite content by doing very little slowly” ~ Lionel Hardcastle
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@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
From today’s issue Moscow Times:
The Kremlin said Thursday it welcomed any attempt to end the Ukrainian conflict, on Moscow's terms, a day after the leaders of China and Ukraine had their first call since the offensive.
"We are ready to welcome anything that can bring forward the end of the conflict in Ukraine and the achievement of Russia's goals," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.
In other words, the Kremlin is not interested.
What a blatantly ridiculous statement.
"Give us what we want and we'll stop killing people."
(The Kremlin, not you @Renauda !)
"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08
The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.
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@George-K said in The Ukraine war thread:
@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
From today’s issue Moscow Times:
The Kremlin said Thursday it welcomed any attempt to end the Ukrainian conflict, on Moscow's terms, a day after the leaders of China and Ukraine had their first call since the offensive.
"We are ready to welcome anything that can bring forward the end of the conflict in Ukraine and the achievement of Russia's goals," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.
In other words, the Kremlin is not interested.
What a blatantly ridiculous statement.
"Give us what we want and we'll stop killing people."
Indeed, I believe the term for it is called extortion.
Gangster diplomacy from a mafia regime.
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They keep posting stuff like this as if it is significant. The one guy was 78, the other had suffered a serious illness for some time. Innuendo.
"My pronouns are FA/FO." - Mik, 2024
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“Little by little I am learning the art of being quite content by doing very little slowly” ~ Lionel Hardcastle
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@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
I concur. The only time I pause is when the deceased are defenestrated, suddenly and inexplicably go into massive toxic shock or are found dead from multiple gunshot wounds.
Or mysteriously fall off a balcony. Twice.
Proud supporter of Plan 2525. Everything you think, do and say will be in the pill you took today.
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That too.
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