The Ukraine war thread
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Problematic polarization between Russia and Ukraine notwithstanding, it’s a hopeful assessment.
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wrote on 22 Feb 2023, 17:52 last edited by
My concern is what does Putin do if and when his conventional forces are exhausted and no victory in sight.
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My concern is what does Putin do if and when his conventional forces are exhausted and no victory in sight.
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wrote on 22 Feb 2023, 22:25 last edited by
Only had time to listen to half of it. He was talking about that when I had to leave. He made great points about it being a war of attrition and that we are not ramping up production. A mistake in my book.
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Only had time to listen to half of it. He was talking about that when I had to leave. He made great points about it being a war of attrition and that we are not ramping up production. A mistake in my book.
wrote on 22 Feb 2023, 22:37 last edited by RenaudaI agree, Kotkin makes a lot of sense regarding it being a war of attrition and just what that means to all parties. You’ll see how he ties everything together later on when he adds China into the mix of his analysis.
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wrote on 22 Feb 2023, 22:44 last edited by
Massively ramping up production would be a much bigger message than a trip to Kiev. I’m not dissing the trip, I just think that action would have spoken louder.
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wrote on 22 Feb 2023, 22:54 last edited by Renauda
I wager that all NATO members will soon have no choice other than to ramp up their military production and allocate fiscal resources into defence and security.
Will be a hard pill for the federal and even provincial governments in this country to have to swallow.
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wrote on 23 Feb 2023, 00:34 last edited by
Guns or butter.
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I wager that all NATO members will soon have no choice other than to ramp up their military production and allocate fiscal resources into defence and security.
Will be a hard pill for the federal and even provincial governments in this country to have to swallow.
wrote on 23 Feb 2023, 00:43 last edited by@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
I wager that all NATO members will soon have no choice other than to ramp up their military production and allocate fiscal resources into defence and security.
Will be a hard pill for the federal and even provincial governments in this country to have to swallow.
God, I hope they will.
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wrote on 23 Feb 2023, 00:45 last edited by Renauda
Constitutionally in this country guns are a federal responsibility and butter is a provincial responsibility. I see no problem provided both are willing to cut duplication and waste.
I wish it were as simple in practice as the constitution defines it.
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wrote on 23 Feb 2023, 13:17 last edited by
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wrote on 26 Feb 2023, 21:39 last edited by
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wrote on 27 Feb 2023, 13:12 last edited by
The story:
There has been quite the buzz this Sunday on social media about a supposed attack on a Russian A-50 Mainstay airborne early warning and control aircraft that is forward deployed to Machulishchy Air Base south of Minsk, in Belarus. We cannot confirm that this attack actually happened or the nature of the damage, if any, to the A-50 — the type has been a staple at the base throughout the war. But if it did occur, it would be a significant loss for the Russian Air Force and, depending on how it was carried out, it could be a sign of a developing front and what's to come in the now year-old war.
The image seen at the top of this article was taken on February 19th. It shows the A-50 in its usual spot at the Belarusian air base. Various claims state that the aircraft, a variant of the Il-76 quad-jet cargo transport, was attacked via drone and damaged if not destroyed. There are also claims that this was done by a partisan group inside Belarus, which would be a significant development if true.The target here is very important, regardless. The A-50s are very low-density, high-demand assets and are one of Russia's major advantages over Ukraine in terms of the air war. The A-50 provides general wide-area aerial surveillance and airborne command and control capabilities. Beyond this, and arguably most importantly, they provide the critical 'look-down' radar surveillance capability for Russia's air operations. As such, not only can they generate an 'air picture' deep into Ukraine, but this also includes detecting low-flying aircraft which far-off ground-based radars cannot see. This is the currently primary operating regime for Ukrainian aircraft anywhere near Russia's 'overlay' of complex anti-air capabilities that extends deep into Ukrainian-controlled territory.
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wrote on 27 Feb 2023, 13:21 last edited by
A summary of Russian (and Ukrainian) losses over the last year.
This one is of visually-confirmed losses.
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The story:
There has been quite the buzz this Sunday on social media about a supposed attack on a Russian A-50 Mainstay airborne early warning and control aircraft that is forward deployed to Machulishchy Air Base south of Minsk, in Belarus. We cannot confirm that this attack actually happened or the nature of the damage, if any, to the A-50 — the type has been a staple at the base throughout the war. But if it did occur, it would be a significant loss for the Russian Air Force and, depending on how it was carried out, it could be a sign of a developing front and what's to come in the now year-old war.
The image seen at the top of this article was taken on February 19th. It shows the A-50 in its usual spot at the Belarusian air base. Various claims state that the aircraft, a variant of the Il-76 quad-jet cargo transport, was attacked via drone and damaged if not destroyed. There are also claims that this was done by a partisan group inside Belarus, which would be a significant development if true.The target here is very important, regardless. The A-50s are very low-density, high-demand assets and are one of Russia's major advantages over Ukraine in terms of the air war. The A-50 provides general wide-area aerial surveillance and airborne command and control capabilities. Beyond this, and arguably most importantly, they provide the critical 'look-down' radar surveillance capability for Russia's air operations. As such, not only can they generate an 'air picture' deep into Ukraine, but this also includes detecting low-flying aircraft which far-off ground-based radars cannot see. This is the currently primary operating regime for Ukrainian aircraft anywhere near Russia's 'overlay' of complex anti-air capabilities that extends deep into Ukrainian-controlled territory.
wrote on 27 Feb 2023, 14:55 last edited byBelorussian opposition claim responsibility for drone attack on Russian aircraft:
https://www.rferl.org/amp/belarus-russia-plane-attacked-guerrillas-surveillance-/32290065.html
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wrote on 27 Feb 2023, 15:25 last edited by
Good idea. Plausible deniability for Ukraine.
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Not sure if plausible deniability matters in this case, or even exists in that part of world. The Russians seem to have gotten implausible deniability down to a matter of routine statecraft.
wrote on 27 Feb 2023, 19:56 last edited by@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
The Russians seem to have gotten implausible deniability down to a matter of routine statecraft.
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wrote on 28 Feb 2023, 03:19 last edited by
This got hardly any coverage last week. Good for the Latvians! Not often a diplomat tells the Russians to go fuck themselves: