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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. The Ukraine war thread

The Ukraine war thread

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  • MikM Mik

    Problematic polarization between Russia and Ukraine notwithstanding, it’s a hopeful assessment.

    RenaudaR Offline
    RenaudaR Offline
    Renauda
    wrote on last edited by Renauda
    #1424

    @Mik

    Check out my link with Stephen Kotkin’s analysis in the Bolton thread. A decidedly more sober assessment.

    Elbows up!

    1 Reply Last reply
    • MikM Offline
      MikM Offline
      Mik
      wrote on last edited by
      #1425

      My concern is what does Putin do if and when his conventional forces are exhausted and no victory in sight.

      “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

      RenaudaR 1 Reply Last reply
      • MikM Mik

        My concern is what does Putin do if and when his conventional forces are exhausted and no victory in sight.

        RenaudaR Offline
        RenaudaR Offline
        Renauda
        wrote on last edited by
        #1426

        @Mik

        That might prove to be the opportunity for a position of strength diplomatic solution imposing an armistice on both sides. That is more or less Kotkin’s solution in the link.

        Elbows up!

        1 Reply Last reply
        • MikM Offline
          MikM Offline
          Mik
          wrote on last edited by
          #1427

          Only had time to listen to half of it. He was talking about that when I had to leave. He made great points about it being a war of attrition and that we are not ramping up production. A mistake in my book.

          “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

          RenaudaR 1 Reply Last reply
          • MikM Mik

            Only had time to listen to half of it. He was talking about that when I had to leave. He made great points about it being a war of attrition and that we are not ramping up production. A mistake in my book.

            RenaudaR Offline
            RenaudaR Offline
            Renauda
            wrote on last edited by Renauda
            #1428

            @Mik

            I agree, Kotkin makes a lot of sense regarding it being a war of attrition and just what that means to all parties. You’ll see how he ties everything together later on when he adds China into the mix of his analysis.

            Elbows up!

            1 Reply Last reply
            • MikM Offline
              MikM Offline
              Mik
              wrote on last edited by
              #1429

              Massively ramping up production would be a much bigger message than a trip to Kiev. I’m not dissing the trip, I just think that action would have spoken louder.

              “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

              1 Reply Last reply
              • RenaudaR Offline
                RenaudaR Offline
                Renauda
                wrote on last edited by Renauda
                #1430

                I wager that all NATO members will soon have no choice other than to ramp up their military production and allocate fiscal resources into defence and security.

                Will be a hard pill for the federal and even provincial governments in this country to have to swallow.

                Elbows up!

                MikM 1 Reply Last reply
                • JollyJ Offline
                  JollyJ Offline
                  Jolly
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #1431

                  Guns or butter.

                  “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                  Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                  RenaudaR 1 Reply Last reply
                  • RenaudaR Renauda

                    I wager that all NATO members will soon have no choice other than to ramp up their military production and allocate fiscal resources into defence and security.

                    Will be a hard pill for the federal and even provincial governments in this country to have to swallow.

                    MikM Offline
                    MikM Offline
                    Mik
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #1432

                    @Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:

                    I wager that all NATO members will soon have no choice other than to ramp up their military production and allocate fiscal resources into defence and security.

                    Will be a hard pill for the federal and even provincial governments in this country to have to swallow.

                    God, I hope they will.

                    “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • JollyJ Jolly

                      Guns or butter.

                      RenaudaR Offline
                      RenaudaR Offline
                      Renauda
                      wrote on last edited by Renauda
                      #1433

                      @Jolly

                      Constitutionally in this country guns are a federal responsibility and butter is a provincial responsibility. I see no problem provided both are willing to cut duplication and waste.

                      I wish it were as simple in practice as the constitution defines it.

                      Elbows up!

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • George KG Offline
                        George KG Offline
                        George K
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #1434

                        "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                        The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • RenaudaR Offline
                          RenaudaR Offline
                          Renauda
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #1435

                          https://globalnews.ca/news/9505763/ukrainian-flag-paint-road-russian-embassy-london/amp/

                          Elbows up!

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • W Offline
                            W Offline
                            Wim
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #1436

                            Lukashenko in trouble?

                            https://wyborcza.pl/7,75399,29505280,czy-bialoruscy-partyzanci-zniszczyli-rosjanom-samolot-wczesnego.html#S.MT-K.C-B.1-L.1.duzy

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • George KG Offline
                              George KG Offline
                              George K
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #1437

                              The story:

                              https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/claims-swirl-around-supposed-strike-on-russian-a-50-radar-jet-in-belarus

                              There has been quite the buzz this Sunday on social media about a supposed attack on a Russian A-50 Mainstay airborne early warning and control aircraft that is forward deployed to Machulishchy Air Base south of Minsk, in Belarus. We cannot confirm that this attack actually happened or the nature of the damage, if any, to the A-50 — the type has been a staple at the base throughout the war. But if it did occur, it would be a significant loss for the Russian Air Force and, depending on how it was carried out, it could be a sign of a developing front and what's to come in the now year-old war.
                              The image seen at the top of this article was taken on February 19th. It shows the A-50 in its usual spot at the Belarusian air base. Various claims state that the aircraft, a variant of the Il-76 quad-jet cargo transport, was attacked via drone and damaged if not destroyed. There are also claims that this was done by a partisan group inside Belarus, which would be a significant development if true.

                              The target here is very important, regardless. The A-50s are very low-density, high-demand assets and are one of Russia's major advantages over Ukraine in terms of the air war. The A-50 provides general wide-area aerial surveillance and airborne command and control capabilities. Beyond this, and arguably most importantly, they provide the critical 'look-down' radar surveillance capability for Russia's air operations. As such, not only can they generate an 'air picture' deep into Ukraine, but this also includes detecting low-flying aircraft which far-off ground-based radars cannot see. This is the currently primary operating regime for Ukrainian aircraft anywhere near Russia's 'overlay' of complex anti-air capabilities that extends deep into Ukrainian-controlled territory.

                              "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                              The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                              RenaudaR 1 Reply Last reply
                              • George KG Offline
                                George KG Offline
                                George K
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #1438

                                A summary of Russian (and Ukrainian) losses over the last year.

                                Screenshot 2023-02-27 at 7.17.40 AM.png

                                Screenshot 2023-02-27 at 7.18.38 AM.png

                                This one is of visually-confirmed losses.

                                Screenshot 2023-02-27 at 7.19.06 AM.png

                                "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                                The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                                1 Reply Last reply
                                • George KG George K

                                  The story:

                                  https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/claims-swirl-around-supposed-strike-on-russian-a-50-radar-jet-in-belarus

                                  There has been quite the buzz this Sunday on social media about a supposed attack on a Russian A-50 Mainstay airborne early warning and control aircraft that is forward deployed to Machulishchy Air Base south of Minsk, in Belarus. We cannot confirm that this attack actually happened or the nature of the damage, if any, to the A-50 — the type has been a staple at the base throughout the war. But if it did occur, it would be a significant loss for the Russian Air Force and, depending on how it was carried out, it could be a sign of a developing front and what's to come in the now year-old war.
                                  The image seen at the top of this article was taken on February 19th. It shows the A-50 in its usual spot at the Belarusian air base. Various claims state that the aircraft, a variant of the Il-76 quad-jet cargo transport, was attacked via drone and damaged if not destroyed. There are also claims that this was done by a partisan group inside Belarus, which would be a significant development if true.

                                  The target here is very important, regardless. The A-50s are very low-density, high-demand assets and are one of Russia's major advantages over Ukraine in terms of the air war. The A-50 provides general wide-area aerial surveillance and airborne command and control capabilities. Beyond this, and arguably most importantly, they provide the critical 'look-down' radar surveillance capability for Russia's air operations. As such, not only can they generate an 'air picture' deep into Ukraine, but this also includes detecting low-flying aircraft which far-off ground-based radars cannot see. This is the currently primary operating regime for Ukrainian aircraft anywhere near Russia's 'overlay' of complex anti-air capabilities that extends deep into Ukrainian-controlled territory.

                                  RenaudaR Offline
                                  RenaudaR Offline
                                  Renauda
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #1439

                                  @George-K

                                  Belorussian opposition claim responsibility for drone attack on Russian aircraft:

                                  https://www.rferl.org/amp/belarus-russia-plane-attacked-guerrillas-surveillance-/32290065.html

                                  Elbows up!

                                  1 Reply Last reply
                                  • MikM Offline
                                    MikM Offline
                                    Mik
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #1440

                                    Good idea. Plausible deniability for Ukraine.

                                    “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                                    RenaudaR 1 Reply Last reply
                                    • MikM Mik

                                      Good idea. Plausible deniability for Ukraine.

                                      RenaudaR Offline
                                      RenaudaR Offline
                                      Renauda
                                      wrote on last edited by Renauda
                                      #1441

                                      @Mik

                                      Not sure if plausible deniability matters in this case, or even exists in that part of world. The Russians seem to have gotten implausible deniability down to a matter of routine statecraft.

                                      Elbows up!

                                      George KG 1 Reply Last reply
                                      • RenaudaR Renauda

                                        @Mik

                                        Not sure if plausible deniability matters in this case, or even exists in that part of world. The Russians seem to have gotten implausible deniability down to a matter of routine statecraft.

                                        George KG Offline
                                        George KG Offline
                                        George K
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #1442

                                        @Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:

                                        The Russians seem to have gotten implausible deniability down to a matter of routine statecraft.

                                        alt text

                                        "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                                        The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                                        1 Reply Last reply
                                        • RenaudaR Offline
                                          RenaudaR Offline
                                          Renauda
                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #1443

                                          This got hardly any coverage last week. Good for the Latvians! Not often a diplomat tells the Russians to go fuck themselves:

                                          https://www.ukrainianworldcongress.org/osce-pa-latvian-delegate-reminded-russia-about-its-warship-as-its-destination/

                                          Elbows up!

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